A Trinity of Thoughtfulness, or: Sometimes there's good poker at $50

[Anacardo]

The following hands took place, in order, against the same oppponent, a 30/20 thinking LAGTAG, on two different tables.

I think each merits some real discussion.

Start talking first and I will backfill my thoughts later.

--Hand One--

Full Tilt Poker
$0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
5 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
UTG: $15.95
CO: $54.75
BTN: $11
SB: $68.5
Hero (BB): $196.6

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 ($0.75, 5 players)
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="red">CO raises to $2.25</font>, BTN folds, SB calls $2, Hero calls $1.75, UTG folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 ($7.25, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $5.50</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $21</font>, SB folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $70.25</font>, CO calls all in for $31.50
Uncalled bet of $17.75 returned to Hero

<font color="black">Turn:</font> 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [A] ($112.25, 2 players)
No action

<font color="black">River:</font> 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 A [K] ($112.25, 2 players)
No action

--Hand Two--

Full Tilt Poker
$0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
4 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
BB: $76.65
UTG: $83.55
BTN: $63.30
Hero (SB): $262.2

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q ($0.75, 4 players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $1.75</font>, BTN folds, Hero calls $1.50, BB folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($4, 2 players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3.50</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $9.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $32.50</font>, UTG folds
Uncalled bet of $23 returned to Hero

--Hand Three--

Full Tilt Poker
$0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
5 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

<font color="black">Stack Sizes</font>
CO: $42.25
Hero (BTN): $50.25
SB: $49.25
BB: $47.85
UTG: $64.15

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> K 6 ($0.75, 5 players)
UTG calls $0.50, CO folds, Hero calls $0.50, SB folds, BB checks

<font color="black">Flop:</font> 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 ($1.75, 3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $1.50</font>, BB calls $1.50, UTG folds

<font color="black">Turn:</font> 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] ($4.75, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3.50</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $13.50</font>, Hero calls $10

<font color="black">River:</font> 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] ($31.75, 2 players)
<font color="red">BB bets all in for $32.85</font>, Hero calls $32.85

[prodonkey]

Hand 1 he's implying a lot of strength with the SB still to act behind him.. I doubt he's doing this with AK so he's got some kind of pair, if i had to put my money on a specific hand I'd prolly say T's.

Hand 2 they try this crap to me all the time.. but I don't give cheap cards for their gutshots or whatever crap they might have. I like the reraise.

Hand 3.. uhm.. I'm not calling the raise on the turn.. I'm reraising if I think I have the best hand which would be about 80% of the time. That is a highly connected board.. and he's bb in an unraised pot so he could have any 2.. you beat 68, 67 and 78 and random bluffs. Would he have just check called with those 2 pair hands though? I'm not so sure.. I'm going to toss those out of his range.. so he's either semi bluffing the flush draw hoping the K is a scare card for you.. or he has you beat, or he has total air which I'd say he would less than 10% of the time. Now that I think about it you're probably going to be behind alot here, but actually playing the hand I prolly still put my money in.

[hemstock]

Man your pf play is not that good....

#1
Great spot to reraise preflop. I'm not sure a donk bet is good on the flop but fold to his raise. You're either slightly ahead or way behind.

#2
A call pf here is way better than calling in the 1st hand in my opinion but still reraising pf is really better. You are OOP and all. Hand plays differently but go for a c/r on the flop don't donk.

#3
Fold pf for once. The turn c/r is the flush draw. I'm seeing this line in unraised pots more and more often lately. I would 4bet and gladly get it in on the turn. He doesn't have a straight, he doesn't have a set... your hand is good

[ama0330]

Hand one preflop is fine, the flop bet is terrible and the push is worse. Id check call and re-eval on the turn or just check fold.

Hand two, you have to 3bet this preflop. As played the rest is fine.

Hand three preflop is okay, bit non standard, but no big deal at a loose table. On the flop you cant bet because so many draws are going to call that reverse implieds are going to get you on later streets when the draws hit. You are push or fold on the turn, you cant just call here, becuase its obvious the rest of his money is going in. You dont beat much on that board so Id just fold.

[eigenvalue]

Hand 1: Fold to his reraise! If he has no pair, it's AsKs. You are never ahead here.

Hand 2: I prefer a check-call here. This would look like I'm sitting on a flush draw and I might be able to win far, far more money with this set than you. If I play that way, I might have to release this strong hand sometimes depending on the turn or river card. But I like to check-call to mislead Villain into the thinking that I'm on a flush or straight draw. This line will earn me several huge bets later if the flush doesn't appear and I guess it gives me far more money in most cases than your line, even if I have to release my hand sometimes, because I let Villain see one or two more cards. Remember, that I will have a boat if the board pairs. If Villain catches a flush or straight in this case, I stack him. Look at the implied odds in that case.

Hand 3: If you call his all-in on the river, why don't you shove the turn after his reraise? It is far better to shove the turn, because half the deck will be a scare card for us on the river.

[dodgybob]

I assume some explanation for hand 1 is coming, because without reads that is spew. Even with reads its probably spew.

[Anacardo]

Let's start with Hand One. By the way, this thread is titled as-is not because of the quality of my play, which is highly debatable on every hand (that's the beauty of it!), but the intricacy of the situation - a single opponent, constantly shifting image, multiple levels of thinking, etc. I almost never come across sequences like this and I'm always really pleased when I do.

Hand one - My reraising range out of the blinds (read: OOP) is quite narrow against aggressive players capable of strong moves. Broadway pairs, AK/AQ, and suited connectors comprise most of it. If he were loose and passive I'd always reraise. If he were tight and passive I'd usually reraise. As it is I don't feel like making a large-ish pot OOP with a hand tailor-made for being outplayed with.

Most of you are slapping your foreheads re: flop action. Okay. Against a random player I would tend to agree. This is not a random player. This is a laggro who will make strong bluffs and semibluffs. Against any of you guys, rockish-tending TAGs for the most part, yes, he has an overpair, 99 or Asxs every time. An LPP fish has much the same range except you can throw in any nine or deuce, which makes it even worse. A maniac would have almost anything. THIS guy, WHEN HE RAISES, has an overpair, 99, any two spades that comprise a decent starting hand, perhaps A2s or K2s, and some marginal 'made' hands that I beat, e.g. AK, 66. "Get the [censored] off of me" type hands. Against that range - help me out, Pokerstovers - I give him a very roughly estimated median of twelve outs. On the other hand, I don't want to call for 40% of my stack and then re-evaluate turn, because I have no idea what his pair outs are. If you call what are you hoping for? any non-broadway non-spade? Put him on broadway spades and there's 21 (I think) cards left in the deck that we want to see on the turn. You automatically give him way the best of it by putting yourself in a position to have to guess. You can call and push any non-spade (8s exception of course, woot!), a far better line IMO; I would say you're now giving him the chance to play perfectly by calling or folding based on whether or not he's improved, but he'd be getting like 2.3:1 to call, so he may feel (and indeed BE) tied on to call no matter what. (Crunch it 'cause I don't know.) Obv. if he has an overpair we're screwed regardless, though I suppose there's some miniscule added fold% for TT-QQ with an aggressive line (yeah, right.)

Keep in mind that 12-out estimate applies when he raises. When he calls my push it gets worse; jack the median up to 14 outs (spades + two overs, 8s dead). This is fine, though; neutral EV with dead money in the pot is a race you take all day.

Obviously my on the spot analysis, as with anyone else, was a little less elaborate. "He's lagtaggro, this is more likely to be a move than with anyone else, and I don't want to have to guess, shove."

Chew on that then I'll post results and talk hand two.

[EMc]

sweet!

cardo,

Im out the door but if I when I comeback if what I feel hasnt been said ill post my thoughts.

[gumpzilla]

Hand 1: Against an unknown, probably spewy. Not sure how likely they are to fold their overpairs, and after you 3-bet you're very rarely going to be coming in as a big favorite - something along the lines of AK with the flush draw is on the low end of what I expect to see and it makes up a small chunk of the range compared to overpairs. If you're not getting them to fold those overpairs, then this is going to be a money loser. EDIT: I'm not paying enough attention. Yes, if this guy is very aggressive then this isn't quite as bad. You're still hurting most of the time when you get called, but in the "I know he knows" game his range might loosen up to snap off what he perceives as likely bluffs from you.

Hand 2: If it were rainbow I might not 3bet the flop. The problem with these kinds of boards is that even AK is probably pretty scared. Nevertheless, the action-killing draws out there make this look fine to me.

Hand 3: The button limp is a little questionable but not horrific. The flop bet looks decent, same for the turn bet. I think 3-betting and calling each have their place; if you call, I think you're going to need to call most rivers. Most likely hands for BB in my opinion are weaker two pairs or combo draws gone bluffy, as of the turn. Not sure what that means about the river bet.

[Guy Incognito]

Hand 1: If you're ahead, it's not likely by much. At the least it's a high-variance play.

Hand 2: Fine, I'm not messing around with that board OOP.

Hand 3: I raise this pre, and I'm fairly nitty (22/17). Confused as to why so many people are folding, but whatever. I might check this flop (?), and that's a great turn card for a LAG to semibluff, I'm either folding or pushing at this point.