Who plays this AKs situation differently?

[allinwid22]

hello all my first post on 2+2, if this belongs in the Beginners forum or elsewhere please move.
I play mostly low stake MTTs and have an overall ROI of about 3% over ~300 games. I have a hell of a time w/ my AK hands. I slow play, get sucked out. I push PF, get beat or no one calls. How do you guys play this hand?
2$ tourney, 200 from the bubble, MP2 has been absorbing stacks of opportunity, no read on sb. here is the HH:
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (8 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Button (t3425)
SB (t5015)
BB (t11120)
UTG (t3640)
UTG+1 (t515)
Hero (t2890)
MP2 (t8280)
CO (t3150)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t450</font>, MP2 calls t450, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls t375, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (t1500) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t150</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t2440</font>, MP2 calls t2440, SB folds.

Turn: (t6530) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: (t6530) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: t6530

Sorry the the moranicness of this question, but I am to the point of folding this hand pf. flame away.

[MJBuddy]

I think you played this correctly, actually.

If he has you beat, so be it. If not, you got your money in on a really good hand.

[OatmealJoe]

Looks good to me. I'd play it the same.

[Killingbird]

I think you played it correctly as well. If he has AA or KK he's reraising you PF and probably the same with QQ. If he has JJ here then so be it, you still have outs.

I will say though that this smells alot of A 10 which would make for a brutal river.

[allinwid22]

you called it, ace ten.
I needed to go to bed anyway
Thanks

[ItalianFX]

You played it right, just got unlucky.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 85.000% 83.93% 01.07% 333982 4245.50 { AdKd }
Hand 1: 15.000% 13.93% 01.07% 55443 4245.50 { ATs, ATo }

You definitely got in ahead here.

[Sherman]

People are saying you played it correctly, but I disagree.

ZOMG you have TPTK. So what. What do you beat that your opponents could possibly hold?

What I am saying is that your flop shove is certain -EV. The only hand that can call you that you are beating is AT. Everyone is assuming your opponents had AT which may or may not be true. It looks more to me like MP had AQ or AJ.

You raised PF w/AK. Your opponents likely holding are pocket pairs or weaker Aces. So long as your opponents aren't absolutely terrible (which they may be, I don't understand what you mean by MP2 absorbing stacks) your flop shove is certainly -EV.

Yeah, I can't think of a hand that calls your shove on the flop that you beat besides AT. I suppose Ax hands might call if your opponents are really bad, but otherwise, a smaller raise or smooth call on the flop were probably better.

[omaha]

With tptk and 1.5 pot bets behind, i cant think of playing it differently.

He may have 10 10 and is donking so you dont c bet.

Anyway, a standard cbet is going to commit us anyway, so we just shove it.

I have to disagree, while agreeing with the sherminator when he says
[ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I can't think of a hand that calls your shove on the flop that you beat besides AT.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that that is EXACTLY the reason we are shoving, because, in the vast, vast majority of the cases, our stack is increasing from 2400 to 4000, because we get the chippies!. Occasionally we run into the monsters, or get sucked out on

[TimberBee]

shermn27: You have to remember that this is a 2$ freezeout. People don't think. They have TP and go all in. Hell, many would probably call with just a king or a ten.

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
shermn27: You have to remember that this is a 2$ freezeout. People don't think. They have TP and go all in. Hell, many would probably call with just a king or a ten.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know it's a $2.00 FO. And your statment is wholly correct that people will call A/I with lots of hands in many situations.

But just think about this hand. Put Villain's (remember there are two in this hand) on ranges. Run pokerstove against them. We are not ahead shoving this flop.

I would be in absolute agreement if the flop were AT4, KJ3,
A87, etc. But this flop is AQJ. This is not a good flop for AK.

We don't have any reads that our opponents are terrible. If we did, shoving is fine, but I honestly think we are behind on this flop quite a bit. I can think of 4 hands that MP2 might CC preflop that crush us - AQ,AJ,QQ,JJ.

Other hands that might be in his range include AT,KQ,QJs, maybe some Ax type hands but readless we can't be sure. I'd also include all PPs from 22-TT. Now look at that range. What would villain call a shove on the flop with that we beat? What? Hardly anything. He is not (no matter if it is a $2 tournament) calling with any non-set pocket pairs. AT and KQ are the only hands I can see him maybe calling a flop shove with. That means against most of his range we are behind.

I know we don't have many chips, but this is a scary flop. If one were arguing, "well we just aren't deep enough to get away here," okay I might buy that. But seriously, we can't really believe our flop shove is for value readless.