Corrales vs Clotty - Sat night

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Its probably best that I admit i am a boxing newbie, I don't know much about the scoring system, betting on the sport, or the athletes themselves - except from Diego Corrales - but thats only because he lives in my building and we have become friendly.

As you may know, he is fighting his first welterweight bout on Saturday on Showtime - two classes above his former class. Corales forfeited his last fight in October because he couldn't make weight, Diego (40-4, 33 KOs) is a three-time lightweight WBC world champion and had to forfit his belt.

2+2 - please give me a crash course in wagering on a boxing match. Obviously I am rooting for Diego, but I need a good education how to wisely gamble on the match (I have never bet on sports before, I might need some remedial help). Also what sportsbook do you recommend we watch the fight at in Vegas? I'll have a group of friends, so not only do we want to be comfortable, we also want to make sure its a good book to gamble at.

PS: I have $500 for the match, if there are multiple bets to make advise how I should carve up the wagered amounts.

[TheNoodleMan]

sports betting forum, but do let us know how it turns out.

[Josh W]

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PS: I have $500 for the match, if there are multiple bets to make advise how I should carve up the wagered amounts.

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Give $100 to Diego. Bet $400 on his opponent.

J

[trixtrix]

bet on the under and pray for rain

it has a better chance of cashing than diego at this pt

[*TT*]

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PS: I have $500 for the match, if there are multiple bets to make advise how I should carve up the wagered amounts.

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Give $100 to Diego. Bet $400 on his opponent.

J

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I dont think he needs my $100, he is doing fine [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Apparently he is training with WBC light heavyweight champ Chad Dawson, he has been here a lot recently (if that matters at all, i really don't know if it does).

Anyone have a good site for the spread? (newbie remember?), I cannot seem to find it listed anywhere.

[Post-Oak]

Cliff notes at bottom...

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Its probably best that I admit i am a boxing newbie, I don't know much about the scoring system, betting on the sport, or the athletes themselves - except from Diego Corrales - but thats only because he lives in my building and we have become friendly.


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Corrales is a very popular fighter. He is an action fighter, and is the type to seek a KO even when he would be wiser to box.

If you haven't seen his first fight with Jose Luis Castillo, watch it. It was one of the greatest championship fights of all time.

First off, it was a championship fight between two guys who were pretty much universally considered the top two lightweights in the world (rare these days with all the fake belts). It was nonstop action, and had an unbelieveable ending.

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As you may know, he is fighting his first welterweight bout on Saturday on Showtime - two classes above his former class. Corales forfeited his last fight in October because he couldn't make weight


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I think I know what you mean, but he didn't forfeit. The fight went on, and he lost a split decision. The fight wasn't actually all that close, and he definitely lost. He did forfeit any right to the title, which is what I think you mean.

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2+2 - please give me a crash course in wagering on a boxing match. Obviously I am rooting for Diego, but I need a good education how to wisely gamble on the match


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First off, the line is usually skewed towards the "star" attraction. This is even true when a boxer is stepping up in weight. For example, I can remember when it was announced that De La Hoya was gonna step up to middleweight to fight Hopkins. At this time, De La Hoya was a WAY BIGGER star and the initial line was a total joke. It did quickly get bet down, but was still a gift the night of the fight.

Clottey is not well known. Corrales is definitely the "star" here. Clottey got some good press recently in boxing circles by showing his toughness against Margarito (an over rated favorite of boxing journalists everywhere).

In a case like this, you have to ask why did Corrales' "people" take this match? It doesn't seem to make any sense. They definitely think they have a shot to beat Clottey here. If Corrales can win this fight, it will set up a big payday against a star Welter like Cotto (and Corrales can get pounded into retirement in about 100 seconds).

Corrales is claiming he will box more. One thing about betting on boxing is to NEVER believe a fighter when he says he is changing his style from what he has done in his last 20 fights. Also NEVER believe a fighter if he says he was sick, injured or distracted in his previous bout (whether he lost or won ugly).

I was really looking forward to seeing this line, because I assumed that Corrales would have been installed as a favorite. I did find a line, and Clottey is from -200 to -225! Corrales pays from +162 to +175! However, it looks like only British bookmakers have put up a line so far. The reason is probably that books who service Americans realize how popular Corrales is and are between a rock and a hard place as to how to price this bout. Every American boxing fan will have faith in Chico, and would love to get him at even money or better. Every sharp will love to get Clottey as a favorite, since Corrales is moving up so much in weight. I'm sure they are really struggling with what kind of line to hang. It is really hard for them to figure how to price a bout like this.

As much as I was looking forward to betting Clottey, I will not take him at -225. I am not going to touch this bout. Clottey is a bit of a "loser" and is the type to go through the motions, lose a close decision, claim he thought he clearly won, and then go on with his life claiming he is a top Welter. He may claim he was injured (which he did after losing to Margarito). I just don't have enough faith in this guy to lay -225 on him.

Corrales is the type who would rather die than lose (he has proven this in numerous bouts), but he has taken a lot of beatings, and it's not a good sign that he is jumping TWO weight classes. Although he is 5' 11", this guy fought at 130 lbs at one time (until Mayweather destroyed him). He then stepped up to 135 lbs (and was still a bean pole at 5' 11"), and was also considered world class there.

After more tough bouts, including one of the most brutal in recent history, he now can't even make 140 lbs. The jump from 135 to 147 is a big one. His career is winding down. I feel his management took this Clottey bout in hopes Chico can beat the limited but somewhat highly rated Clottey, and then land a big payday. This is how the sport of boxing works. If Chico can win, he can get a big payday against someone who will destroy him (like Mosely or Cotto) or he could get a big payday against another faded but popular fighter like Arturo Gatti.

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(I have never bet on sports before,


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WHAT!!!!!!!!!!!!

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I might need some remedial help). Also what sportsbook do you recommend we watch the fight at in Vegas? I'll have a group of friends, so not only do we want to be comfortable, we also want to make sure its a good book to gamble at.


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Make sure you find a book where there will be plenty of seats. Boxing is not a popular spectator sport, so you should have zero problem getting seating on a Saturday night in even the most posh sportsbooks. This is why I would say Caesars or Bellagio. You don't have to bet where you watch the fight.

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PS: I have $500 for the match, if there are multiple bets to make advise how I should carve up the wagered amounts.

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If you are going to bet on Chico to win (not reccomended), bet it all on him to win by decision. There is a ZERO percent chance he knocks out Clottey. Corrales is a big puncher at 130-135 lbs, but Clottey is considered iron jawed and is a true 147 pounder.

If you are betting on Clottey, I would put most on him to win (without specifying the method) and much less on him to win by KO. He's a tough guy, but not much of a knouckout artist. Still, Corrales has been down a ton in his career and is moving up a lot in weight. It's definitely conceivable he will be stopped.

Cliff notes:
Chico is a bit washed up and moving up too much in weight. I think Clottey is too big and strong for Chico, but I don't like laying 2 to 1 because Clottey isn't the type of "horse" I like to bet on; in boxing you want to put money on "winners", not on "opponents" who refuse to seize what is there for the taking.

Let's see if the line is significantly different when it opens in books available to Americans. Sportsbook.com is one of the books which offers the most boxing odds. I expect they will put a line up soon. The price they offer on Clottey may be a little better. I don't know when the LV casinos will offer a line. Did you check if anyone has a line yet? If anyone has a line yet, Imperial Palace probably would.

[Post-Oak]

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Anyone have a good site for the spread? (newbie remember?), I cannot seem to find it listed anywhere.

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http://odds.bestbetting.com/boxing/p.../fight-result#

http://oddscomparison.free-money.co.uk/

So far, it looks like only British bookmakers have offered odds.

[Post-Oak]

I'm sorry, those site might only show British bookmakers now. I have used them in the past, and they had all books, but now it looks like they are only showing British books.

Anyway, I will post when I find a line available to Americans. It should be up soon in places like Sportsbook.

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It should be up soon in places like Sportsbook.

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oddly sportsbook.com shows the Corrales vs Clotty fight as a final result. I assume thats an error, is that common?

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If anyone has a line yet, Imperial Palace probably would.

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I'll check tomorrow. And thanks Post-Oak, that was a fantastic post, very educating. Does his training with Apparently he is training with WBC light heavyweight champ Chad Dawson change your opinion in any way?