Second Chance: 910s on BB with 10BBs 40 left getting 6 to 1

[MUD]

Can I call? Its almost a fourth of my chip stack, but its great odds. The big stacks are playing somewhat aggressive, but this is the first smooth call in quite a while.

I think I open shove any open-ended, flush draw or top pair on the flop. Check a straight. check/fold the rest. maybe shove a few mid pair plus back door draws.

Given that is this a call? Or am I thinking about it right?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t3000 (8 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Button (t123706)
SB (t42398)
Hero (t32766)
UTG (t49369)
UTG+1 (t110820)
MP1 (t50201)
MP2 (t20187)
CO (t35903)

[Preflop: Hero is BB with :9d, :td.
[color=#666666]1 fold</font>, [color=#CC3333]UTG+1 raises to t9000</font>, [color=#666666]3 folds</font>, Button calls t9000, SB calls t7500, [color=#666666]1 fold</font>.

[hamnegger]

you can call/ then shove on any drawing or top 2 pair or trips you can maybe sloplay

[DDBeast]

you're getting ridiculous odds pf, with a great hand for the occasion, gotta call.

[grafyx]

[ QUOTE ]
you're getting ridiculous odds pf, with a great hand for the occasion, gotta call.

[/ QUOTE ]

calling &gt; shoving? You're getting called if you shove, but 2-1 is a pretty good price and tripling up is a lot of fun.

[WarDekar]

Why wouldn't you want to shove and get a couple calls and build the pot bigger? If you wait for flop people can fold and you don't make as much.

[blockafor]

[ QUOTE ]
you're getting ridiculous odds pf, with a great hand for the occasion, gotta call.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's getting good odds, but you can't call over 20% of your stack preflop with T9s. He can't push because he doesn't have any fold equity. This is a fold.

[grafyx]

[ QUOTE ]
Why wouldn't you want to shove and get a couple calls and build the pot bigger? If you wait for flop people can fold and you don't make as much.

[/ QUOTE ]

We don't have any FE on the flop since we only have like 60% of a psb or so remaining, it's highly unlikely that all 3 players fold for such a small bet. If we had closing to a psb remaining calling might be better. In this spot, I think pushing is better than calling because it is likely to end up heads up with one of the big stacks isolating and getting 2-1 pot odds with T9s is pretty good.

[grafyx]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you're getting ridiculous odds pf, with a great hand for the occasion, gotta call.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's getting good odds, but you can't call over 20% of your stack preflop with T9s. He can't push because he doesn't have any fold equity. This is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

As long as you can count on one of the big stacks to isolate our push, you don't need FE for the push to be +cEV. We just need to be better than 2.4-1 or whatever the pot odds are vs his range.

[MUD]

Does anybody know the odds of flopping top pair with 10-9? I cant find it anywhere.

So can anybody help me with some ranges.

Reads are not overly, but still aggressive big stacks(UTG+1 and button). My gut told me that Button may be floating to take a pot off the other big stack as I hadn't seen him smooth call yet in 2 hours. More interesting is that SB took 30 seconds before calling. I think he is in more of a push/fold situation than me. Do you think he could have a similar hand to me? Is anybody smooth calling anything in his spot?

I want to do an in-depth mathematical analysis of this position so I just need some possible ranges, as this was only my 4th $200 tourney and I'm not familiar with these players at all.

[MUD]

So I got some numbers:

0.84% flop a flush
1.30% flop any straight
10.94% flop a four flush
7.21% to flop clean 8-out straight draw (unpaired board, no 3 flush against)
1.85% flop clean 2 pair (no 3 flush board)
(2.02% flop any 2 pair)
1.45% flop trips or full house or 4 of a kind
15% to flop top pair.

38.5% of the time all my money is going in on the flop if I call. plus maybe 4%? for non-Ace flop with mid pair and back door draw. So total about 42%.

to be +cEV my equity needs to be:

0.58 * (-6000) - ( 0.42x)= 0
x=8300

So I need to be worth 40000 chips when my chips go in on the flop.

The pot would be 38000 if I call. If I get one caller 100% of the time when I shove then I need to be about 50%. (which I really doubt I am). Therefore I need all 3 to fold almost 25% of the time if I'm 40% on the flop when my money goes in.

Sorry if its confusing, I'm new to these calculations.

I'm doing some more math right now but its looking like, given my assumptions on continuing post flop

Fold &gt; Call


Anybody see any flaws in my assumptions?