Dead Aces

[Trencherman]

7 Card Stud High ($2/$4), Ante $0.25, Bring-In $1 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.88 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls___raises
Seat 6: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises___calls
Seat 8: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (5.38 SB)

Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street - (3.69 BB)

Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks___???
Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets

[Andy B]

I would never limp/raise with a hand this dead. Raise coming in and hope they all fold.

I'd bet fifth. Since you checked, well, do you believe him? He made it two bets on third, which seems more like a big pocket pair than a three-flush. I think you need to press on here.

[Brad1970]

Step on the gas on 3rd & don't let up until somebody runs you off the road or they push you the pot.

[Nina]

I believe in Andy's pocket pair theory. So far the villain only has one pair. The possible flush would keep me from not raising, but I would definitely call.

[Trencherman]

Villain had (7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img])A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], giving him a buried pair + four-flush with 59.8% equity versus Hero's holding. Knowing this, check/call is best, and Villain should be raising a bet if he can be reasonably sure Hero only has split aces. If Villain has only the three-flush, Hero's equity swells to 78.2%. Having aces up versus the pair + four-flush makes Hero a tiny favorite on fifth street. If both players brick on sixth street, Hero becomes a 57.8% favorite. If Villain bricks and Hero makes a four-flush, Hero is about 66.3% to win.

[Voltaire]

Obviously complete the bring-in and keep betting as Brad 1970 so eloquently expresses it "until somebody runs you off the road or they push you the pot."

However your check on Fifth is understandable because his most likely hand is a flush since (1) You haven't seen any diamonds except in his hand; (2) You know he doesn't have aces. The fact that we now know he has a pair of sevens and a four flush of course changes things. Now you can check raise him!

The way you've played it so far it's almost as if you can see his cards. You got an extra bet in on 3rd and you're about to get an extra one in on 5th. Congrats. (Uh...too bad if another diamond falls, but even so you have outs.)

[Trencherman]

[ QUOTE ]
However your check on Fifth is understandable because his most likely hand is a flush since (1) You haven't seen any diamonds except in his hand; (2) You know he doesn't have aces. The fact that we now know he has a pair of sevens and a four flush of course changes things. Now you can check raise him!

The way you've played it so far it's almost as if you can see his cards. You got an extra bet in on 3rd and you're about to get an extra one in on 5th. Congrats. (Uh...too bad if another diamond falls, but even so you have outs.)

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not convinced a check-raise is the best play given Villain's hand. According to Twodimes.net, Hero loses this hand 59.8% of the time when played to showdown. However, I also think Hero can safely fold when Villain catches a diamond or open pair (and Hero bricks) on sixth street. Exactly how much this should impact Hero's aggression on fifth street is an interesting consideration.

[templar999]

[ QUOTE ]

The fact that we now know he has a pair of sevens and a four flush of course changes things. Now you can check raise him!


The way you've played it so far it's almost as if you can
see his cards. You got an extra bet in on 3rd and you're about to get an extra one in on 5th. Congrats. (Uh...too bad if another diamond falls, but even so you have outs.)

[/ QUOTE ]
huh? am i missing something here? you're a dog against a pair and a four flush on fifth street. getting in a double bet on an expensive street should not be high on your list of things to do this hand. in fact it should be about the last thing you want to do. and even if you didnt know what exactly what he had, his bet into your own flush board is a pretty big sign of strength. while i'd be relatively confident i'm ahead at this point, i'd be more worried about what the 6th and 7th street will look like:

1. my aces are entirely dead and the likely best hand i can make is aces up. will i be able to value bet it?
2. what's my line if i dont improve on the river? call and pray with one pair?
3. i'm out of position. any cards that will give me position will probably have helped him (paired board, paint perhaps giving him trips to his high pair in the hole)
4. he's getting big implied odds from me, especially on the river if i don't gain position on 6th.

i think the decision between betting and check/calling is pretty close. there are good arguments for either. given your aggression and your scary board though, i'd think betting is best. the pot's big and you cant give a free card if he doesnt have four flush + pair.

[Voltaire]

You're right. I stand corrected. Those diamonds are powerful.

[Voltaire]

I stand corrected. Thanks.