($1050) WSOP Satellite make the big call w/ 66?

[ryanghall]

8 left, top 6 get the seat. Notice that 6th place has almost twice the chips I have. The SB is the chip leader and has been extremely aggro. I don't doubt that he's pushing any 2 cards here. If he's not, it's 80% at a *minimum*. My action? Most of the table seems to at least have some clue and there are no uber-donkeys that are going to imminently bust stupidly.

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t800 with t50 antes (8 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t19706)
UTG+1 (t19218)
MP1 (t21523)
MP2 (t25661)
CO (t9229)
Button (t21130)
SB (t42743)
Hero (t10790)

Preflop: Hero is in BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP2 folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to t20800</font>, Hero?

[grafyx]

I thought he should post this because I think its a pretty std fold in a sat situation, even though calling is obv +cEV. You want to be shoving on people who can't call without a premium rather than taking what is most likely a coin flip.

[kniper]

eeeeek. i suck at sats.

OK. If you fold you are left w ~10k? Looking at the stacks sizes directly behind you, I think this is a fold. You are in primo spot to steal from the people behind you when its folded to you in a later hand. There is no doubt I think that you are gonna have to push with suboptimal hands here to steal, so I personally prefer pushing it than calling what is at best a coinflip.

sorry, little logic to my argument, but gut feeling is fold here for better spot.

Im curious to know peoples calling ranges in this spot...

Mine would prob be AJ+, 99+. too tight even for a sat?

[LearnedfromTV]

fold. there's no way that .6*(chance you qual if you win flip) &gt; (chance you qual if you fold).

I think you need JJ+, maybe TT

Edit i just picked .6 as an estimated upper bound on your equity.

[LearnedfromTV]

The SB is the chip leader and has been extremely aggro.

+

there are no uber-donkeys

does not compute.

(Of course this doesn't mean he was going to bust imminently)

[ryanghall]

For a while he was playing well. He was making small raises, winning a ton of pots and avoiding big confrontations. (This would change later) I guess that's what I meant. I think everyone is underestimating the fact that he could have a 6 or under in his hand here, which is quite possible IMO.

Ryan

[kniper]

hey may be pushing any A here, but he could be pushing a lot of other stuff here too, like 22-55. Still i think its a fold

[bagclip2007]

fold for sure, rather be the pusher than the caller, no fE

[Proofrock]

[ QUOTE ]
I think everyone is underestimating the fact that he could have a 6 or under in his hand here, which is quite possible IMO.

Ryan

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really -- even against the top 80% of hands in pokerstove which includes a lot of these hands, you still only have 60% equity.

[levAA]

I think in your situation this can only be a fold.
If you call the most likely are 2 overcards - where you are in a coin flip situation.
If 6 players (from 8 still remaining) get a seat i would call this with JJ+ and AK and nothing else.