On the Bubble in a MTT Tournament.. Call nearly all my stack w 7h 3h?

[danielkomen]

Ok the scenario is below. MTT satellite to the Monday 1k tourney. 6 left 5 get seats. 6th gets the $100 buy in back.

The CO is the big stack and has started pushing all in virtually every hand since getting so big. This is the only hand the SB will start off smaller than the hero in the BB. The hero in the BB has like 40% of his stack in the pot in the BB to start. With a call the SB has to beat both the hero and the CO to get the seat. 7 3 suited however is a pretty crappy hand and you have to figure the SB had a pretty good hand to voluntarily enter the pot. What does the ICM say?


Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t1000/t2000
(Ante: t250)
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t13984
UTG+1: t7858
CO: t39203
Button: t10335
SB: t4455
Hero: t5165

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises all-in t38953</font>, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">SB calls all-in t3205</font>, Hero ?????.

without calculating, this looks like a pretty clear call

[MJBuddy]

Hero needs to tighten up extremely because donking out here is absurd.

[Cornell Fiji]

I haven't done an ICM calculation but I am pretty sure that this is a fold on a satellite bubble.

I would imagine that with CO pushing every hand, and with 2 other short stacks at the table, that SB is calling pretty tight in this spot.

I am pretty sure that A8 is also -$EV here and I would not be terribly surprised if AJ/88 were also -$EV

[IvanXDurham]

"how about no, Scott."

[woodguy]

I think the SB is killing your equity here, but its close.

You need about 27% ish as you are getting a little better than 3.7-1

If you and the SB both bust you get the seat, and no one else is close to busting just yet. Given that, I think its a call.

Regards,
Woodguy

daniel, i think you'd be getting better responses in the STT forum. this is more of a SNG question and most people who arent familiar wont be much help

for those advocating a fold..the reason it's a call is because it's basically insurance. we call and it's 2 hands vs. one rather than 1 on 1. what we have here doesnt really matter.

if we folded and SB were to win..we're the new shortstack in the SB with t1500 remaining next hand, and we're the ones who are forced to put all our chips in now..because any of the other shorty's at the table (if they have common sense) will not be putting their chips in the middle.

so if you were to pick between AI now 4 cards vs. 2 or forced AI the next hand vs. X amount of players, calling AI here is golden

EDIT: and the worst case scenario is: SB winning the main pot &gt; CO winning sidepot &gt; Hero OUT. everything else and we win the seat (Hero&gt;SB&gt;CO / Hero&gt;CO&gt;SB / CO&gt;Hero&gt;SB / CO&gt;SB&gt;Hero). and we're still alive with about t1400 if SB&gt;Hero&gt;CO

[Cornell Fiji]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the SB is killing your equity here, but its close.

You need about 27% ish as you are getting a little better than 3.7-1

If you and the SB both bust you get the seat, and no one else is close to busting just yet. Given that, I think its a call.

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]


Woodguy,
This is a satellite bubble. cEV is irrelevant.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]

Woodguy,
This is a satellite bubble. cEV is irrelevant.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you call and both you and SB lose, you get the seat. I think that makes your CEV relevent.

You have the times you both lose - you get seat.
You have the times SB wins - you lose seat
You have the times you win - you get seat.

To figure out if you call you need to have a handle on how often you win the seat by winning with your hand, so CEV plays a part.

I don't want to do the math, but we need to figure out your Seat EV of folding vs. your Seat EV of calling. To get that you need to figure your CEV.

I think.

Regards,
Woodguy

[IceMuncher]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Woodguy,
This is a satellite bubble. cEV is irrelevant.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you call and both you and SB lose, you get the seat. I think that makes your CEV relevent.

You have the times you both lose - you get seat.
You have the times SB wins - you lose seat
You have the times you win - you get seat.

To figure out if you call you need to have a handle on how often you win the seat by winning with your hand, so CEV plays a part.

I don't want to do the math, but we need to figure out your Seat EV of folding vs. your Seat EV of calling. To get that you need to figure your CEV.

I think.

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

This is completely different than your previous post, where you calculated pot odds.