NL 50 | Lost my map to valuetown

[Xanta]

Villain has been playing 18/10 for around 250 hands. He plays fairly well, don't have any notes on him that are relevant to the hand in question. I'll post my thoughts on the hand after a while.

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
5 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>, 2 folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($4.5, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $3</font>, SB calls.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($10.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $6.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $20</font>

[prodonkey]

hmm.. looks ok to me.. if he's very agressive I may just call turn to make sure I get him all in on river... depending on stack sizes also.. which aren't there hehe.

[Nthnuts]

How much does villain have behind? Assuming ~100BB this looks pretty standard.

[SirFelixCat]

W/o stack sizes, it makes it hard to determine which is the best line, either calling and making sure the rest goes in on the river or whether to raise as you did.

[Kasane]

I'd bet a bit more on the flop, unless your normal cbet is on the medium side. Board texture is such that you'll get a lot of calls from "overpairs" to that flop. Even Ax is going to think they might have you, and if not right there, as many as 10 outs.

You didn't give stack sizes, and that's critical for knowing how far value town is ...

[Xanta]

God damn it, I always forget that the converter doesn't give stack sizes

100bb effective.

He's not been overly aggressive or overly passive

[SCBielski]

Villain is showing aggression in an akward spot, so I'd probably be inclined to just call the turn and let him hang himself on the river. Assuming you call the turn, I believe that if villain bets again, he would likely fire a bet ~$15 into a $23, leaving him with about $25 behind and perfectly set up for a shove.

[Xanta]

Alright, I'm pretty convinced I made a mistake by raising in this hand. I'll try to explain why.

After the flop, a 18/10 villain probably has a range somewhere along the lines of [22-JJ, AK-AJ] (we don't know how he plays his sets), with a lot more emphasis on the pocked pairs than the overcards. My range is pretty similar, only I could have any pocket pair here. I'm really not cbetting much else except 56.

When he donks 2/3 pot on a high turn card like that, it narrows his range somewhat. I think he now can have [77-JJ, AQ] This is a weird line for sets and I think he gives up most of the time with lower than 77. AQ he might check/raise, he might bet. IMO his donkbet can kind of be interpreted as an 'information bet,' trying to find out where he stands instead of calling down on all 3 streets.

By raising the turn, I think that I fold out all of his range but AQ, which sucks obv. By calling and firing out 1/2 pot on a safe river, I think I can get a lot of his middle pocket pairs to call and thus valuetown him.

Thoughts?

[SirFelixCat]

Xanta, I think your analysis is spot on. I agree that with the stacks, I'd either raise him on the river or take him to valuebetopolis, if he checks behind.

I assume he mucked to your raise, eh?

[Xanta]

LDO