go for 2?

[bigsooner]

Team A is down by 14 with 1:00 in the 4th quarter. Assume a 50% of 2 point conversion and 100% chance of 1 point conversion, also 50% chance of winning in overtime
Team A scores a touchdown on the next play. The whole thing only matters if they get another touchdwon so the odds of that dont matter if they go for 1 both times they have a 50% of winning. (1*1*.5) If they go for two the chances of winning are, in regulation (.5*1) + chance of winning in overtime {.5(.5*.5)} =62.5% I think this would apply with more time left, but not as purley, however i dont ever know of it being used.

[Scott_Baio]

I don't know anything about football, but I have a strong feeling the odds of scoring a 2-point conversion are well below 50%

[Quicksilvre]

Yeah, I think it's more like 35% or 40%.

If a team did have a 50% chance of getting two, then I'd still go for the one-point conversion. Less varience.

[bigsooner]

Even if its 40% you still have a 52% chance of winning the game vs 50% by just going to overtime, by going fo two on the first touchdown{ make it =(.40*1)=.40}+ { miss fist make second and win ovetime (.60)*(.40*.5)=.12} [.4+.12=.52>.5]

[splittter]

This article covers the point you're making towards the end ... turns out you need better than a 38.2% chance of making the 2 point conversion to make going for it after the first touchdown correct. The data they're working with (for '98 and '99 seasons) suggests the success rate in the NFL is around 39-40%.

It's a pretty interesting article all round covering the maths of going for a 2 point conversion.

http://www.amstat.org/publications/c...sackrowitz.pdf