Thursday's NCAA tournament games (group thread)

iggymcfly · #1 03-21-2007, 09:54 PM

Kind of liked what we did last week with a group discussion thread for all the games. Helped me lay off a couple borderline plays and was nice to see where the forum was at. Figured I'd start another for tomorrow's games with the idea that raw picks are OK, but it's mainly a thread for picks + analysis.

So far, I'm on:

Southern Illinois +5 vs. Kansas (1st half) (2 units):

The Salukis should be able to keep this low-scoring as they rank 325th in pace and 12th in defensive efficency. I think their low-scoring style makes them undervalued by simple MOV comparisons like Sagarin predictor when actually, they should be able to keep it close until late. If you use the rating comparison instead of the predictor, SIU's only a 6-point dog for the game (and thus 3 for the first half).

With this margin of victory, I think that the probability of SIU having to foul late makes +5 for the first half preferable to +9 for the game. Also, while I think Kansas is extremely unlikely to overlook SIU, the underdog facing the 1 seed is going to have a little extra adrenaline in the first half and is more likely to "play over their heads" there than they would be after halftime.

Edit: Figured I needed just a little more analysis here. First off, missing Matt Shaw would seem to hurt the Salukis somewhat and make the spread naturally a little higher. However, they came up with one of their best games of the year without him against Virginia Tech, so I really don't think it will hurt too much, especially when they haven't played in 5 days and can play a 7-man rotation without worrying about fatigue. Also, SIU's biggest weakness (lack of size) can't be exploited by the Jayhawks since they don't have any starters over 6'9".

MyTurn2Raise · #2 03-21-2007, 11:33 PM

I really love the Kansas ML v SIU
I mean, I really love it

bet 10u to win 2.11u

I just don't see how SIU will score. KU is to athletic and long. On the other side of the ball, Wright's size and ability to pass over the top will be the key.

MyTurn2Raise · #3 03-21-2007, 11:39 PM

UCLA ML v Pitt
bet 1.5u to win 1u

I think the pro-UCLA crowd is enough to tip the balance that I have UCLA about 65% to win.

MyTurn2Raise · #4 03-21-2007, 11:41 PM

3-team parlay over the two days
Kansas ML v SIU
UNC ML v SC
Florida ML v Butler
bet 2.5u to win 1.75u

Kansas and Carolina are very underpriced IMO and I'm betting both separately. Florida is pretty evenly priced, but I threw them in the parlay too because I'm a donkey.

MyTurn2Raise · #5 03-21-2007, 11:45 PM

another parlay
6-team parlay over the two days
Kansas ML v SIU
UNC ML v SC
Florida ML v Butler
tOSU ML v Tennessee
G'Town ML v Vandy
UCLA ML v Pitt
bet 2u to win 8.52u

This tourney has been chalk central....let's see if it happens one more round.

whipsaw · #6 03-21-2007, 11:51 PM

you like tOSU ML versus giving the points? i love them against Tenn in that freakin dome

NajdorfDefense · #7 03-21-2007, 11:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I really love the Kansas ML v SIU
I mean, I really love it

bet 10u to win 2.11u
I just don't see how SIU will score. KU is to athletic and long. On the other side of the ball, Wright's size and ability to pass over the top will be the key.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, c'mon this is n00b thinking. SoIll had a 4 rpi, is 17th in Sagarin, played the 8th toughest sked, pretty much whooped a solid VaTech team, is 14th in Pomeroy Defense and #1 in Consistency [whereas Kansas is 282].
You can't imagine Kansas perhaps having a poor shooting night? SoIll has 5 guys who can run, they are not slow, Self took a similar Tulsa team to the Elite 8, KU doesn't even have a size advantage over them. Kansas has no seniors and they managed to lose to OralR and DePaul this year [altho not recently].
The Salukis are a 4-seed, they most certainly can win. Zabian Dowdell had a monster year and he got shut down by their D, totally.

I lean KU, but will likely hold off on this one. I can't see laying 5-1 on KU, even if I can see laying 4-1 on UNC.

NajdorfDefense · #8 03-22-2007, 12:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
you like tOSU ML versus giving the points? i love them against Tenn in that freakin dome

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been thinking alot about that recently. The line looks pretty good but people don't adjust for the Dome factor, see Nova v Fla and BC last year, Shammond Williams' 2-13fg at the Alamodome 10 years ago, etc, etc ad infinitum.

NajdorfDefense · #9 03-22-2007, 12:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
3-team parlay over the two days
Kansas ML v SIU
UNC ML v SC
Florida ML v Butler
bet 2.5u to win 1.75u

Kansas and Carolina are very underpriced IMO and I'm betting both separately. Florida is pretty evenly priced, but I threw them in the parlay too because I'm a donkey.

[/ QUOTE ]

that bet would pay 1.81u at Cris.

whipsaw · #10 03-22-2007, 12:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you like tOSU ML versus giving the points? i love them against Tenn in that freakin dome

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been thinking alot about that recently. The line looks pretty good but people don't adjust for the Dome factor, see Nova v Fla and BC last year, Shammond Williams' 2-13fg at the Alamodome 10 years ago, etc, etc ad infinitum.

[/ QUOTE ]

also why I like the under. i have no idea why the total keeps moving up.