Thac's 32s hand from Brew.

[AusDerBunker]

I got a IM from Thac venting about this downswing, but he didn't have the time to chat, so he just pointed me to the brew and I said 'UGH ... tough luck, but that 32s hand ??"

Still we didn't have time to talk and while sitting here, my mind wandered back to that hand and I had to do some work on it. I've collected my thoughts here and posted it, and I'd love some comments on it.


Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.50/$1 Blinds
6 Players
Lego Poker Hand Converter

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
SB: $23
BB: $108.95
<font color="green">UTG: $136.40</font>
MP: $184.10
<font color="green">Hero (CO): $108.10</font>
BTN: $83.90

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($1.50, 6 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $4</font>, MP folds, Hero calls $4, 3 folds

<font color="blue">Rumour has it that UTG is a solid multitabler, so given this info he now has a range of any pair, AJ+, KQ and maybe some suited connectors

Hero could have anytwo, but since there is no threebet, I will look away from AK, TT+ and maybe AQ, leaving us with small pocket pairs and some speculative hands like suited one gappers or connecters. </font>


<font color="black">Flop:</font> 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($9.50, 2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $7</font>, Hero calls $7

<font color="blue">Villain bets and hero calls, this does not say much, hero could be looking at an eight o, but right now a float or a pair is also a big possibility also some kind of draw like T9, QT, 79</font>

<font color="black">Turn:</font> 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($23.50, 2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $11</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $31</font>, UTG calls $20

<font color="blue">This looks small, so question is whether it is an attempt at a cheap bluff or a suckbet. Let us see .... the thing is that with villians range, 88, 99,TT, JJ and perhaps an AdKd. are interested in this board, while QQ, KK, AA also might be hard to lay down. So the only hands that are not interested are AQ, AJ and KQ and the small pairs, then there are the odd suited connectors, but actually a lot of there have hit as well.

But then again what has hero hit ? ... well an eight is still a possibility, but only QT makes a draw hit, so question is whether a raise really represents anything
Also there is a question of betsizing, is this half pot raise really scary or is it better to use big force and bet pot ?
<font color="purple">-------------------------------------------------------------------
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,415,436 games 0.250 secs 5,661,744 games/sec

Board: 8d Jd 8h 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.305% 55.94% 01.36% 791792 19317.50 { 99-33, KTs+, Q6s+, J6s+, T7s+, 95s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 32s, AJo, QTo+, J8o+, T8o+, 97o+, 86o+, 76o, 32o }
Hand 1: 42.695% 41.33% 01.36% 585009 19317.50 { 22+, AJs+, KQs, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AJo+, KQo }

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------</font>

Now this surprices me a lot, while writing the text above, I kinda had a feeling that Hero had difficulties representing anything, but if we look at Heros range vs. Villians range, then it becomes a different matter altogether .... Hero might hold anytwo, but is way ahead of villians range and I can’t see villian calling much here. </font>


<font color="black">River:</font> 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($85.50, 2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets all-in for $66.10</font>


<font color="blue">And here is where it ends, that 8 kills imho opinion anything hero could hope, calling the turn raise, Villians range looses a lot of the speculative stuff and imo consist of only either pairs or some suited connectors that well ... connected.

While Hero only can win this hand by betting, Zeebo’s theorem says noone is laying down a boat here.

I say good turnbluff (allthough I'd make it slightly bigger, like 40$) .... Horrid river bluff.


The thing is that Hero might have an 8 and the nuts, but small pairs to not bet here, as they have show down value I suspect, so ...

<font color="purple">---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

8,465 games 0.005 secs 1,693,000 games/sec

Board: 8d Jd 8h 9c 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.248% 17.02% 03.23% 1441 273.00 { 88, 22, KTs+, Q6s+, J6s+, T7s+, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 65s, 32s, AJo, QTo+, J8o+, T8o+, 97o+, 86o+, 76o, 32o }
Hand 1: 79.752% 76.53% 03.23% 6478 273.00 { 88+, AdKd, AJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, AJo }
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------</font>

It is becomming difficult for Hero to represent anything here and betting seems like spewing to me. </font>

[prodonkey]

He's trying to represent quads.. the guy calls the turn because he has open ended as well as his pair.. small pairs don't bet the river.. a J probably would which would be the only legitimate hand that he can have here that beats the guy. Does he cold call raises with many hands with a J in.. I say no.. as they are all going to be dominated hands vs an utg raiser. Personally I think calling raises with 23s is spew.

[AusDerBunker]

[ QUOTE ]
He's trying to represent quads.. the guy calls the turn because he has open ended as well as his pair.. small pairs don't bet the river.. a J probably would which would be the only legitimate hand that he can have here that beats the guy. Does he cold call raises with many hands with a J in.. I say no.. as they are all going to be dominated hands vs an utg raiser. Personally I think calling raises with 23s is spew.

[/ QUOTE ]

Consitently calling raises from btn with 32s is a spew, but calling a raise with it once in a while based on opponent can be ok, allthough frankly I bigger bigger cards like T7s or K6s (not making them too connected to keep the discussion to the theme of trashy hands) ... but hey ..

[Sean Fraley]

I have a lot of respect for THAC, but I have to agree that 23s is basically useless, and this is being said by a guy who plays 35/25 in late position.

[Sean Fraley]

[ QUOTE ]
Consitently calling raises from btn with 32s is a spew, but calling a raise with it once in a while based on opponent can be ok, allthough frankly I bigger bigger cards like T7s or K6s (not making them too connected to keep the discussion to the theme of trashy hands) ... but hey ..

[/ QUOTE ]

Suited two-gappers down to 52s and suited kings are fine in late position, especially with how hidden they are when they make straights. I find them very playable against players who don't read the board as carefully as they should, or who refuse to slow down when the third card of a suit hits the board.

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
The 32s hand - it doesn't show it in the hand history but he timed down until he almost timed out on the turn, so I put him on some kind of a weird draw (I figured diamonds) and he thought for a whole like 1 second before checking to me on the river, and I didn't think my hand was best, so unless he wanted to make a hero call with AXd, I didn't think he could call. So I shoved after a bit of thought and he again timebanked until almost zero and called. I was reaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaally shocked that he called with second pair there because it's almost never good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's what I wrote in the 'brew about this hand.. It was mostly a timing tell that he was pretty weak, I just didn't see him firing two barrels with a J here, and when he just called my raise on the turn, he didn't have QQ+ because it 3-bets to get it allin because a lot of rivers make it a VERY tough call for a 3/4 pot river bet.

Edit - Villain's stats from what I had so far: 25.5/21.8 with 4.86 flop aggression and 4.00 turn aggression and only 1.00 on the river. It looks a lot like villain likes to double barrel with weaker hands.

I didn't have anything about his positional stats, but looking back, he's 21/21 from UTG.

[Jigsaws]

This is just spew on every street. Turn raise is also a bad bluff, because you're repping 88/99 only. I'd suspect you'd raise 88 on the flop on this kind of board, so that leaves only 99.

Edit: QdTd... I guess, but wouldn't you raise that on the flop as well? You're just not making sense.

[AusDerBunker]

[ QUOTE ]

Here's what I wrote in the 'brew about this hand.. It was mostly a timing tell that he was pretty weak, I just didn't see him firing two barrels with a J here, and when he just called my raise on the turn, he didn't have QQ+ because it 3-bets to get it allin because a lot of rivers make it a VERY tough call for a 3/4 pot river bet.

Edit - Villain's stats from what I had so far: 25.5/21.8 with 4.86 flop aggression and 4.00 turn aggression and only 1.00 on the river. It looks a lot like villain likes to double barrel with weaker hands.

I didn't have anything about his positional stats, but looking back, he's 21/21 from UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you played it good, the point of you turn bluff is to push him of some marginal pair, and the fact that he almost timed down makes it likely that a marginal pair is infact what he holds.

It is just that the river kills most your action making all represented straghts and so on fade, so you can only represent a Jack or an Eight, both unlikely ... the eigths is a possibility, but would a marginal Jack raise turn ??

[EMc]

thac,

What level do you think he operates on?

[prodonkey]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The 32s hand - it doesn't show it in the hand history but he timed down until he almost timed out on the turn, so I put him on some kind of a weird draw (I figured diamonds) and he thought for a whole like 1 second before checking to me on the river, and I didn't think my hand was best, so unless he wanted to make a hero call with AXd, I didn't think he could call. So I shoved after a bit of thought and he again timebanked until almost zero and called. I was reaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaally shocked that he called with second pair there because it's almost never good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's what I wrote in the 'brew about this hand.. It was mostly a timing tell that he was pretty weak, I just didn't see him firing two barrels with a J here, and when he just called my raise on the turn, he didn't have QQ+ because it 3-bets to get it allin because a lot of rivers make it a VERY tough call for a 3/4 pot river bet.

Edit - Villain's stats from what I had so far: 25.5/21.8 with 4.86 flop aggression and 4.00 turn aggression and only 1.00 on the river. It looks a lot like villain likes to double barrel with weaker hands.

I didn't have anything about his positional stats, but looking back, he's 21/21 from UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you have to shove the river since you got here in this matter.. but however he does like to call.. and if he does have any hand reading ability you're prolly going to have a hard time getting him off anything besides AKd.