2/4 KJs, questionable on all streets

henkeee · #1 02-13-2006, 08:32 PM

I played this different from what I use to and I really don't know what I should have done on any of the streets, so teach me!

UTG+1: 74/9/0.94 after 57 hands. He goes to showdown about 35 % of the time and I havn't seen him get really aggressive with a weak holding, but I havn't been paying attention either.
MP3: 12/4/? . No read

Cryptologic
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, Hero raises, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls.

This is early for me to raise KJs, but the 3 guys to my left seems overly tight so I might get it HU.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7.5SB, 3 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, MP3 folds, UTG+1 re-raises, Hero calls.

I'm trying to buy some outs, but that's something I don't usually do. I don't know if this is a good spot?

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6.75BB, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 re-raises, Hero calls.

??

River: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (12.75BB, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

This confuses me, but I couldn't find a value bet.

Results:
Final pot: 12.75BB

W. Deranged · #2 02-13-2006, 08:42 PM

1. Pre-flop is standard. KJs is a raise at any position at the table if you are confident in your post-flop play.

2. I'm not sure I like the flop raise all that much. If UTG+1 is loose but doesn't get out of line a ton, his bet will often mean something, and then we're putting in 2 bets in an 8 bet pot draw to like 7 outs or whatever and without much fold equity. Primary reasons to like the raise would be outs-clearing or the ability to take a free card, but I'm not convinced that either of those are all that valuable here. In a three-way pot, the outs-clearing effect tends to be much more dimished than it would be in, say, a five-way pot since its much less likely anyone is sharing any cards with you.

Overall, I just don't see enough reason to want to pitch an extra bet in on the flop. The pot is big enough for me to want to peel, though, so I like simply calling and taking one card off.

3. This is the important part: You should only be raising this turn if you can confidently fold to a three-bet.

Realize that the two bets you throw in to raise are the same two bets that could get you to showdown. In a heads-up pot, there are no tactical or protection considerations. Our opponent is not going to fold a better hand here ever, I would imagine. If we're raising it's purely for value and in order for there to be value in this raise we have to know for sure we're not going to spew 4 BB when behind. Realize that otherwise we are risking 2 BB to gain 1 BB extra in value.

BostonMetro · #3 02-13-2006, 08:45 PM

I like this entire hand. I think you absolutely have to raise the flop. I mean, you might have the best hand with king high, who knows? I was 100% sure the guy had a set when he c/r'ed the turn, but you can probably bet the river when he slows down, since he is so loose passive. He will probably call a lot with A8 when beat here and won't CR that often since he's led out on every street so far - why expect you to bet in behind?

W. Deranged · #4 02-13-2006, 08:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think you absolutely have to raise the flop. I mean, you might have the best hand with king high, who knows?

[/ QUOTE ]

I urge you to think about this statement with some more sophistication. How often do we actually have the best hand here? Our opponent is loose but probably average aggressiveness at best, and he's betting out of position into multiple opponents including the pre-flop raiser, on a board without many draws in play. Much of the time that he is betting no pair he will have an A and we'll be behind anyway. I personally doubt we're ahead more than 10% of the time here, and that's a generous number in my opinion.

BostonMetro · #5 02-13-2006, 08:49 PM

Can't the flop raise buy you a free river in addition to clearing outs? Just curious. I routinely make this continuation raise and wonder if i'm spewing. I often will check behind on the turn if I miss - is this incorrect?

W. Deranged · #6 02-13-2006, 08:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Can't the flop raise buy you a free river in addition to clearing outs? Just curious. I routinely make this continuation raise and wonder if i'm spewing. I often will check behind on the turn if I miss - is this incorrect?

[/ QUOTE ]

Certainly, these are all things we should consider. An important thing to remember though is that raising as a continuation raise/raising for a free card really only make sense our hand is strong enough and the pot is big enough to merit doing so. If we need to improve to win most of the time we need to make sure that we have enough equity on average to merit taking an aggressive line, and whether what is gained by taking an aggressive line outweighs the extra cost of the bet.

Curtrosity · #7 02-13-2006, 09:03 PM

How aggro is .94 with that vpip? I think I am calling the flop. I raise the turn, if I get 3 bet I am probably calling down. Not sure about the river, but is he showing us something like 66-77 here?

bobhalford · #8 02-13-2006, 09:09 PM

On the flop, it looks like we are against a set. On the turn, you make your hand, but I would just call here. If he has a set or 2-pair (43 is not out of the question for a 79% vpip) he's probably going to 3-bet you.

henkeee · #9 02-13-2006, 09:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
1. Pre-flop is standard. KJs is a raise at any position at the table if you are confident in your post-flop play.

2. I'm not sure I like the flop raise all that much. If UTG+1 is loose but doesn't get out of line a ton, his bet will often mean something, and then we're putting in 2 bets in an 8 bet pot draw to like 7 outs or whatever and without much fold equity. Primary reasons to like the raise would be outs-clearing or the ability to take a free card, but I'm not convinced that either of those are all that valuable here. In a three-way pot, the outs-clearing effect tends to be much more dimished than it would be in, say, a five-way pot since its much less likely anyone is sharing any cards with you.

Overall, I just don't see enough reason to want to pitch an extra bet in on the flop. The pot is big enough for me to want to peel, though, so I like simply calling and taking one card off.

3. This is the important part: You should only be raising this turn if you can confidently fold to a three-bet.

Realize that the two bets you throw in to raise are the same two bets that could get you to showdown. In a heads-up pot, there are no tactical or protection considerations. Our opponent is not going to fold a better hand here ever, I would imagine. If we're raising it's purely for value and in order for there to be value in this raise we have to know for sure we're not going to spew 4 BB when behind. Realize that otherwise we are risking 2 BB to gain 1 BB extra in value.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did think that Villain had hit the flop in some way, but raised to hopefully get the cold caller out and then be able to take a free card on the turn, but it backfired. The problem is that I don't know when it's a good spot to clear outs, so I had to post it once I had given it a try. I guess I have to watch out for a good example of outsclearing..

On the turn I usually call. And it sure felt like I should've folded to the turn raise when I wrote the post, but I couldn't give Villain credit for a set (and I'm not saying he had one).

henkeee · #10 02-13-2006, 09:20 PM

I have to go to bed. Villains hand for anyone who is interested:

Results:
Final pot: 12.75BB
UTG+1 shows 4c 3s
Hero mucked Kc Jc