whipsaw's April MLB Picks

[whipsaw]

Love baseball! Opening lines are out at Pinny and 5dimes for opening night. I'll post whatever mlb picks I have in separate daily threads in here. I plan on separating spring training from regular season, since the analysis is very different. I hope to post some analysis when I have time, usually on the weekend games.

YTD 0-0

[whipsaw]

Probably too many games for opening night, but here's what I have. All 1 unit.

Orioles +200
DRays +159
Brewers -109
Indians +112
Rangers/Angels Over 8.5

YTD 0-0, 0 units

[SmoothTurn]

First look I like Drays too - Yankees starting Pavano against Kazmir, thats a mismatch

[whipsaw]

[ QUOTE ]
Probably too many games for opening night, but here's what I have. All 1 unit.

Orioles +200
DRays +159
Brewers -109
Indians +112
Rangers/Angels Over 8.5

YTD 0-0, 0 units

[/ QUOTE ]

Adding a Sunday night game: Mets +137

Some short analysis for each bet, just a couple of sentences.

Mets: Carpenter is obviously a better pitcher than Glavine, but not so much so that it overcomes the huge hitting disparity between the teams. The Cards have several holes in their offense. Glavine is old, but he should be fresher in April and pitch better (like last year). Carpenter didn't face the Mets last year, but he is significantly worse against left handed hitting, and he will face five or six (counting Glavine) lefties in the Mets lineup. Despite the STL home field, I think this talented Mets team wins this often enough to beat a +137 price.

Orioles: Yeah, Santana is awesome. But Bedard is no slouch either, although clearly in a different class. Mauer's injury concerns me somewhat, and I'm naturally suspicious of +200 or greater lines. Santana was vulnerable in April last year. I think Baltimore wins this more than one in three times.

DRays: Kazmir >>> Pavano. The DRays always seem to play bigger against the Yankees, and the DRays come in with an improved lineup this year. Obviously the Yanks lineup is better, but I think they'll need to score 7 to win. The DRays are good enough to beat that line with Kazmir against Pavano.

Brewers: Wow. I don't bet a lot of favorites, but giving Sheets a -109 line at home is highway robbery. Lowe is substantially overrated (as is the rest of the Dodgers) while the Brewers don't get enough love for their team. I rate the Milwaukee offense better, the pitching better, and they have the home field. Surely a fair line would be higher than -109.

Indians: Sabathia will be OK for the opener, despite getting hit by a pitch the other day. Contreras really isn't that good, as he showed down the stretch last year. He pitched twice against the Indians last year and got beat around pretty good and the important pieces are still there. The Sox have the distinction of starting two players rated with negative VORPs by PECOTA. The pitching matchup favors the Tribe, as does the hitting matchup. Home field isn't worth that line. I would've expected the line about reversed.

LAA/TEX over: Basically I think that Millwood and Lackey are highly overrated and will give up a ton of runs. The big 3 in Texas have just worn out Lackey over his career.

[whipsaw]

[ QUOTE ]

Adding a Sunday night game: Mets +137


[/ QUOTE ]

1-0 +1.37u

[whipsaw]

Just to clarify before we get into the season too far, for record keeping purposes I will be using: 1u bet on dogs, and bets to win 1u on favs. i don't know if that's standard but it's what I plan on doing.

[StarRain]

U1 ($100) Devilrays
U1 ($100) Dodgers

I bet on William Hill Money Lines before I can find a better site [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[StarRain]

Found 5 Dimes, betted extra 1 unit on DevilRays for their generous +168

[whipsaw]

[ QUOTE ]
Found 5 Dimes, betted extra 1 unit on DevilRays for their generous +168

[/ QUOTE ]

if you're going to post your picks in my thread then at least give some analysis.

[foolishdrunk]

I hate when people come to my thread and just post a pick...