AQo 50nl gets check raised on turn

[prodonkey]

Villain is 16/6/1.5 over a 30 hand sample..

I know everyone is going to say c-bet! I chose not too as my c-bets were getting absolutely no respect at the table, and was planning on making a delayed c-bet or a raise on the turn whether I hit or not.

So I bet the turn.. then get barely over min check raised.. so alarm bells start going off. I was at a bit of a loss as to what to do on the river.. maybe I should have folded to the cr? That seemed weak though. I don't see him paying me off with Ax on the river unless he has aces up weaker than mine and he's obviously not calling with a missed flush draw if that's part of his range. His range in my mind was something like 55, 88, JJ, AJ.. and a slightly lesser chance of A5 A8 J8. Normally I would raise here.. but the check raise on the turn gave me a little pause and confused me.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Button ($23.85)
SB ($181.35)
<font color="#C00000">BB ($71.45)</font>
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($59.90)</font>
MP ($49.25)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($4.25) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($4.25) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $6.5</font>, Hero calls $4.50.

River: ($17.25) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $10</font>, Hero ???

[Machavelli]

I think he's holding AJ a large % of the time, AK, A8, A5 all are in there too. JJ, 88, 55 are in there as well but not as much.

I probably call here. Definitely make a note and use the info for later.

[Cocopops_X]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he's holding AJ a large % of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont agree, i think he will not be holding a jack here because any reasonable poker player would bet a flop like that to eliminate any flush draws. AK seems reasonable to me.

[ADK]

im potting turn. i like to reraise this river..... but i guess you can just call it down.

[elmopoker]

call

[Steam Iron]

Instacall

[stewcrew]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think he's holding AJ a large % of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont agree, i think he will not be holding a jack here because any reasonable poker player would bet a flop like that to eliminate any flush draws. AK seems reasonable to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

When I read this first I immediately thought villan had AJ. Look at it from his perspective. Hero is cbeting constantly, so if vil was prob planning on c/c flop or c/r flop. Its perfectly reasonably to thing that AJ wouldn't lead at this flop. vil now hits two pair on the turn and has no reason not to continue his sneakyplay. so he c/r. once river hits vil only has one hand to worry about AQ.
55 and 88 are also a possiblity, but I feel like AJ he the most likely hand.

[mvdgaag]

I call, easy

[sdunsmb]

I also call, easy - everytime.

[Dastone]

[ QUOTE ]
Instacall

[/ QUOTE ]

While I agree with this being a call, and a fold just about never. To call with out thinking is wrong. I definately think raising should be considered. Stewcrew's explaination is a good argument for why raising should be considered, but I'm just not sure if it will yield us a profit over the long run, since the range of hands villain holds that we beat is so narrow. However this is exactly the type of situation that can greatly increase one's win rate by being able to recognize the situation correctly for what it is. When we are going on imperfect information situations will present themselves, where if we did happen to make a mistake, and are lucky enough to get bailed out by the deck, making up value afterwards should be a top consideration.