6.50: JJ on the bubble - too weak?

[chuckpalms04]

raiser had been playing EXTREMELY tight, so i really thought i must be behind.. thoughts?


PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t200 with t25 antes (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t6795)
Button (t2225)
Hero (t2770)
BB (t1710)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="red">CO raises to t800</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="gray">Hero folds</font>, <font color="gray">BB folds</font>

[TreyWilly]

This may or may not reflect the opinion of the forum, but there's a good chance you will be the short stack in a few orbits if you continue to fold hands like this.

In my experience at this level, many short stacks hang on well past their time. Because of this, if the big stack has any skill at all, you're his bitch for the next few levels.

I shove here. Big stack is almost certainly calling, but I'm not sure why he would overbet the CO with QQ, KK or AA. If you bubble, so be it.

[BeattysLuck]

Personally, I would reraise all in unless youre positive hes only raising with QQ+ and AQ+, which is extremely tight like you said. But, in most cases youre probably going to see overcards or a lower pocket pair.

[mmorpg]

I want to see a shove here. You are way ahead of his range and you will have some FE here.

[DeuceSeven]

With no reads most times a big bet like that is a weak A, a small pp, or nothing. Even without a read, easy shove. I get this alot at the 5.50s, often times villain folds and more times then not I'm at least 70% when called.

[malnek]

if hes been real tight as you say so far chances are that he probably has a decent clue as to what hes doing and thus should not be that tight here. so shove u got FE

[Luisgallo]

instashove!!!!
there isn't any supershortie and you have got folding equity.

[IceMuncher]

I'd like to know more by what you mean by "EXTREMELY tight", but there's almost no way I could fold this unless I had a massive read on him.

You'll see an underpair or a single overcard to your pair so often that it's not even funny. At worst you're on the good end of a coinflip, and QQ+ makes a very small percentage compared to all the hands that you crush.

[EscapePlan9]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to know more by what you mean by "EXTREMELY tight", but there's almost no way I could fold this unless I had a massive read on him.

You'll see an underpair or a single overcard to your pair so often that it's not even funny. At worst you're on the good end of a coinflip, and QQ+ makes a very small percentage compared to all the hands that you crush.

[/ QUOTE ]

[chuckpalms04]

alright - extremely tight means playing maybe 12-15% of his hands, never raising, even in position, and just letting the action go on by himself. he hasn't been taking advantage of his big stack trying to put himself in position to easily win, which really made me think he must have been strong. Generally this is a push for me, as well, but against a really tight player like this, do we still push?