100NL flopped flush; how to extract on river?

[TimM846]

I've been lurking and posting for a while now but this is the first hand I'm posting...the first of many [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Reads: It's my second orbit at the table and villian is unknown, but two hands ago he raised a limper and then overbet all in on the flop for about 8 times the pot.

Hero is SB with 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Pre-flop:

UTG folds. Villian calls. CO folds.
BTN folds. Hero (SB) calls. BB checks.

Flop (board: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]):

Hero bets $3. BB folds. Villian calls.

Turn (board: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]):

Hero bets $9. Villian calls.

River (board: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]):

Hero checks. Villian checks.

Analysis: My biggest leak recently has been to check my good hands on later streets with the intention of calling or raising, rather than leading out. The "flop bet, turn c/r against a floater" has been working so well that I've taken a similar approach on hands where such action isn't warranted. Should I bet this river for value, and if so, how much should I bet?

[Unknown Soldier]

definitely bet close to pot again

[FishSticks]

So, either he has a busted draw, or a decent pair type of hand. If he has a busted draw, you can only get cash by letting him bluff. Given that he called the PSB again on the turn, this is less likely. If he has a pair, he's not going to bet the river for value with the board the way it is, so the only way to get the money is to value bet. Also, betting hard again on this river often can look bluffy and be interpreted as a whiffed draw looking to steal - so I'd actually be in favor of a big river bet as opposed to a 1/2 pot value bet here.

[ConfusedAgain]

Bet 1/2 to 3/4 pot depending on style and reads of Villian and yourself. Value and some pot control. Showing weakness here may cause him to overbet an inferior hand which may be too hard to call. Most likely he has Ax, possibly 2 pair.

[binions]

[ QUOTE ]
I've been lurking and posting for a while now but this is the first hand I'm posting...the first of many [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Reads: It's my second orbit at the table and villian is unknown, but two hands ago he raised a limper and then overbet all in on the flop for about 8 times the pot.

Hero is SB with 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Pre-flop:

UTG folds. Villian calls. CO folds.
BTN folds. Hero (SB) calls. BB checks.

Flop (board: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]):

Hero bets $3. BB folds. Villian calls.

Turn (board: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]):

Hero bets $9. Villian calls.

River (board: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]):

Hero checks. Villian checks.

Analysis: My biggest leak recently has been to check my good hands on later streets with the intention of calling or raising, rather than leading out. The "flop bet, turn c/r against a floater" has been working so well that I've taken a similar approach on hands where such action isn't warranted. Should I bet this river for value, and if so, how much should I bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

You might occasionally weak lead the turn, indicating a drawing hand trying keep the pot under control. Sometimes, this induces a raise, to which your push all in can look like a draw.

Whenever you flop a flush, the only way to get value is to bet it. And you did. Sets, 2 pair and A high draws will call you on the flop and the turn usually. Sets and 2 pair may call the river if the 4th suited card does not fall.

So, you have to bet the river in this case too.

Bear in mind that when you flop a flush, there are 28 other flush hands possible, and if you get action, it may be from one of those. Rare, but it happens.

2nd nut flush beats 21 of 28 possible.
3rd nut beats 15 of 28
4th nut beats 10 of 28
5th nut beats 6 of 28
6th nut beats 3 of 28 etc.

[illuminati]

24 looks good. I don't think he bets too much when checked to, and he'll def call with most aces/2ps. Checking kinda blows unless he is bluff happy.

[Jay Riall]

Bet river.

[ConfusedAgain]

A pot bet is also good to represent a missed flush - as stated above. He probably has AK or AQ with a spade.

[TimM846]

[ QUOTE ]
So, either he has a busted draw, or a decent pair type of hand. If he has a busted draw, you can only get cash by letting him bluff. Given that he called the PSB again on the turn, this is less likely. If he has a pair, he's not going to bet the river for value with the board the way it is, so the only way to get the money is to value bet. Also, betting hard again on this river often can look bluffy and be interpreted as a whiffed draw looking to steal - so I'd actually be in favor of a big river bet as opposed to a 1/2 pot value bet here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good points. During this hand I failed to analyze it carefully, and instead I told myself he had a high spade and would bluff the river.

In reality, if he has a high spade he probably has an ace too, giving him showdown value, right? Soon after the hand I realized I played it wrong and he was more likely to call a bet than to bluff

I like your argument in favor of a PSB over a 1/2 PSB. I think the PSB gets called more than half as much as the 1/2 PSB, making it the more profitable play.

Thanks for the replies.

[bilbo-san]

I love to overbet-push the river in spots like this. Shocking how often I get looked up.

Remember, if you bet $82 and he calls 20% of the time, it's the same EV as if you bet $20 and he calls 80% of the time.