Taking a crack at MLB betting...

[phillydilly]

So, I'm going to use this thread to track my MLB betting, and hopefully not embarass myself to bad.
Now, on with the picks.

Record 0-0, +0 Units

4/3 Picks
Padres +102, 1 Unit
Padres/Giants Over 7.5, -110, 1 Unit

Comments: I like SD here for a couple reasons. I think Peavey is definately better than steadily declining zito. I dont expect much out of a very old SF team. For the O/U, dont have a lot of analysis here, just seems like a low number. Both of these bets are heavily influenced in my lack of confidence in Zito.

[phillydilly]

OK, Day One, 1-1 for +.02 Units!!!
Robusto!!!

Picks for 4/4/07

Bos -151, 1 Unit
Balt +124, 1 Unit
LA(N) -111, 1 Unit
NY(N) +101, 1 Unit
SD +104, 1 Unit

Comments:
Boston - Dont usually like taking at team at -151, but Boston is better in every way, plus I love the pitching matchup.
Baltimore - I like this pitching matchup for balt, and min's bullpen has gotten six scoreless innings, so they are due to give a few up. Plus, I needed an underdog to bet on...
LA(N) - I dont buy into this being Mil's year, I think Schmidt v Suppan is a good matchup also.
NY(N) - Until I see Looper as a starter, I'm betting against him. Overall, I think StL is very weak for a WS Champ. NY lineup is nasty
SD - I like Chris Young, I think this is going to be a very down year for SF. I think its going to be a good year for SD

[phillydilly]

Nice Day Two, 4-1
YTD 5-2, +2.63 Units

Det -135, 1 Unit
Oak +126, 1 Unit
Atl +103, 1 Unit
Ari -102, 1 Unit
Sd -110, 1 Unit

Comments:
Det - Love Verlander v Chacin. If Robertson went 5 2/3 IP giving up 2 runs yesterday, verlander should go 7 and give up 1. And after Det's offense yesterday, definately like them again

Oak - I like the pitching matchup here again. But this game I'm not as confident in as the others

Atl - Again, pitching pitching pitching, I think Atl should be the favorite in this game, so I love them at +103

Ari - Well, I cant say pitching here since both are horrible. But I also don't like Wash lineup, so I'll take Ari in a 8-6 game

SD - Well, SD worked for me so far. I still like their lineup, I still hate SF's lineup. Pitching is close, but I'll go with the younger Hensley, who had a 1.32 era against SF last year

[phillydilly]

A solid Day Three goes in the books with a record of 3-1
YTD 8-3, +4.9 Units

Picks for 4/6/07
Seattle +132
Tampa +122
Chicago (A) -120
Detroit -160
Oakland +107
Philly -112
Washington +102
Mil -112
StL -110
SD -146
LA (N) -105

Comments:
General - I will probably edit this post before the games start. Might drop a few teams that I am not as confident in, also, I'd like to get slightly better lines on a few of these games.

Seattle - I like the pitching matchup for Seattle. Also, I think Cleveland is overrated in general. I would like to see this line a little higher though

Tampa - I think TB is generally underrated, and I like the pitching. Again, I would like to see this line move some

Chi (A) - Really like this game, I expect Thome-Konerko-Dye to destroy Silva. Vazquez isn't great, but more than enough to get the job done.

Det - I may drop this game when I edit. I love Verlander vs KC's lineup, but -160 is a lot to give.

Oakland - Mosely is making is third start in the majors. Oakland has an experienced lineup that could be trouble for a young starter. Angels have a tough lineup, but I think Kennedy can keep them in check enough that I love Oakland at +107

Philly - Moyer vs Mitre and Philly has a stronger lineup, I'm surprised this line isn't at -125

Washington - I took Zona yesterday, but I like the pitching matchup better today for washington

Milwaukee - Good young lineup, nice pitching matchup, a Cubs team full of questions. -112 is a very good price here

StL - Pitching is questionable, I like wainwright overall, but not sure how he'll do as a starter. But I love StL lineup against wandy rodriguez, take this at -110 all day

SD - Greg Maddux v Justin Hirsh. Ship it. Actually, his name is Jason Hirsh, but you had no idea, so that proves my point.

LA (N) - Neither team is that great, but I like Penny against this old team. Like I said perviously, expect a lot of me fading the giants.

[whipsaw]

my math says you're up 4.82 instead of 4.9

you were up 2.63
oakland win up 3.89
atlanta win up 4.92
arizona win up 5.92
padres loss up 4.82

am i wrong?

[phillydilly]

[ QUOTE ]
my math says you're up 4.82 instead of 4.9

you were up 2.63
oakland win up 3.89
atlanta win up 4.92
arizona win up 5.92
padres loss up 4.82

am i wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

up 2.63 at start
1 unit on Oak for a 1.26 win total 3.89
1 unit on Atl for a 1.03 win total 4.92
1 unit on Ari for a .98 win total 5.9
1 unit on SD for a 1 loss total 4.9

you credited me with 1 unit for Ari when it should be .98 unit and you charged me 1.1 unit for SD when it should be 1 unit.

[phillydilly]

Final bets for today, reflect dropping the detroit game and a couple line changes

Picks for 4/6/07
Seattle +136
Tampa +122
Chicago (A) -121
Oakland +109
Philly -112
Washington +102
Mil -112
StL -110
SD -146
LA (N) +102

[phillydilly]

Well, not a real strong day yesterday, 4-4 with two games postponed for a +.04 Units today.

YTD 12-7, +4.94 Units
Now, for 4/7/07 picks
Mil -117
LA (N) -133
NY (N) +105
Ari -134
StL +152
Bal +196
Det -122
Chi (A) - 128
Bos +119
Oak +125

Comments:
General: Should be an interesting day, couple of big dogs here. Great day for baseball fans, there are some good games today.
Mil - After pitching a gem against the Dodgers, I'm going to keep with Sheets. I think anytime you can get sheets at -117, its a good play
LA (N) - Well, here is my daily fading the giants pick. I'm not a fan of Lowe, but I'm less of a fan of Russ Ortiz. And as always, the giants are too damn old
NY (N) - First of all, I love this game as a baseball fan, cant wait to watch. Second of all, If I can get the Mets lineup as an underdog with glavine pitching, I'm taking it.
Ari - Defending NL Cy Young against the Nationals at less than -150, Im all over it. Also, the first game where Webb was touched up was at Colorado, so dont read as much into it
StL - National League Upset pick of the day. I dont like the pitching matcup here, but I'm getting the defending world champs at +152. I'll take my chances.
Bal - American League Upset pick of the day. +196 against a 1-2 Yankee team with a totally unproven starter. Probably lose this bet, but at +196 its still the right call
Det - Think the Tigs are a little bit more of a favorite than this line suggests. Not a lot, but enough to bet it
Chi (A) - 128 - Liked it yesterday, like it today, mainly due to pitching
Bos - I think there is some value in taking a strong Boston team as the dog here. Tavarez isn't fantastic, but neither is millwood. I think this game is pretty much a coinflip, so I'll take the underdog
Oak - Another coinflip game, maybe slight edge in LAA favor, but at +125 I'll take Oakland. Great pitching matchup with Haren & Lackey makes this game very close

[phillydilly]

Ug, bad day yesterday 4-6 for -2.9 Units

YTD 16-13 for +2.04 Units

alright, hopefully a better day today
Picks for 4-8-07

NY (N) -137
Ari -126
Mil -114
LA (N) +128
Bos -126

Mets - Lost this one yesterday, but I like El Duque against Kyle Davies
DBacks - Again, fading a horrible Washington team. Also, I have no confidence in Shawn Hill for Wash.
Brewers - Lost this game the last two days, but I just dont see the Brewers getting swept. Slight pitching advantage for the Brewers here.
Dodgers - My continuing fade of the Giants, especially an overrated zito
Red Sox - Sox have started slow, but I like Schilling at -126

[phillydilly]

Alright, back on track with a nice 4-1 +2.74 Unit Day
YTD 20-14 +4.78 Units

Now for 4-9-07 Picks

NY (N) -120
Pit -109
Col +141
SD -125
Det +122
Chi (A) +158
TB +145

General: Interesting day, took 3 teams at +141 or more. Basically hoping my favorites come thru, then hit on one or two dogs. Took some pitching matchups I didn't necessarily like, which is going against my normal strategy, but we'll see what happens. On to the individual comments
Mets - I'll take a 4-2 team over a 1-5 team for -120 any day. Especially with a close pitching matchup
Pit - Again 4-2 team against 2-4 team. I also like Snell over Looper.
Rockies - I think there is a chance for the upset, and +141 is nice odds
Padres - Fading Giants, again... (Seriously, they're 1-5, its worked pretty well so far)
Tigers - I hate this pitching matchup, but if I can take the defending AL Champs against Balt and get +122, its done.
White Sox - I don't care if Contreras imploded in his last outing. Oakland is 2-4 and giving the sox +158.
DRays - Another pitching matchup I don't like, but another situation where a team with a worse record is a big favorite, I'll take the Drays at +145