General Question. Calling just for low.

[Shabamabam]

Besides meta-game reasons and what not... When is it profitable to call JUST for LOW. Knowing that if you hit your low you will get half and only half?

edit; limit o8.

[bbartlog]

Well... if you *know* for certain that you're only going to get half, it just comes down to math surely? Figure out how much is in the pot, figure out what your odds of making the low are (or of keeping it, if you already have the nut low), estimate how much more you'll have to put in the pot to collect your half, and how much that implies other players will be putting in...

[Cooker]

This depends on a lot on the opponents. If the pot is contested multiway a naked low draw can be very profitable. Especially if you can read hands well later on. I have often been able to trap the flopped nuts between me with a nut low and a guy who turned new nuts for high and come out with some nice profit getting in caps on both the big streets. Here you are going to need one pretty bad opponent (the guy who flops a big hand and can never fold when it is clearly beat).

I have found situations where the flop makes a strait possible with a flush draw and top set, the flopped strait, and flush draw battle over the high half while I am all alone going for the other half. This situation can also be hugely profitable.

In a HU pot a naked low can be used as a very affective semibluff. If the high nuts change or the board becomes scary to a hand like 2 pair, then very often you will be able to bully your way into the whole pot and at worst you are probably getting half your money back (if he actually quarters you).

I usually won't play it if I have good reason to suspect that my opponent will not fold later streets, I will not be able to scoop no matter what cards come, and the pot is small.

[Shabamabam]

Does anyone actually know the math?

[Twistofsin]

(1 + 1) * .5 = 1

(1 + 1 + 1) * .5 = 1.5

That help?

[TxRedMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Besides meta-game reasons and what not... When is it profitable to call JUST for LOW. Knowing that if you hit your low you will get half and only half?

edit; limit o8.

[/ QUOTE ]

almost always.

be more detail specific and i'll give you some math.

[SweetLuckyMe]

Depends on what's in the pot, what you may have for backdoor high redraws and whether you have any counterfeit protection.

Calling a flop bet with 23JQ on a board of AA8 with no reasonably backdoor high draws in a 3person unraised pot isn't a profitable play.

[ManInArena]

[ QUOTE ]
Depends on what's in the pot, what you may have for backdoor high redraws and whether you have any counterfeit protection.

Calling a flop bet with 23JQ on a board of AA8 with no reasonably backdoor high draws in a 3person unraised pot isn't a profitable play.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, but raising is.

[Buzz]

Shabamabam - The thing is, if you hit your low, you won’t, on the average, get half. Sometimes you’ll get a quarter and sometimes you’ll get a sixth - and about once every thousand times in a full game, you’ll get an eighth. In a nine handed game, I think you average 0.3991 for ace-deuce low. In a ten handed game, I think you average 0.3875 for low.

<ul type="square">scratch for the nine player game:
.6107P/2+.3468P/4+.0417P/6+.0008P/8
.3054+.0867+.0069+.0001 = .3991

bottom line for the ten player game:
.2844+.0942+.0088+.0001 = .3875[/list]But though you expect you’ll get quartered or sixthed (or occasionally eighthed) for low, you don’t know if the current hand is the time you’ll get fractionated or not.

You might pick up some clues from the betting, but poker by nature is deceptive. Your opponents will do their best to deceive you. Even those who seem very straightforward will sometimes do something out of the ordinary to mislead you.

Thus it is hard to know for certain when someone is in on the action and when low is possible, whether that particular opponent is playing for high, low, or both.

When playing in a game, and when I have the nut low, I figure I’ll win a quarter of the pot about two times out of five and have sole possession of the low (win half the pot for low) about three times out of five. I feel stoic about getting fractionated - it goes with the territory.

When playing in a full game, and when I have the 2nd nut low, I figure I’ll run up against the nut low about half the time. And then it’s a matter of estimating if this is that half or not. Sometimes I’ll make a wise choice and other times I am forced to just gamble. (I’m not big on just gambling, but neither am I big on getting bullied).

[ QUOTE ]
edit; limit o8.

[/ QUOTE ]There was a recent post where somebody asked about playing a low hand in a pot limit game. As I recall, the bet was $2.25 and there were two players who had already checked yet to act, either of whom could raise thirteen bucks or not... something like that. I thought I’d call in a limit game. But in that pot-limit situation I wouldn’t have position. I thought I’d call the bet if I was closing out the action by calling. Otherwise, especially with the board stipulated in the post, I’d be very wary of a check raise behind me - and then possibly a re-raise from the Button. Continuing could quickly get very expensive and you don’t want to be playing for a quarter of the pot against two opponents.

At any rate, I thought position would be very important in that pot-limit game situation, and Hero simply did not have good enough position to have gotten into the mess. However, position wouldn’t be anywhere near as important in a limit game. [ QUOTE ]
When is it profitable to call JUST for LOW. Knowing that if you hit your low you will get half and only half?

[/ QUOTE ]It’s variable, depending on what the bet will cost, the possibility of a raise, the number of opponents who will also be contributing and competing, who they are, and the amount that will be in the pot at the showdown.

To sort of answer your question, I need to rephrase it. You seem to be asking about a low draw, rather than a made low. There are different cases, depending on how many outs you have for low.<ul type="square">For example, you could have
• A234 with a board of 789T, or
• A23K with a board of 789T, or
• A2KK with a board of 789T.

With the A234, you’d have 12+8 = 20 outs for the nut low.
20/44, almost half, is your probability of making the nut low. Then figure you’ll get fractionated enough such that you’ll only average about 2/5 of the pot when you do win.

24/44 lose 1
20/44*2/5 win P/4
20/44*3/5 win P/2

.04545P+0.1364P = 0.5454
P = 3.006
That’s admittedly very crude and not well explained. I’ll do better for the next one (A23K, see below).

With the A23K, you’d have 9+12 = 21 outs for the nut low. (Isn’t that interesting? When the board is 789T, you actually have a slightly better draw for low with A23K than with A234!)
21/44, almost half, is your probability of making the nut low. I don't think that changes how much needs to be in the pot. But I'll figure it more closely this time (see below).

Starting with nine opponents, and assuming at least four have seen the flop, and also assuming nobody who was dealt A2XY would fold before the flop,

• 23/44, miss low, lose 1 bet
  21/44*0.6107, make only low, win P/2
  21/44*0.3468, make low, get quartered, win P/4
  21/44*0.0471, make low, get sixthed, win P/6
  21/44*0.0008, make low, get eighthed, win P/8
  
  -23/44 +21/44*0.6107*P/2 + 21/44*0.3468*P/4 + 21/44*0.0471*P/6 + 21/44*0.0008*P/8 = 0
  
  Now we solve for P.
  -0.5225+0.1457P + 0.0414P + 0.0037P + not significant = 0
  0.1908P = 0.5225
  P = 2.74

Thus if the betting ended right here, the pot size, exclusive of the bet provided by Hero, would have to be about three times the size of the bet for the call to be profitable. But the betting does not end here. There’s still one betting round to go. And we don’t know what will happen on the river. Could be a raising war will erupt. Could be there will be a single bet and everyone else will fold. Could be there will be a single bet and multiple callers. Could be something else.

Based (1) on his knowledge of his opponents, (2) on how many opponents called a bet on the first betting round, (3) on the particular cards on the flop, (4) on how many opponents called a bet on the second betting round and (5) who they are, Hero can make a guesstimate on his chances of getting quartered or sixthed for low if low does become enabled on the river.

Based on the number of opponents who would continue to a bet on the fourth betting round, Hero could get a better read on his chances of getting quartered or sixthed - but by then it would be too late to make a decision on the third betting round.

So we guess. We hopefully try to make the guess as educated as possible, but on the third betting round it’s still a guess. We’re trying to figure out what cards our opponents hold and meanwhile, they would like to mislead us, without being obvious enough to give a tell. (Or sometimes they’ll be jabbering or faking in such a way that it’s difficult or impossible to interpret the tell with any degree of assurance).

At any rate, if I’m holding A23X, drawing for the nut low and have no realistic chance to win high, I think I can call a bet on the third betting round that is not more than one half the size the pot was before the bet was made.

With the A2KK, you’d have 16 outs for the nut low.
16/44, a bit more than 1/3, is your probability of making the nut low.

Back to very crudely,
28/44 lose 1
16/44*2/5 win P/4
16/44*3/5 win P/2

.0364P+0.1091P = 0.6364
P = 4.37

If you figure you’ll get fractionated enough such that you’ll only average 2/5 of the pot when you do win, and if nobody will be raising behind you, then I think the amount in the pot has to be roughly five times what the bet on the third betting round will cost you.... something like that. That’s admittedly very crude.

Also, that’s reasoning for a limit game.

In a pot limit game, where someone could bet the whole pot on the next betting round, or worse, where someone behind you could raise the whole pot on the current betting round and then bet the amount in that increased pot on the river, I think it would be very risky (too risky for me) to draw for low with no chance to win high.

Buzz

[Heron]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Depends on what's in the pot, what you may have for backdoor high redraws and whether you have any counterfeit protection.

Calling a flop bet with 23JQ on a board of AA8 with no reasonably backdoor high draws in a 3person unraised pot isn't a profitable play.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, but raising is.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think so?

Since we're playing for the low only, it seems to me that raising is even worse than calling because it's unlikely that we're up against another 23. Hence it's not in our interest to knock someone out.