1 out of 24 - overboat versus quads? other stats?

[instability]

I forget where I heard this, but someone said that if you had flopped an overboat, 1 out of 24 times you are up against quads. Did i remember that right?

Moreover, can someone post me a link to a good site that goes over these situational odds? like in PLO, how often are you:
- up against a lower set?
- with top two, against any set?
- top set, against someone with both nut flush draw and straight draw on the flop?

... stuff like that. hmmmmmmm.

[piiop]

Well it happened to me yesterday so....1/1.

[mixmastermattyk]

You play on Party Piiop? I did it twice yesterday... and it was awesome. Folded a hand in the SB today with 55xx to a minraise and the flop/turn was 55QK and someone had QQ and someone had KK. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

As for the original question, it's fairly player dependent, but in terms of pure mathematical odds (ie. ignoring players moves), I'm really not sure where'd you'd be able to find those numbers. Maybe if you ran some sims yourself?

[fnord_too]

You are not going to find anyplace that has that information handy because you need to have a range of hands for villain and a specific flop. Just calculating how often a specific hand hits various flops is a fair amount of work.

[instability]

I guess what I'm after could be answered by some kind of computer simulation too. But someone must have already thought of finding answers to my basic questions, though, I didn't indicate how many people are at the table. So I guess the software would require # of players as variable in the simulation.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess what I'm after could be answered by some kind of computer simulation too. But someone must have already thought of finding answers to my basic questions, though, I didn't indicate how many people are at the table. So I guess the software would require # of players as variable in the simulation.

[/ QUOTE ]

A simulation is still not going to help you unless you have reasonable pre flop actions for every player at every position. Then, it will depend on the specific flop, too. For instance, if you open raise KK96, get called, and the flop is KJJ there is going to be a higher chance you are up against quads than if the flop came K22 since there are more calling hands with JJ than with 22. This is even more exagerated if the someone else open raises and you call with something like 6679 with a flop of 6AA vice a flop of 336.

If you are wondering the chance a random 4 card hand has of having say 66 in it with a flop of 668 where you have 889t or such, that is easy:
c(43,2)/c(45,4) =~ .6% (164:1).

But the hand is not random, and to do conditional probabilities you need to know in what manner the hand is not random.

[Silent A]

[ QUOTE ]
I forget where I heard this, but someone said that if you had flopped an overboat, 1 out of 24 times you are up against quads. Did i remember that right?

[/ QUOTE ]

This stat assumes every player at a full ring table saw the flop. I like to use a simpler rule of thumb:

There is a roughly 5% chance someone was dealt a particular two card combination (both rank and suit) at a full ring table.

Determine the number of 2 card combinations you're scared of. Some common scenarios:

- You have middle set, there are 3 ways to make top set (only 1 if you hold top pair too).
- You have bottom set, there are 6 ways to make a higher set (only 4 or 2 if you also hold a pair).
- You have top 2, there are 5 ways to make a set (1 top, 1 middle, 3 bottom).
- You have top 3, there are 3 ways to make a set.
- You have 2nd straight, there are 12 ways to make the nut straight.
- You have 2nd flush, there are 7 ways to make the nut flush.

Straight flushes, quads, and over boats usually only have one or two 2-card combinations, so it's usually pretty obvious.

Multiply the number of combinations by 5% and you have a crude estimate of the odds someone was dealt the combination you fear. This works best when the number of combinations is around 4 or less. By the time you get to 12 (straight over straight) this seriously over-estimates the odds that you're beat (actual odds are around 45% rather than 60% - a more accurate formula is: likelihood = 1 - 0.95^[number of combos]).

Finally, adjust this number for the number of players at the table, the number to see the flop, whether it was raised, how loose your opponnets are, and whether these combinations are part of decent hands.

That last step is the tricky part.

[CaptDEEbo]

[ QUOTE ]
You play on Party Piiop? I did it twice yesterday... and it was awesome. Folded a hand in the SB today with 55xx to a minraise and the flop/turn was 55QK and someone had QQ and someone had KK. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

As for the original question, it's fairly player dependent, but in terms of pure mathematical odds (ie. ignoring players moves), I'm really not sure where'd you'd be able to find those numbers. Maybe if you ran some sims yourself?

[/ QUOTE ]


haha what an idiot u folded sb in plo

[RoundTower]

I bet in practice it's a good bit less, more like 1/70. I suppose you could back this up by PTO since neither hand is likely to fold.

I had 77 the other day on a board of 5 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], he bet the river I raised and he just called so I assumed I won. He had 55 though, I would have stacked off without thinking, if I thought about it I probably wouldn't.