QTs in BB, SB pushes

betgo · #1 03-21-2007, 04:22 AM

Right on the final table bubble of $50 single rebuy. Villain is not expected to play tight because of the bubble.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t4000 (5 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP (t67404)
Button (t36740)
SB (t57063)
Hero (t59337)
UTG (t145036)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, SB raises to t56863, Hero ???

TheFoxNL · #2 03-21-2007, 04:26 AM

fold
this seems like a nice hand
but villian could be doing this with QJ KT AT TT JJ
or any other pair
i dont like taking coinflips on the bubble unless im the one with the pocket pair
fold this hand

Cablelessray · #3 03-21-2007, 04:37 AM

yucky... i know you are so temped to call that, as am i, but it's a fold.

i don't think he's tight, but i think his range has you beat. my guess (if he's not tight) 22+/A2+/QJ+/KT+

ImNotSoGood · #4 03-21-2007, 04:40 AM

Why would you call here, is the villain's range that wide that this call can be +EV?

Forget that though. If this was with 12 left, or even 11 left, It would be alright/possibly great depending on how good/experienced your table is. If you win, you basically just told the table, " I am willing to gamble, you better have a hand to raise me", and you will have a much larger stack to apply pressure, as well as a great image for it.

plaid · #5 03-21-2007, 04:45 AM

fold...if for no other reason than to avoid the railbird chatter about you calling off all of your chips with just Q high

TheFoxNL · #6 03-21-2007, 04:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Why would you call here, is the villain's range that wide that this call can be +EV?

Forget that though. If this was with 12 left, or even 11 left, It would be alright/possibly great depending on how good/experienced your table is. If you win, you basically just told the table, " I am willing to gamble, you better have a hand to raise me", and you will have a much larger stack to apply pressure, as well as a great image for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah but problem is villian is willing to gamble as well prob with Ax then your still behind

registrar · #7 03-21-2007, 07:10 AM

I fold there. Calling is probably +cEV but we won't be in bad shape at FT so I'd want a less marginal edge here.

betgo · #8 03-21-2007, 10:25 AM

I called. I need to win 45% of the time for it to be cEV+. I figured villain probably doesn't push real strong hands, so I am probably flipping against an underpair, Ax, or Kx. Villain could be ahead with broadway cards or behind with a suited connector/gapper or semijunk. I think I may be ahead of villain's range.

Maybe because of the tournament situation I shouldn't gamble. Does doubling up less than double my $EV? I know Sklansky might not approve. Of course, if I win the coin flip, it puts me in 2nd or 3rd place in the tournament, and I have a good chance to win the thing.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t4000 (5 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP (t67404)
Button (t36740)
SB (t57063)
Hero (t59337)
UTG (t145036)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, SB raises to t56863, Hero calls t52863.

Flop: (t110526) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

Turn: (t110526) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: (t110526) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: t110526

Results in white below: 
Hero has Qh Th (full house, tens full of kings).
SB has Kh 7s (full house, kings full of tens).
Outcome: SB wins t110526.

4CardStraight · #9 03-21-2007, 10:32 AM

Mathematics of Poker's Jam or Fold table indicates this is a pretty clear call with QTs, Calling is appropriate up to 24BB stack size. I think the fact that you were up against K7s indicates that the original pusher knows he should be pushing pretty wide here. If you can subtract out AA KK QQ and AK because you think he would limp or minraise with those hands then this becomes even more of a call. If villain is tight, and is pushing tight on the bubble, yeah for sure this is a clear muck. If you think tho that this opponent is pushing close to optimal (at his stack size he should probably be pushing 40% of his hands), then a call with QTs should be automatic. As it is your only a 47/53 dog both against his specific hand as well as any range that includes his hand, and theres more than the difference in overlay already in the pot from blinds. Its a +EV call, although your seat and your skill might push this into a fold even then, because it is awefully close, and if you lose your done.

betgo · #10 03-21-2007, 10:37 AM

Villain had K7o not K7s.