Boxing handicappers, whatcha think about.....

JPT III · #1 04-12-2007, 11:20 PM

the over in the upcoming De La Hoya fight? I love it at the currently WA -260 (over 11.5 rounds). I'm no handicapper, and certainly not a boxing expert, but I think this has tremendous value. Mayweather is the best in the world, and all he does is play defense. He's actually quite boring for this reason. I can't imagine De La Hoya stopping Mayweather, and I can't imagine Mayweather stopping De La Hoya. I say this goes the distance 9 times out of 10.

Anyone agree? Disagree?

wpr101 · #2 04-13-2007, 08:20 AM

Two professional boxers going at it for 12 rounds and you don't think there is a good chance there will be a KO?

JPT III · #3 04-13-2007, 09:46 AM

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Two professional boxers going at it for 12 rounds and you don't think there is a good chance there will be a KO?

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I absolutely do not. I think there is a very small chance. So does the linemaker, but I think there is even less of a chance than the linemaker does.

Apparently no one else really cares though, judging by the lack of response here. Oh, well. I'll bump this to make myself feel better if it turns out a good bet; and I'll bump this to remind people not to listen to me if it turns out a bad bet.

igetbadbeat · #4 04-13-2007, 09:47 AM

This fight obviously goes to a decision the majority of the time. The question is...how often? Is it much greater than 3/4X?

JPT III · #5 04-13-2007, 09:54 AM

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This fight obviously goes to a decision the majority of the time. The question is...how often? Is it much greater than 3/4X?

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Correct. And to answer your question, I say "yes." And by the way, even if it goes to a decision 3 times out of 4, there is value on the over now priced at -260.

ThaHero · #6 04-14-2007, 08:19 PM

Mayweather has too good defense. He's been down once I believe in his career. Obviously never knocked out(undefeated). So even though he is higher than his normal weight, I doubt he gets knocked down as he is too quick and his defense is too good.

I also don't think Floyd has the power to knock down Oscar. He's moved up in weight enough that his power isn't really that devastating. Oscar also has a pretty good chin and good defense too, thanks to training from Floyd's dad. I think Oscar knocking Floyd out would happen before Floyd knocking out Oscar. Best Floyd could hope for is a stoppage from some barrage of punches if he hurts Oscar. Neither fighter really cuts either, so a stoppage on a cut would be unlikely.

Honestly, I like the over at anything below -300, and may even take it there. I'm no math guy though. I wonder if Tuds is around still? This fight is edging closer and I've been thinking about it a lot lately, and can't wait for the HBO 24/7 show tomorrow.

igetbadbeat · #7 04-14-2007, 08:27 PM

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Mayweather has too good defense. He's been down once I believe in his career. Obviously never knocked out(undefeated). So even though he is higher than his normal weight, I doubt he gets knocked down as he is too quick and his defense is too good.

I also don't think Floyd has the power to knock down Oscar. He's moved up in weight enough that his power isn't really that devastating. Oscar also has a pretty good chin and good defense too, thanks to training from Floyd's dad. I think Oscar knocking Floyd out would happen before Floyd knocking out Oscar. Best Floyd could hope for is a stoppage from some barrage of punches if he hurts Oscar. Neither fighter really cuts either, so a stoppage on a cut would be unlikely.

Honestly, I like the over at anything below -300, and may even take it there. I'm no math guy though. I wonder if Tuds is around still? This fight is edging closer and I've been thinking about it a lot lately, and can't wait for the HBO 24/7 show tomorrow.

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Yep, but ask yourself how confident you would feel in middling Oscar by KO and Floyd by decision. Once I asked myself that question, I decided that -260 on the over is not some SICK value, though I could see a 2-3u play on it.

ThaHero · #8 04-14-2007, 09:40 PM

Oh, I wasn't trying to say there was sick value. Like I said, I'm not a math guy. Would I bet it though? Yes.

Phanekim · #9 04-14-2007, 10:18 PM

there is no value in this bet. If forced to, i'd take over though at -260. But I generally don't make a bet unless I feel like i have a huge advantage.

wpr101 · #10 04-15-2007, 10:18 AM

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Two professional boxers going at it for 12 rounds and you don't think there is a good chance there will be a KO?

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I absolutely do not. I think there is a very small chance. So does the linemaker, but I think there is even less of a chance than the linemaker does.

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I guess I don't watch enough boxing. Most of the fights I watch are MMA which I also train. It sounds like the frequency of KOs in boxing is a lot lower than I thought. Sorry, I can't really offer any insight into this fight.