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#1
04-06-2007, 02:40 PM
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$225: I\'ve got A2o, and he\'s got 150k in Scope winnings. Call?
Allright, so I've built my roll up nicely over the last few years, and I now take very periodic shots at $100/$200 level. (So far, I've taken 4, and cashed in 3. Sustainable, right?)
Here's a hand that I'm wondering about, and this has to do a lot more with multi-level thinking (or possibly me overthinking). Hero has played well so far and has the CL after having 2 players try to resteal from him unsuccessfully. Pretty standard TAG image so far. UTG+1 is bigjoe2003/Joey Michael, one of the featured pros from sngicons.com, obv huge lifetime winner on Scope, and probably the best player on this table. He's also short-stacked and he's played fairly tight so far. But now the blinds are pretty high and about to move up to 100/200, so I know he's thinking he needs to push either this hand or the next one if he's going to have any FE at the next level after he gets through the blinds. BB has seemed pretty bad so far, I don't think he's capable of a lot of tricky stuff. Can I actually call or isolate here, or is it just too much a gamble, especially given BB's stack size and how much I'd potentially be risking if I did isolate, and how exploitable I would be to a resteal if my read is off and BB isn't a tard? PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t150 (6 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com UTG (t1400) UTG+1 (t910) CO (t2725) Button (t1125) Hero (t4160) BB (t3180) Preflop: Hero is in SB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="red">UTG+1 raises to t910 (All-in)</font>, <font color="gray">2 folds</font>, Hero ??? 
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#2
04-06-2007, 02:43 PM
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Re: $225: I\'ve got A2o, and he\'s got 150k in Scope winnings. Call?
Pass on this. A2 is the worst hand joey should be pushing here. I don't think he even pushes that light.
Edit: Maybe he pushes A2 but it doesn't seem great.
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#5
04-06-2007, 02:49 PM
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Re: $225: I\'ve got A2o, and he\'s got 150k in Scope winnings. Call?
[ QUOTE ]
Pass on this. A2 is the worst hand joey should be pushing here. I don't think he even pushes that light. Edit: Maybe he pushes A2 but it doesn't seem great. [/ QUOTE ] I thought he was pushing a lot of hands that were worse than Ax in this spot, which is why I thought about calling. If I didn't think he was pushing small suited connectors and possibly even pushing any 2, I wouldn't have considered it. I'm more trying to put myself in his shoes here. He's got ~900 left, he'll be down to ~675 if he doesn't do something, and we're about 3 hands away from the blinds being 100/200 and him losing any chance to get other people to fold preflop. Against an unknown, I'd turbomuck this hand. Against a solid pro, who I know is thinking about these things, I think there's a decision worth considering, at least.
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#6
04-06-2007, 02:57 PM
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Re: $225: I\'ve got A2o, and he\'s got 150k in Scope winnings. Call?
Even if he's pushing 100% your edge isn't really that big especially with a bigger stack behind you. Just fold and wait for a better spot to look him up.
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#7
04-06-2007, 04:26 PM
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Re: $225: I\'ve got A2o, and he\'s got 150k in Scope winnings. Call?
seems like an easy fold. and also consider taking shots at higher stakes games without bigjoe at the table
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#8
04-06-2007, 04:32 PM
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Re: $225: I\'ve got A2o, and he\'s got 150k in Scope winnings. Call?
[ QUOTE ]
seems like an easy fold. and also consider taking shots at higher stakes games without bigjoe at the table [/ QUOTE ] This is a very good suggestion! And in actuality, I reconstructed this hand a good bit different than it actually happened. Joe did push, and I did have A2o, and our stacks were the same. I was debating whether or not I could call him when CO pushed and then BB quickly pushed after him, and I obviously folded at that point. But when I read over the HH the next day, I was still debating whether or not I could have called him if it was folded to me. bigjoe ended up having some a middle suited gapper (T8s I think it was), which didn't really surprise me much, and was part of what let me to dwelling on the ranges and thought process involved here.
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#9
04-06-2007, 04:33 PM
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Re: $225: I\'ve got A2o, and he\'s got 150k in Scope winnings. Call?
[ QUOTE ]
seems like an easy fold. and also consider taking shots at higher stakes games without bigjoe at the table [/ QUOTE ] It's prolly hard to find one running without Joe.
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#10
04-06-2007, 04:44 PM
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Re: $225: I\'ve got A2o, and he\'s got 150k in Scope winnings. Call?
fold.. You're ahead of the pack, no need to risk like a 1/4 of your stack at best to show someone up, and he's not pushing close to 100% imo, though I've never seen him play.. besides that, what are you hoping to see? All pairs are dominating you, all other hands are coinflips.
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