1k wsop sat: A 3-bet flop bluff

[grafyx]

First limper is loose and seems bad. This is the 2nd time villain has cold called my isolation raise. The first time, I gave up after a flop c-bet. If villain has a pair, I think his most likely holdings is some 7, 66, 88-99. I don't recognize villian as being a regular high stakes player.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero (t2250)
Button (t2600)
SB (t1860)
BB (t2080)
UTG (t3610)
UTG+1 (t2480)
MP1 (t2440)
MP2 (t2720)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls t20, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t80</font>, Button calls t80, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls t60.

Flop: (t270) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t180</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t420</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t2170</font>

[chrismystero]

hate it all the way, woulda folded QT preflop so early

[omaha]

Agree. ditch that junk

[grafyx]

ok ,assume that it is +ev for me to isolate this particular player preflop. I'm certainly not doing this to any random player. But I want to play some pots in position vs this player will we are deepish.

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
ok ,assume that it is +ev for me to isolate this particular player preflop. I'm certainly not doing this to any random player. But I want to play some pots in position vs this player will we are deepish.

[/ QUOTE ]

PF fine.

Flop...uh...I don't know is he really going to fold now? I would estimate the likelihood of him folding as pretty low readless.

[grafyx]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ok ,assume that it is +ev for me to isolate this particular player preflop. I'm certainly not doing this to any random player. But I want to play some pots in position vs this player will we are deepish.

[/ QUOTE ]

PF fine.

Flop...uh...I don't know is he really going to fold now? I would estimate the likelihood of him folding as pretty low readless.

[/ QUOTE ]

My thinking is that he is some random sat qualifier who doesn't want to risk 1k on a pair of 7s in level 1 when I'm representing JJ+. If he does call, hopefully I have 6 outs twice.


edit: Also note that yeti theorem obviously applies here. And unless he's the 2nd coming of Adam Junglen, I'm hoping he folds AJ and other random overcard bluffing hands.

[WellAdjusted06]

What I like is that you committed to playing the hand a certain way and stuck to it. If I'm Villain I'm outa there unless I've got a 4 or pocket 7's. I don't have a read on Villain but looks like he's sending you a message about your c-bet. Your response isn't unreasonable under the circumstances. Risky, but not unreasonable.

[wpr101]

If you have a strong read on his range which it sounds like you do then it's okay. 447 is about the driest board you could probably ask for and it is unlikely he cold called your raise with a four.

Overall, I don't like it that much. If it was heads up it would be a lot better. I really doubt he is ever doing this with air on this board too. You are putting too much trust in your opponent to be able to lay down a hand here.

[Mr.WeakTight]

the problem that I have with it is that he's shown himself to be somewhat of a calling station. what you makes you think he's going to smarten up and fold now?

[Bond18]

Actually if I'm going to make this play i prefer it against a more known/smart/thinking high buy in player.

I don't think many average players can fold 99/TT here, 88 maybe?