WSOP qualifier - bubble situation

[Luisgallo]

Final table 33rebuy WSOP qualifier, 5 players left.
No hand history sorry.

1st wins WSOP package, 2nd 65$ 3rd and 4th 330$.

I sharkscoped them and only 1 player is a winning SNGer.
Unfortunately I really run bad in cards, i pushed twice when button to win blinds.

Blinds 3000 -6000 antes 300.

UTG 215k in chips
UTG+1 110k in chips
button 89k in chips
Hero 47k in chips
BB 135k in chips

Folded to Hero

Hero has 9 10o

BB has not experience in SNG.

Is this an easy push right?

[jgunnip]

yes, but you need to have a pretty good idea of what his calling range is by this point of the FT. Sharkscope isn't going to tell you much since the payout is v different from a sng.

[ManChild]

this is an easy push

also, i think this is the first tourny where 2nd place gets less money than 3rd and 4th place [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Hollandicus]

So many factors to consider, since you allude to SNGs I guess you are asking whether this is +ev from an ICM standpoint.

My thought is that with such a flat paypout structure then chip ev = $ev to all intents so the ICM does not really come into it... then again with is 10k in the pot to be won so you do not have time to wait around.

Really need a calling range for the villan here, then it is just a case of comparing his range to your chances of winning a showdown... if he calls with a8+ 55+ and KQs for example (10%) then you pick up the 10K 90% of the time and win a showdown 30%ish - so out of 100 tries

90 times you win 10k = +900k
3 times you win 56k = +168k
7 times you lose 44k = - 308k

Divide by 100 and we have a positive expectation of just over 10k per try...

Back of an envelope maths here so feel free to flame me!

Cheers, Mark

[Luisgallo]

typo...650$...

[ManChild]

[censored] that
seriously, i think i shove any 2 here unless i now hes calling loose