4/5 UFC Fight Night Discussion

[TalkingDonkey]

Didn't see a thread in Sports Betting, plus I don't bet, so I'm making one here. Performify et al, I'm looking for you guys; Mods feel free to xpost/move to Sports Betting.

This is looking like a card full of some great fights; the main event should be a barnburner even moreso now that Guillard threw down the gauntlet today and called Stevenson out for using HGH. Florian-Mishima also looks to be a great fight. I'm only going to cover the main card fights as I don't know much about Roan Carneiro, Naoyuki Kotani or Thiago Tavares.

My picks:
Melvin Guillard vs. Joe Stevenson - Lightweight

Both are very experienced with around 30 fights apiece. Joe is a huge 155-pounder, and he has one of the best MMA-adapted ground games out there. Melvin is hyperathletic and has ridiculous power - his last 2 fights have ended in one-punch KO's (and one was a body shot, sick!). He has a wrestling background, but Gabe Reudiger owned him on the ground at UFC 63, mounting him and taking his back very easily. Stevenson's ground game, however, is light years ahead of Gabe's. Melvin must defend the takedown to win; if it goes to the ground Stevenson is double trouble - he has aggressive subs and can also throw GnP with the best of them (see the Yves Edwards fight for an example). The X-factor in this fight will be conditioning. Melvin's gas tank is unproven in the Octagon, he hasn't fought past 8 minutes yet. He trains with Tito's Team Punishment who pride themselves on conditioning, so I expect him to be in shape. Joe in shape is a monster, but he gassed out and lost against a clearly inferior Josh Neer at 170. There were rumors he might have had to drop the fight after a knee injury while snowboarding, so his condition may be questionable. Assuming both fighters show up in shape, I give the fight to Stevenson by submission.

Antoni Hardonk vs. Justin McCully - Heavyweight

The true winner here is Frank Mir, who won't have to suffer a second straight knockout loss. Hardonk is a solid Dutch Muay Thai striker and is one of the best non-CroCop strikers in the UFC. He also has a surprisingly good ground game and has no fear of engaging should the fight go there. It likely will against McCully, who is primarily a submission fighter out of the Team Punishment camp. He took a 3-year hiatus but returned to action is October 2006, scoring two quick submission wins. Unfortunately, he is just outclassed by Hardonk here. I don't see McCully being able to score a submission; his only hope is to win by lay-and-pray. Hardonk by early and smashing (T)KO.

Mishima vs. Kenny Florian - Lightweight

The most intriguing matchup of the night to me. Mishima is a very well-rounded fighter with wins over Krazy Horse, Marcus Aurelio, and Imanari. Florian is a black belt in jiu-jitsu but also has some underrated stand-up and good, slicing elbows. Both are coming off losses; Florian to Sean Sherk by UD and Mishima to Joe Stevenson by guillotine choke. The wild card in this fight is Florian's ground game. He has looked stellar on the ground against Kit Cope and Sam Stout, but both were basically pure strikers. He has never faced anyone of equal level on the ground yet, and Mishima will be the closest to him in terms of ground skill. If he can secure top position, I think he can pass guard and find a sub or land solid GnP. But Mishima is very tricky and has 3 times as many fights as KenFlo has had. I think Mishima will score on the feet and be able to tie up KenFlo if or when it hits the floor. Mishima by decision.

Keita Nakamura vs. Drew Fickett - Welterweight

K-Taro Nakamura holds a stellar 13-1 record with most of his fights coming in Japan's GCM promotion, he trains alongside fighters such as Yushin Okami and Caol Uno. His only loss came in his last fight, his UFC debut against Brock Larson. Many felt K-Taro deserved the decision as he landed solid strikes but was basically laid on by an inactive Larson. His biggest weapon is a rear naked choke, which has led to a ridiculous 7 of his wins. After the loss to Larson, it was reported he hit the weights and has bulked up to better deal with the UFC's mega-athletic 170-pound class. Drew Fickett is a very well-rounded fighter with no one aspect of his game that stands out. He is highly experienced with over 30 fights and holds wins over Kenny Florian, Edwin Dewees and handed Josh Koscheck his only loss. His background is in wrestling and he is solid on the ground, but his standup is proficient as well. He always shows up in great shape and pushes the pace of the fight, making for an exciting battle. The deciding factor will be Fickett's experience and cardio; K-Taro's opposition has been suspect compared to Fickett's, Nakamura's ground game is impressive, but Fickett recently choked out BJJ black belt Kurt Pellegrino so the ground may not be to K-Taro's advantage. Fickett's pressing style and overwhelming cardio will be too much for the relatively green K-Taro. Fickett by late submission.

[zer0]

good writeup. this is gonna be an underrated card, because of the lack of "big" names (even for a ufn), but i love the televised matchups.

i'm assuming guillard/stevenson is for #1 contender, so i'll be rooting for guillard. stevenson/sherk seems like a potentially very boring matchup.

[Seadood228]

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Stevenson/sherk seems like a potentially very boring matchup.

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Agreed.

The main event looks to be a good one, and I'll be pulling for Melvin for the aforementioned. I think Melvin has a better chance beating Sherk than Joe does as well.

[TalkingDonkey]

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Stevenson/sherk seems like a potentially very boring matchup.

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Agreed.


The main event looks to be a good one, and I'll be pulling for Melvin for the aforementioned. I think Melvin has a better chance beating Sherk than Joe does as well.

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Winner of this fight will fight the winner of Hermes Franca vs. Sherk. I disagree that Melvin has a better chance of beating Sherk than Joe Daddy - it doesn't matter who you are, Sherk WILL put you on your back. There's nobody in the 155 division who can stop his takedowns, not even BJ Penn. Stevenson at least has the ability to throw submissions off his back, Melvin does not. But Sherk has those short, massive arms making him ridiculously impossible to armbar from guard. The only way I see him losing at 155 is by getting swept, being backmounted and getting choked. He's like a super-explosive Matt Hughes in a division without a GSP.

[Seadood228]

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I disagree that Melvin has a better chance of beating Sherk than Joe Daddy - it doesn't matter who you are, Sherk WILL put you on your back. There's nobody in the 155 division who can stop his takedowns, not even BJ Penn. Stevenson at least has the ability to throw submissions off his back, Melvin does not. But Sherk has those short, massive arms making him ridiculously impossible to armbar from guard. The only way I see him losing at 155 is by getting swept, being backmounted and getting choked. He's like a super-explosive Matt Hughes in a division without a GSP.

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I sort of agree.

I think Joe has NO SHOT at submitting Sherk, and less of a shot at knocking him out. IIRC the Shark has never been submitted, and personally I've never seen anyone come remotely close.

Melvin at least has KO power and explosiveness, so might be able to land a few shots, or one, that might disrupt the fight. He's got a better chance of cutting Sherk as well, which looks to be his only weakness.

[zer0]

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Winner of this fight will fight the winner of Hermes Franca vs. Sherk. I disagree that Melvin has a better chance of beating Sherk than Joe Daddy - it doesn't matter who you are, Sherk WILL put you on your back. There's nobody in the 155 division who can stop his takedowns, not even BJ Penn. Stevenson at least has the ability to throw submissions off his back, Melvin does not. But Sherk has those short, massive arms making him ridiculously impossible to armbar from guard. The only way I see him losing at 155 is by getting swept, being backmounted and getting choked. He's like a super-explosive Matt Hughes in a division without a GSP.

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i didnt say guillard has a better chance of beating sherk than stevenson, i just think it would be a better matchup (its not like i hate sherk and want him to lose his belt)

hermes franca has no shot whatsoever, outside of a fluke ko, fwiw. sherk is gonna bang him out in ridiculous fashion.