tricky turn spot with position and a bazillion outs

[terp]

villain is 2+2, occasional poster. he knows who i am on here. i won't out him but he plays 20/16/2 (1500 hands) and should have me as about 21/19/5.

this is a pretty standard bet spot for me but this player has a history of getting creative and c/r certain hands on the turn. given the coordination of the board and my propensity to fire twice (even after getting called cbetting a three-way flop), i wouldn't be surprised for him to check two pair, a turned straight or some kind of big combo to me. if we were a little deeper, getting c/r here wouldn't be the end of the world but it sucks with these stacks sizes.

to give you an idea, this hand happened between us a few days ago:

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$1/$2 Blinds
6 Players
Lego Poker Hand Converter

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
<font color="green">SB: $304.55</font>
<font color="black">BB: $196</font>
<font color="green">Hero (UTG): $260</font>
MP: $53.05
<font color="black">CO: $201.70</font>
BTN: $182.95

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($3, 6 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $7</font>, MP folds, CO calls $7, BTN folds, SB calls $6, BB calls $5

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($28, 4 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $22</font>, CO folds, SB calls $22, BB folds

<font color="black">Turn:</font> 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($72, 2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $53</font>, <font color="red">SB raises all-in to $275.55</font>, Hero calls all-in for $178
Uncalled bet of $44.55 returned to SB

<font color="black">River:</font> T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($534, 2 Players - 2 All-In)
No Action

Hero had K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (three of a kind, Kings) and won (+$271)
SB had K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (two pair, Kings and Tens) and lost (-$260)

Pot Size: $534 ($3 Rake)


fwiw, he timed down a bit before checking turn.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$1/$2 Blinds
7 Players
Lego Poker Hand Converter

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
SB: $80.55
<font color="green">BB: $202.15</font>
UTG: $202
<font color="green">Hero (UTG+1): $203</font>
<font color="black">MP: $366.90</font>
CO: $171.30
BB (big blind): $0

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($3, 6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7</font>, MP calls $7, 2 folds, BB calls $5

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($22, 3 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $18</font>, MP folds, BB calls $18

<font color="black">Turn:</font> 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($58, 2 Players)
BB checks,

[orange]

I cant really see him checking and calling the flop with a hand like 55/99/JJ.

I can see him doing so with QT, but that hand isnt really in his hand range as much. I think his hand alot of times is something like a sc/AJ/sometimes draw.

I think the chances of you getting c/r-ed is pretty slim here. I cant find many hands he does it with. Would he c/c with a strong hand (2p) on such a drawy board? I doubt it. I think alot of times you can bet without being c/r-ed (unless he has something like J8/QT).

I would bet $44.

[natzucowww]

do you think he's gonna c/r the nut fd on the turn here?

he c/red the first hand b/c he picked up a draw, the only hand here that might be similar is 1010. not sure if he'd stick around with 67 unless they were clubs but you'd know better.

he wouldn't check a set again right? JT, QJ seem probable, and if that's the case i'd fire again, then shove river.

checking's not bad either but two pair or qt don't really fit which makes me want to keep firing, AJ KJ? seems like he'll fold those on the river if not the turn. baahhh i check sometimes and just try to hit.

[MTBlue]

Check behind take a free card. No point on getting blown off your gigantic draw.

[skier_5]

i think the turn check is fine. I might bet sometimes though. On other boards, where a lot of worse flush draws don't have a pair, i might be inclined to bet/call the turn since worse draws may make up a large part of his range.

[Barrin6]

Tought spot, but orange pretty muched sum it up right there therefore betting is fine. If he c/r then i guess it's gg.

BTW we really need more questions like this in ssnl.

edit:
I like villian's play on hand 1.

[gir]

If you want him to fold, then a bet on the turn is probably good.

What I see: Bet on the turn. You have fold equity, and you also juice up the pot. A check-raise is unlikely in this spot because of the limited potential hands he'll have. You want to play this fast, because if you hit on the river, he checks to you, and you bet...It looks almost too obvious. But if you bet the turn as well as the river (assuming you hit), it looks less like a draw and will more likely get paid.

However, if you check the turn, you may induce a bluff on the river by the villain.

I see a lot more benefits to betting than checking. Great hand to post by the way, it's a noodle scratcher!

[deaders]

i really dont see much value in betting, take your free card and get called light when you get there.

also, i think villains play in hand one is horrible - tagfish material right there.

[ElPhoenix]

I think this is a very interesting hand, I think I'm still betting this turn here though. I'm not seeing him c/r a lot of hands here, maybe a J/9 that turned 2pair? I think given the level of mistrust between you guys he can be peeling this flop light, and I think you do have some fold equity on this hand. It seems like his most likely action on the turn if you bet is call&gt;fold&gt;c/r IMO, so betting is a good option. This is a pretty tough spot caterp so sorry if my advice isn't really helpful.

[testaaja]

By betting you make the pot bigger for when you hit your draw but there is the CR factor, which imo is big after that first hand.
My first though is to check and give myself a free card. He has a jack / better hand there imo too often, I'd like to spike a K or a club on river / Q / 7 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].
Ediitt