$5.50 A9 all in on the bubble

[montagu]

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t120/t240
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t3470
Button: t2510
Hero: t3300
BB: t4220

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to t1000</font>, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in t3300</font>

was this completely donky?

[jotta]

I dont like your play..
Easy fold preflop.

[montagu]

thanks. guess i didn't need to risk it here. i think because i'd been raising so much i figured the villain would have lowered his range.

[Collin Moshman]

Hi Montagu,

By the time the blinds have reached 120/240 on FT, you should have a decent read on your remaining opponents. If your UTG is either passive or incapable of a pre-flop laydown, then you should fold. This is because a passive player making this raise has a hand that will very likely call you as a 70-30 favorite (AJ+, TT+ most common). If your opponent is not capable of a big pre-flop fold (or he has shown little or no bubble risk aversion), then you do not want to be gambling for all all your chips without a significant edge, which you will not have often in this spot.

But if your opponent is aggressive and capable of making a large raise and subsequent fold to avoid being bubble boy, and you think there is a reasonable chance he will go away faced with a reshove, then your push begins getting reasonable. You will risk 3300 to win 1240, so you are getting about 1:2.7 on your steal investment alone, not bad when you may even be a very minor dog (when called) against a hand like 8 8 or even a random bluff.

So in this hand, I would agree with the other comments and suggest a fold, unless Villain is (more rarely) both very aggressive and quite capable of making a big pre-flop laydown.

I would also recommend trying to read your opponents more, either through manual observation or software. That way not only will your results improve, but it will also help other players analyze your hands when posting.

Best Regards,
Collin

[Kibby]

Without a strong read of the guy raising somewhere in the vicinity of 20-25% of his hands, I'd fold.

[montagu]

Thanks very much. I now realise that I really need to improve my reading skills, this is not a strong area of mine. How would software help with this? Does it show in-game stats to show how many hands an opponent plays?

[Kibby]

Get poker tracker and PAHUD. That will allow you to see the number of times you opponent is entering the pot and how often he is raising.

[montagu]

Thanks Kibby, I might have to do that. I'm also looking forward to Collin's book, I hope this comes out soon to give me some good tips.