Turning preflop lemons into lemonade...

gharp · #1 02-15-2006, 07:27 PM

SB (9 hands at 77 VPIP, which is worthless) and MP are new to the table so no reads. BB's playing his third hand. I have a good table image, but it's possible that none of them know/care.

I think I made at least one mistake here -- curious to see what other people think though...

Ultimate Bet 3/6 Hold'em (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. MP posts a blind of $3.
1 fold, MP (poster) checks, Hero raises, SB calls, 1 fold, MP calls.

Flop: (7 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, MP folds, Hero raises, SB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

River: (7.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB

GetThere1Time · #2 02-15-2006, 07:31 PM

looks like a bet needs to go in on the turn or the river. I vote the turn just in case he's bein silly with [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s, plus your hand's easily counterfittable

tehox · #3 02-15-2006, 07:31 PM

I would fold preflop. I just don't think this is going to be profitable.

As played I would just peel the flop and raise the turn.

chief444 · #4 02-15-2006, 07:33 PM

Just calling the turn seems really bad to me.

milesdyson · #5 02-15-2006, 07:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
9 hands at 77 VPIP, which is worthless

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i dont think this is worthless. it is likely that his VPIP is retardedly high and that he won't fold postflop. he's exactly the person you don't want in the blinds if you're going to play a hand that will rely heavily on postflop fold equity.

i would fold preflop in a heartbeat.

if i decided to raise preflop, i would call the flop.

if i decided to raise the flop, i would raise the turn.

Leader · #6 02-15-2006, 08:13 PM

pf is awful

Are we raising the flop for a free card? I would just call and fold UI, and you need to raise the turn.

gharp · #7 02-15-2006, 08:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
9 hands at 77 VPIP, which is worthless

[/ QUOTE ]
i dont think this is worthless. it is likely that his VPIP is retardedly high and that he won't fold postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I think you're on to something here. I routinely ignore VPIP/PFR stats that have less than about 20 hands -- but I could've noticed that this guy (already played 7/9) was going to be around 50 VPIP even at 20 hands.

He ended up being 48/0/1.4 after 30 hands, FWIW.

gharp · #8 02-16-2006, 01:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
pf is awful

[/ QUOTE ]
"awful" because of SB's stats (and what miles said) or "awful" because I have 54o?

Pog0 · #9 02-16-2006, 01:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
pf is awful

[/ QUOTE ]
"awful" because of SB's stats (and what miles said) or "awful" because I have 54o?

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I think it's awful because you have 54o and MP is unknown. In about 60k hands of 6max, I've picked up a pot preflop with a poster exactly once. You're in trouble if he's typical for the game, and that's what you're assuming since you have no reeds, right?

Leader · #10 02-16-2006, 01:50 AM

Awful because it's 54o, which is a pretty terrible hand. Math isn't everything in pf play, but here I think it's illustrative. Here are the hands that have more equity then 54o (the top 79% of hands): 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,92s+,82s+,73s+,62s+,5 2s+,43s,A2o+,K2o+,Q2o+,J3o+,T5o+,95o+,85o+,75o+,65 o