mid set vs a fish 50NL

[the machine]

villain is 71/0/.23 only 90 hands though. FWIW ive never seen him show any agression like this.

in the process of 4 tabling, and considering checking this flop, due to villains loose super passive style i timed down alot before betting the flop. this could have swayed him into thinking i may be bluffing the flop.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.25/$0.50 Blinds
4 Players
LegoPoker HH Converter

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
SB: $35.90
BB: $47.20
UTG: $49.35
<font color="black">Hero (BTN): $53.05</font>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($0.75, 4 Players)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $2, SB calls $1.75, BB folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($5.25, 2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3, SB calls $3

<font color="black">Turn:</font> T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($11.25, 2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $7, SB calls $7

<font color="black">River:</font> 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($25.25, 2 Players)
SB insta-snap-bets all-in for $23.90, Hero ?????

[MusashiStyle]

i feel like your only beating a4, but i make a crying call probably.

[badmeaningbad]

even w/ those numbers over 90 hands I have found villains w/ similar stats to get spastic on occasion with random over-aggression.

I think we see two pair/lower set here often enough to make the call.

[crushednuts]

it sucks but he could have a set as well.. I think you can't fold. I would pot it on the turn after he calls as he probably has something. I hope it wasn't KQ... I think you will call here and see 22, 44, TT etc. Alot. if he back doored a flush or an inside str8 then whatever. Two pair is much more likely

[kolotoure]

I call but I hate it

[the machine]

teh consensus is a call. i folded. is folding a big leak here, meh im not sure. at teh time i decided either way long run was probably close to neutral EV but leaning a little more to the negative side so i folded. i felt from what i had seen so far that a super passive player like this now shoving 50BB's is one of 2 things a bluff or the nuts. i dont even think hes open shoving a rivered set here.

[MusashiStyle]

foldings not really bad, it's just that we believe he is bluffing (or thinks his 2 pr is good) a fair amount also taking account the fact that his stack size is just enough to make a decent bet which would motivate him to bluff.

[badmeaningbad]

[ QUOTE ]
teh consensus is a call. i folded. is folding a big leak here, meh im not sure. at teh time i decided either way long run was probably close to neutral EV but leaning a little more to the negative side so i folded. i felt from what i had seen so far that a super passive player like this now shoving 50BB's is one of 2 things a bluff or the nuts. i dont even think hes open shoving a rivered set here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you are losing too much by folding here. If it is +EV it's very close to neutral. I was hoping you looked him up though, I was curious about what he had... [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[ajml]

You arent losing much folding here. I also wouldnt worry about this being a big leak. This situation against this type of player will come up so infrequently its impossible for it to factor largely into your overall results.

[Sweir]

tbh I think that unless villian is a complete CS that likes to float you OOP a lot you are only losing to AA, KQ is maybe possible. Atfirst I was thinking its Jcxc but then you have the Jc, lol. Easy call by the looks of things.