Analysis of LLs

[mynamewastaken]

Lots of LLs have a ton of value, because a lot of times a finish comes down to a coinflip. Gina and Haley this week was a perfect example, where I had Haley as a LL simply because she was a dog and I didn't see any difference between the two (this has since changed, as I now think Haley's star is on the rise, but the important thing is the value I got at +140 on avg.)

Current WSEX LLs:

Chris -270 LL Haley +200
Chris is a fav to outlast Haley, but I don't think he's even close to a 3-1 fav. He's already been in the bottom 2 and Haley is improving/getting hotter every week. She definitely has a place in this show now, at least for a while until the Divas battle it out. Chris's performance was overly pimped by the judges (this is pretty well unanimous on every forum I've checked) and I personally found it forgettable. Tons of juice here but the value is still in Haley.

Phil +210 LL Sanjaya -290
Sanjaya could go at any moment, as his act has grown stale and this week didn't hold a candle to Ponyhawk week or "You Really Got Me" week. Somebody on DI is voting for Phil and getting a ton of busy signals, fwiw. Phil was in the bottom 3 this week but I can't see him as being anything worse than a coinflip against Sanjaya. I'm backing crazy suicide cult member who hates his baby.

Blake +100 LL Jordin -130
No way is Jordin a favorite here. I see Blake as the current most-likely candidate to finish 2nd, so unless Sparks is winning this thing she is unlikely to outlast Blake in my view. I expect both of these kids to go deep into the competition, so a bet on Blake here is a long-term proposition. Because of the price, it is unlikely to present many impressive arbitrage opportunities down the stretch so I'm not thrilled by this bet, but would still gladly take Blake particularly if his price improves somewhat.

Melinda -520 LL Lakisha +340
Wow talk about juice! They REALLY don't want you taking Melinda, and rightly so as Lakisha's days are surely numbered. This bet is losing it's value in a hurry but I wouldn't take Lakisha at +1000.

Super Ultra Bonus Pinny Value Bet:
Sanjaya Eliminated April 11th +614
The producers want him gone. America is tired of his antics. He cut his hair. His 15 minutes are up. Yeah, he has the momentum to carry him another week or two and it might be Phil/Haley as expected but the fact that he has roughly the same posted odds as Lakisha despite buying for 30% less than her at WSEX tells me this line is way off.

[smbruin22]

good analysis, i think i agree with every pick and every comment except one... i think sanjaya is picking up momentum or at least maintaining it. and i don't think america is sick of his act. 5 weeks ago, yes. but i think he's had an amazing rejuventation, even with non-VFTW voters. having said that, the price on sanjaya leaving is probably o.k..

i like phil or a big surprise to go this week... NOT hayley or sanjaya.

[thing85]

Great analysis, myname. Unfortunately, I'm on a lot of opposite sides from you, but this probably due to a difference in our estimation of the line value.

First, I'm on Chris at -270. I don't actually like these odds so much, but I feel like Haley is a near lock to go either this week or next. In the T12, she was supposedly in the B3 (subject to debate as she wasn't shown to be in the B3 - although Sanjaya was, and this was at the peak of his craziness.). T11 showed only the B2, however other sources (questionable, at best) showed that Haley was likely among the B3. In the T10, she was B3, and surprise, she was still B3 in the T9.

I think she has improved from what we saw earlier in the competition (I think this is most likely due to her becoming more comfortable with the stage and audience). However, she and Phil are the only contestants to have made several B3 appearances. It seems like the "B3 mobilizing voters" effect hasn't worked for Haley, as she was B3 the past 2 weeks. I don't know if she's going to go this coming week, but I have to believe it's this week or next for her.

Chris on the other hand seems to be gaining popularity, more specifically, gaining ground on Blake. His days may be numbered, but I think he easily outlasts Haley and Phil, and dare I say, Lakisha? You're right in that he might not be a 3-1 fav., but I think 2.7-1 is close. Honestly, I'd advise most people to just stay away from this bet altogether, but I'm on it anyway.

Phil is in the same boat as Haley. He's gone either this week or next, most likely. With this week being latin-themed, Phil is set up for a complete and utterly disgusting bomb. I don't think Sanjaya fans are backing down quite yet. With that said, I don't like Sanjaya at -290 (and Phil *might* be a good bet at +210), but I jumped on Sanjaya at -140 and again at -260, both of which I like.

I'm with you 100% on the Blake/Jordin bet. I actually see them closer to a coin flip, but with Blake as a slight favorite. +100 for Blake is probably an 0EV proposition, but if it gets at all better (+110 maybe) I'd be all over it. FWIW, I'm on Blake LL at +115.

The Melinda/Lakisha bet is obvious, and if I had money to spare on WSEX, I'd put it all down here.

[4Tay]

[ QUOTE ]
He cut his hair.

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WTF?!? Nooooo!!!!!!