QQ vs FRNIT (shocker)

[Kermit]

four fold and some 11/6 nitball makes it 8.

i cold call in the SB with QQ.

flop is JT8 with two spades. I have the queen of spades.

What is my action? If i check call what is the plan for turn (blank, spade, Q, 9, A/K).

Thanks,

Kermit

[Fonkey123]

Does anyone else just want to fold here? I probably check/call, and don't put much more unless I improve.

[Albert Moulton]

First, I don't like cold calling QQ preflop. I'd reraise to try and take the initiative.

You are probably up against AK/AQ/KK/QQ/JJ/TT.

c/c is lame because you'd probably have to fold if you don't turn a Q and villain bets again.

c/f is probably lame, too, since he might have AK/AQ almost half the time.

So, that leaves bet out. I'd recommend a donk bet for 3/4 pot and give up if he plays back or float/bets the turn.

[Fonkey123]

[ QUOTE ]
First, I don't like cold calling QQ preflop. I'd reraise to try and take the initiative.

You are probably up against AK/AQ/KK/QQ/JJ/TT.

c/c is lame because you'd probably have to fold if you don't turn a Q and villain bets again.

c/f is probably lame, too, since he might have AK/AQ almost half the time.

So, that leaves bet out. I'd recommend a donk bet for 3/4 pot and give up if he plays back or float/bets the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

So your recommendation is to bloat the pot OOP with a hand that figures to not be good very often when you get a decent amount of action?

[Albert Moulton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
First, I don't like cold calling QQ preflop. I'd reraise to try and take the initiative.

You are probably up against AK/AQ/KK/QQ/JJ/TT.

c/c is lame because you'd probably have to fold if you don't turn a Q and villain bets again.

c/f is probably lame, too, since he might have AK/AQ almost half the time.

So, that leaves bet out. I'd recommend a donk bet for 3/4 pot and give up if he plays back or float/bets the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

So your recommendation is to bloat the pot OOP with a hand that figures to not be good very often when you get a decent amount of action?

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol, no. My recommendation is to bet and win when AK/AQ folds since there are 15 combinations of AK (other than As Ks) and 11 combination of AQ (other than As Qs), vs 12 combinations of AA, 12 of KK, 6 of JJ, and 6 of TT.

You will probably win if you lead 26 times. You will lose if you lead 38 times. So, you really aren't bloating the pot if you are going to fold no matter what happens after that unless you turn and river a miracle straight or full house.

So, with a 3/4 pot lead, you're getting 4:3 pot odds for taking a 13:18 risk. It is just about even money for the risk as long as he always folds with AK/AQ and you don't put any more money in after the donk bet.

c/f is 0 EV, so it's probably just as good as leading out given my calculations, but I prefer to lead than c/f if the EV is the same.

c/c and c/r are very bad, IMO. You aren't recommending c/c or c/r, are you?

[Kermit]

albert,

i appreciate you analysis.

i actually c/c and c/f the turn and instantly felt dirty.

i rarely donk flops without a combo draw of set (leak?). i can see how this would be a good spot to donk/shut down though.

thanks,

kermit

[futuredoc85]

kermit, i doubt an 11/6 nitball is going to bluffraise your donkbet because he doesnt think thats how you play a set. i think its probably safe to do that here.

[CanSpoilU]

Reraise pre-flop since you are OOP. 3/4 bet flop.

I tend to play QQ and JJ very aggressively.

[GiantBuddha]

[ QUOTE ]
there are 15 combinations of AK (other than As Ks) and 8 combination of AQ (other than As Qs), vs 6 combinations of AA, 6 of KK, 3 of JJ, and 3 of TT.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP. Your numbers were wrong, but the correct ones actually make your point more valid. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] It's 23:18 instead of 26:38.