Betting AK for value

ChulioBarth · #1 03-20-2007, 01:15 PM

Is this a value bet? No special reads on both of them. Seemed pretty fishy.

Cryptologic
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Julezz is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, Julezz raises, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6.5SB, 3 players)
BB checks, Julezz bets, CO calls, BB calls.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4.75BB, 3 players)
BB checks, Julezz bets, CO calls, BB calls.

River: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (7.75BB, 3 players)
BB checks, Julezz ???

Results:
Final pot: 12.75BB

Burnsabre · #2 03-20-2007, 01:25 PM

BB is the most likely canidate for the straight, with no reads I prolly ch/call here or ch/f if its 2 back to me.

Bill Haywood · #3 03-20-2007, 01:41 PM

Since you may get raised, you risk losing two bets on the river, but gain only one more if you win (assuming they raise, you call).

So you need to be considerably more likely to be ahead to justify another bet. Problem is, a flush drawer will fold, netting a river bet nothing for the risk.

There is reason to hope -- straight draws you fear are not very likely hands after pf raise. Likely hands are a weak ace and a flush draw, one of which may pay you off on the river.

A big danger is that someone holds A7, A6, A5, or A4. That leaves just A2, A8, A9, AT as likely hands you want to see. And it's still not impossible for someone to hold 67, 56, 78, or even a set, which all beat you.

In my estimation, the likelihood a bet will gain you nothing, or increase your loss, makes this a check-call on the river. (Check fold if it is bet and check-raised.)

yourface · #4 03-20-2007, 02:09 PM

remove the final pot size as it is indicative of how the river was played out. yes this is a value bet, especially vs fishy villains.

edit: after reading bill's post I think I need to justify my opinion. I am going to put in a bet here anyways, and I expect fishy villains will pay off with their worse aces, underpairs, and maybe even hands like K6 but would not bet them. we can safely fold to a raise.

Genesis · #5 03-20-2007, 02:10 PM

Well it's apparent you got raised since you left the final pot result. At any rate, I would approach this spot based on the ability of my opponents to bluff raise. If they can bluff here then I check call, if not I bet fold. Something that should be obvious to your opponents on the river is that you likely have at least Ax if you bet, so almost any raise should be respected.

colgin · #6 03-20-2007, 02:36 PM

Unless CO is very tricky I bet-fold the river although it is thin with the 4 str8 out there.

If you check CO is almost never betting a hand that you beat. He won't try to bluff two players,particularly on this coordinated a board or feel cmfortbale value betting a worse hand. So, when your hand is good you do not figure to pick up any more bets.

As a corrollary to the above, when CO does bet your hand is rarely good.

You will get calls from worse hands from fishy players on even coordinated board like this.

Add up the foregoing and you can see that if a bet is going to go in on the river you are better off betting than check-calling and hoping to pick off a bluff.

Occassionally this will cost you as a your hand won't be good but the river would have checked through had you just checked, but more frequently you will be putting in a bet when your hand is no good (but not getting one when it is).

This is predicated on my belief that you can safely fold to a raise from CO (particularly if BB then overcalls or three-bets). You don't see too many bluff raises into 2 players even on scary bords. But if CO is very tricky you may want to check-call.

sweetjazz · #7 03-20-2007, 03:12 PM

Seems like an "easy" bet/fold. (At the table, it's easy to convince ourselves to bet/call and check/call, but these are both significantly worse.)

Gurravasa · #8 03-20-2007, 03:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Seems like an "easy" bet/fold. (At the table, it's easy to convince ourselves to bet/call and check/call, but these are both significantly worse.)

[/ QUOTE ]

touche!...

bobhalford · #9 03-20-2007, 04:07 PM

I think BB would bet out on the river with a straight, so that just leaves the CO to worry about. So I wouldn't think twice about betting and folding to a raise.

Gurravasa · #10 03-20-2007, 04:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think BB would bet out on the river with a straight, so that just leaves the CO to worry about. So I wouldn't think twice about betting and folding to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think about calling a raise on a river like this, but I have this reflex that bypasses my brain and twitches my finger and before I know what happened I end up paying of on the river again... [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]