Will a male be in the final 2?

[mynamewastaken]

Pinny is offering odds on 'Yes' at +145.

There are 4 contestants currently in contention for the final 2 spots: Melinda, Lakisha, Jordin, Blake. I would say everyone else's chances can be rounded to 0.

All things being equal, each one of these contestants has an identical shot of being in the final 2 (note I did NOT say they each have a similar shot at winning). Even if you take Melinda out of the equation, assuming she will be in the final 2 no matter what, that still leaves 3 people vying for 2nd place for a 33% chance each of making it to the finals.

I think 33% on Blake is too low, though, since I can't see a scenario where the final 2 is Melinda/Lakisha. In fact, I have a hard time picturing Melinda/Jordin, and see it as more likely that Melinda is eliminated in 3rd or something than a Doolittle/Sparks finale. Given that, I would put Blake's chances of making the finals at somewhere between 33 and 50%. Great value on +145... especially when you consider the 1 in a million shot that someone like Sligh or Sanjaya makes it deep.

I've hit this bet up as hard as I'm prepared to. It is by no means a lock or a sure thing but I see great value at this price.

Just my $0.02.

BTW if anybody has the WSEX odds following Brandon's elimination could you post it or PM me? Thx.

[LBK]

Blake is the only one with a decent shot IMO. I think it will be Jordin and Melinda in the final 2.

[nyc999]

I think it will be a Melinda/Blake final, with Jordin in third. Melinda will take too many of her votes when down to three.

[ActionJeff]

Melinda is so ugly and has no range even though her voice is very powerful, it is also one dimensional.... I think people will tire of her, Jordin will make the finals, and someone retarded will win.

[thing85]

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Melinda is so ugly and has no range even though her voice is very powerful, it is also one dimensional.... I think people will tire of her, Jordin will make the finals, and someone retarded will win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Solid analysis.

[curtains]

I think Lakesha is in big trouble, and might go a lot earlier than people think.

[mynamewastaken]

[ QUOTE ]
I think Lakesha is in big trouble, and might go a lot earlier than people think.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been saying she doesn't make top6 since before the 1st semifinal show. How much earlier can she go? Surely she's safe this week, with Phil, Gina, Haley, Sanjaya, Richardson all still in play at the bottom.

[thing85]

I think Lakisha still outlasts at least Phil, Gina, Haley, and Richardson. Not sure if she outlasts Sanjaya, but I still think she does. I think she's most likely to go out 4 or 5.

I really think people are putting too much weight into last week's performance. If Lakisha nails her next song, I think most "analysts" will put her in the top 4.

As a side note, I wonder how many votes she'll collect from the ex-Stephanie fans.

With all of that said, I think her current WSEX price of $20 is about the highest she *should* go. I know one good performance, however, will cause some people to go crazy and push her price up a little bit.

[metsandfinsfan]

so is shorting lakisha a good move at this point?

[SoCalRugger]

[ QUOTE ]
I think Lakisha still outlasts at least Phil, Gina, Haley, and Richardson. Not sure if she outlasts Sanjaya, but I still think she does. I think she's most likely to go out 4 or 5.

I really think people are putting too much weight into last week's performance. If Lakisha nails her next song, I think most "analysts" will put her in the top 4.

As a side note, I wonder how many votes she'll collect from the ex-Stephanie fans.

[/ QUOTE ]
Lakisha has a good voice, but she almost puts me to sleep every time she performs. She's so boring on stage. I would not be surprised if she goes out before 5th.

And I think most of Stephanie's votes will go to Jordin rather than Lakisha.