Is my overpair any good?

[CybrPunk]

Live charity MTT - about 60 players started with prizes awarded to all players at the FT, 3 of which are satellite seats to fairly decent live events. t7500 starting stacks assuming players took the rebuy and add-on offered. Most of the starting field is still in with maybe one or two people having been knocked out so far.

The villain in this hand is an older guy who I spent time talking with before the tournament started. He's a retiree from Arizona who used to play live spread limit games there 4-5 times a week until he moved to Florida. Prior to the hand in question I had seen him make some rather outrageous plays at the pot and then fold leaving himself nearly nothing behind in chips.

Here's the hand:

Blinds 150/300

Hero t7000
Villain t10000
Loose old guy t6500

Loose older guy who is directly to my right min-raises to 600. I've seen him do this with hands as bad as 95s and he clearly has no idea what hands are really valued at.

I look down at JJ and reraise to 2k. Villain to my immediate left calls as does the loose old guy. Pot is 6450 going to the flop.

Flop: 932r

Loose old guy checks to me, I bet 2k and villain on my left moves all in. Loose old guy to my right folds.

Hero does what?

What range of hands do you put the villain on?

[b-komplex]

Villain could have anything and you have to call here due to pot odds.

[seke2]

If Villain has made a variety of outrageous plays, I'm pretty sure he could have 9x or 88-44 here and think it's good. Not sure you can fold this.

[chrismystero]

call

[grafyx]

I don't see how you can fold on that flop with less than a psb remaining. I think you should just shove the flop the first time for 5k. I don't see the point of making a 2k bet.

[BlueEcho]

You're getting almost 4.5 to 1 on the call and your better than that against whatever reasonable range you can assign villian. Especially after your read this is an easy call.

[CybrPunk]

[ QUOTE ]
You're getting almost 4.5 to 1 on the call and your better than that against whatever reasonable range you can assign villian. Especially after your read this is an easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please describe what you would consider a reasonable range for villain after cold-calling 2k preflop and then moving over the top of me when I lead into this dry flop. Remember there's a huge difference between him leading at a flop or turn and folding to a raise (as he did in prior hands, one leaving him with under 1k in chips after which he rebought) versus making an all-in raise against a strong player who is, apparently, pot-committed.

[BlueEcho]

Hmmm....I don't put villian on AA,KK because I would expect more pre-flop action. That's not to say it isn't so. 88-QQ, A9, and 22, 33 for a set is reasonable to me. I think air is also possible so let's just have that frequency cancel out AA,KK (whether or not that percentage is accurate is arguable I know).

Pokerstove

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.108% 49.64% 01.47% 16708 495.00 { JcJd }
Hand 1: 48.892% 47.42% 01.47% 15962 495.00 { QQ-88, 33-22, A9s, K9s }

I was thinking this so let me know what you think.

[CybrPunk]

Your range seems pretty decent, rather close to the range I assigned at the time except I didn't include A9 or K9. I was pretty sure he didn't have AA/KK and he wasn't bluffing with a missed AK or a draw since there really weren't any drawing hands I could think of that would call preflop and then hit this flop.

I led for 2k into this pot because I felt that if my hand was best it would induce two folds and if I was behind one of the two would tell me by raising. With the absence of draws I didn't really have to deny drawing odds to anyone. I figured that if I tossed in my remaining 5k here I would only get called by hands I was behind.

I led for 2k, villain pushed, loose old guy folded and I thought for a really long time. The table wasn't happy with me for how long I was taking ... to finally fold.

Villain showed me 99 for a flopped top set. I really figured he either had a set or a bigger pair than me. I didn't think he would make this play with a pair of 7s or 8s.

I told him after he busted from the FT in 8th that I folded two jacks on that flop. His jaw hit the floor.

This was the key hand of the tournament for me, in my opinion.

[BlueEcho]

Then that is a smoking great laydown.

But something I'm really trying to work on is establishing a range for villian and play it accordingly. In this case he was ahead, in many similar cases he won't be and I think this is where we can profit. We are ahead of his range and getting more than 4:1 to call. Under these circumstances you can't laydown very often and profit.

This theory can sometimes be cloudy to me, maybe someone else can put it better. As I said your laydown proved to be a great one at the time but mathematically it really isn't. I'm not trying to be harsh at all just sharing what I think is right.