Theoretical O8 Spot

[Bavid Denyamine]

I've had a few people disagree with me on this situation, and I'd be interested to hear what some of the experts here think. Imagine you are at a full ring O8 game against knowledgeable but not expert players. The game is both marginally tight and marginally aggressive. The players are smart enough to know the value of hands.

You are on the button with K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. UTG raises, folded to a MP player who re-raises, the cutoff flat calls. You...?

I've always thought this is a great spot to cap the betting. With the action in front of you, it's highly probable that the players are sharing a lot of similar low cards, and that there may be no aces left in the deck. If the deck is light in low cards, your hand becomes very playable.

I made up some sort-of believable hands for each player and ran it through pokenum, to which these are the results: http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2522837

If you're getting a pretty decent EV to play this hand, what should you do? Cap it? Fold?

I suppose I could simplify the entire question into this: If you are in late position with a strong high only hand, and there are raises in front of you, your hand becomes more playable given the tendency of other players to be sharing the same cards.


Opinions? Is this play profitable? At least your hand would be easy to get away from if you catch air on the flop and you wouldn't be putting in multiple big bets when you can only win a fraction.

[Fiasco]

If the first two players have very narrow raising and reraising ranges (AAwx and A2wx)then I guess youd have to play this here. I guess it all comes down to what "knowledgable but not expert" and "marginally tight and marginally aggressive" means.

I see very little value in capping it though. Its no problem if it gets capped but I dont think that youre really adding any deception to your hand by doing it, and I think that at this point youd just as soon see one of the blinds come along. Dont think you could possibly have enough of an equity edge to make it worthwhile preflop.

[1MoreFish4U]

It is a very loose play.

Think of all of the possible flops that you don't like.

You already have 3 players showing strength and the blinds have not acted yet.

I can see playing the hand from the button for 2 bets, but it's a lot easier to let the hand go & take advantage of better opportunities.

[Bavid Denyamine]

I agree that there are flops you don't like, but if there's a higher tendency for a flop that you DO like (way more high cards left than low cards), and since you most probably have the highest % to scoop, how is it not profitable?

In the sample hand setup I posted, I think I'd much rather have position and KQJT than any other hand. The positional advantage would have to negate the small EV edge that one other hand has on you.

[T50_Omaha8]

[ QUOTE ]
how is it not profitable?

[/ QUOTE ] Reverse implied odds. Get ready for a lot of bad rivers and losing flushes.

[Micturition Man]

Meh people are just being nitty here.

You are correct that this is a great spot if you can really put your opponents on distributions that are heavily skewed toward low cards and AA.

However the particular hands you chose as your example are imo unrealistically extreme - that 2345 for example does nothing but kill outs for the other low hands.

In practice you will not be the only person playing high hands, and people will often have hilo hands like AKQ3 or whatever that cut a lot into your equity.

But yeah, if your opponents hold something like the hands you gave, or if they are highly likely to, this is a great spot for you.

O8 is just a funny game like that.

It's mostly due to card deadness plus the inherent strength of your hand.

[SweetLuckyMe]

That's a terrible hand to call 3 cold or cap it. I'd limp for a bet, but putting that much money into a pot with that kind of ragged one way hand is a bit ridiculous. Way too many flops will find you drawing to runner runner. With a pot that big even the small flush draws will be taking cards off and you'll be dodging suits even if you hit a favorable straight drawish/2 pr flop. That's a big money loser.

[SweetLuckyMe]

[ QUOTE ]
In the sample hand setup I posted, I think I'd much rather have position and KQJT than any other hand. The positional advantage would have to negate the small EV edge that one other hand has on you.

[/ QUOTE ] If your hand were double suited your point may have some merit, but when you bloat a pot up like that everyone will be correct in chasing even small flushes. Even if you get a good flop to your hand, if there's a flush possible you've got a lot of cards to dodge.

Also, position is nice, but in a multi-way big omaha pot its significance is reduced greatly.

[prodonkey]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In the sample hand setup I posted, I think I'd much rather have position and KQJT than any other hand. The positional advantage would have to negate the small EV edge that one other hand has on you.

[/ QUOTE ] If your hand were double suited your point may have some merit, but when you bloat a pot up like that everyone will be correct in chasing even small flushes. Even if you get a good flop to your hand, if there's a flush possible you've got a lot of cards to dodge.

Also, position is nice, but in a multi-way big omaha pot its significance is reduced greatly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well said.. I'm not cold calling 3 with this hand.. nor capping it out of position.. I would call if it was double suited.

In a capped pot preflop.. nobody goes anywhere on the flop.. it could be 9TK rainbow.. and everyone will call.. and you're still going to lose prolly 1/2 the time to runr runr flush/full even if you got a miracle flop like that. You're going to end up putting 4 bets in this pot.. and having to fold on the flop about 2/3 of the time anyway.. or more likely seeing a marginal flop such as 48K and having to call multiple bets on the flop to get to the turn. This hand really doesn't have a lot going for it in a big multiway pot. I'd much rather have KKJQ

[Buzz]

Bavid - I’d fold. In my humble opinion, you don’t have enough opponents to continue with this hand.

When I like a flop with this hand, either (1) I’ll only need one card on the turn or river to make what I consider a nice high hand at the showdown - or (2) I’ll have flopped a nice high hand. A nice high hand for me with these cards is probably a straight or better at the showdown. I realize that trips or two pairs will sometimes win for high with this hand.

11272/17296 = 65.2% I will fold to a bet after the flop.
5272/17296 = 30.5% I will be drawing after the flop with an average of 10.6 outs. On the average, I’m about 42% likely to make my draw by the river.
752/17296 = 4.3% I will have a made high hand on the flop. (a straight or better).

Only 376 of the flops I will like will have three high cards (6.2%).
4240 or the flops I will like will have one low card (70.4%).
1408 of the flops I will like will have two low cards (23.4%).

When the flop is favorable for this hand, I won’t expect many opponents. Those who stick around probably will hold similar hands. An exception to not having many opponents is the 23.4% when the flop is favorable but has two low cards.

I will want to have gotten more money into the pot when the flop is favorable and I go on to win the hand - but otherwise I will want to get out cheaply.

65.2/100 I expect to fold to a bet after an unfavorable flop.
18.3/100 I expect to get a drawing flop but miss my draw. However, some of the time when I miss, I’ll still have trips of two pairs at the showdown and might eke out a win.
12.2/100 I expect to get a drawing flop and make my draw. However, some of the time even though I make my draw, I’m going to lose to a better hand.
4.3/100 I expect to flop a straight or better.

In a full game, Hero will probably end up with the best high less than one fifth of the time with this hand, if that much, and some of those will be splits.

I’d like to see the flop cheaply with this hand, because the hand is easy to play after the flop.

But the price is too high and there are not enough opponents paying it.

[ QUOTE ]
I've always thought this is a great spot to cap the betting.

[/ QUOTE ]I disagree.[ QUOTE ]
With the action in front of you, it's highly probable that the players are sharing a lot of similar low cards, and that there may be no aces left in the deck.

[/ QUOTE ]It's possible, I suppose. I guess it depends on how your opponents play. I wouldn't generally read it that way.

[ QUOTE ]
If the deck is light in low cards, your hand becomes very playable.

[/ QUOTE ]It's very playable anyhow - you just need more opponents seeing the flop with you and then continuing when you get a favorable flop.

[ QUOTE ]
I suppose I could simplify the entire question into this: If you are in late position with a strong high only hand, and there are raises in front of you, your hand becomes more playable given the tendency of other players to be sharing the same cards.

[/ QUOTE ]That simply isn't how my opponents generally play. Instead there is a lot of limping with low hands and maybe some raising by someone who either over-rates his hand or thinks he can steal.

[ QUOTE ]
Opinions? Is this play profitable?

[/ QUOTE ]No! It's suicidal.

[ QUOTE ]
At least your hand would be easy to get away from if you catch air on the flop and you wouldn't be putting in multiple big bets when you can only win a fraction.

[/ QUOTE ]That's true. But wouldn't you rather get away cheaply when you have a loser?

Buzz