.02/.05 PLO/8 top set vs. flush draw

[You're No Daisy]

I'm pretty new to Omaha/8 but understand the game to the point where I'm not thinking about my cards, but instead thinking about what my opponents have. I wish I had the bankroll to play higher limits, but my financial situation is aweful with working at Ford Motor Company and my wife staying at home with the kids [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]. Anyway, I'm trying to improve my game so I can slowly move up, bankroll management, etc. Should I have played this hand differently? Was I too aggressive? Constructive criticism is more than welcome. I'm still steaming from this hand. In general, I never post villain's hand, but would it help to know what villain had?

I'm assuming villain is on a flush draw here and maybe an OESD. Worst case scenario is he's on both. If he is, is there really anything I can do here? How can I lay down top set on the flop? I'm already pot committed on the turn so I put the rest of my stack in thinking if villain only has A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] with garbage that his duece just counterfeited. Is my thinking at least rational here? Maybe I played this hand like a donk? That's why I need you guys. I feel aweful about things right now because I got stacked twice tonight, once when I floped the nut flush with a draw to the nut low and potted the flop and turn...getting called all the way to the river only to have the board pair giving villain a full house. The second time, well read on...

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha/8, $0.05 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($6)
Hero ($6.91)
UTG+1 ($11.13)
MP1 ($3.37)
MP2 ($6.82)
MP3 ($6.67)
CO ($4.28)
Button ($5.58)
SB ($5.90)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.17</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls $0.17, MP2 calls $0.17, MP3 calls $0.17, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>.

Flop: ($0.75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $0.75</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to $1.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $5.25</font>, MP3 calls $3.75.

Turn: ($11.25) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.49 (All-In)</font>, MP3 calls $1.25 (All-In).

River: ($13.99) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $13.99

[Jim T]

I'm a pretty new to Omaha myself, but that looks terrible to me. If you were playing Omaha high that would be one thing, but high/low??? You may have to dodge clubs AND low cards. After the turn you might be drawing slim to get half the pot.

I would check/call the flop. On a good turn (a red jack, for example) I check raise. As is, I check/fold on the turn after investing as little as possible on the flop.

[Mercyful]

Check/call is too weak IMO.

Bet/call is better.

Bet/raise is overly aggressive, you have no low.

[Bad Beat Jason]

I think the biggest issue here is that you overplayed your hand. It was a one-way hand, out-of-position against three opponents. One of the opponents made it clear that he hit the flop pretty well.

On the flop, i check/call and sometimes check/fold this depending how heavy the betting gets. I want to see a turn card very cheaply. You had the nuts on the flop, but you had very little in the way of redraws. The flop was very coordinated with flush, straight, and low draws all in play. This flop and your hand looks like one of those situations where you win a little or lose a lot.

Ther fact that he raised your flop bet would be a big signal to me that he has very good draws for both the high and the low and wants to get all the money in the pot that he can.

Top sets can be a real pain in the ass in this game. Next time have some kind of back-up draw to fall back on.

[Truthiness24]

Concur. The real problem is that you think you're ahead with that top set and you're totally not because you have no low and a flush, straight, or low, or all of them together, are drawing against you. Basically, you have 10 outs to the nuts, and just about everything else helps your opponent. I'd be curious to see what MP3 had and to run the numbers from the flop.

You would want to check and take the free card to see where you're at, but you're OOP so you can't. Check/call the flop, check/fold the turn. It seems mousey but it's the only play IMO.

[bbartlog]

Check/call is too weak. If you're going to do that then don't bother playing this hand in the first place. Bet/call is the right move - you will fold some hands that you don't want to give a free card to. A reraise on the other hand is bad in part because it leaves you with nothing behind on the turn to bet big if no flush or low comes.
I also think the preflop raise is a mistake - bad position, speculative hand. Better to limp this, or maybe raise it some fraction of the time if playing against strong opponents.
By way of example, we can compare the EV of the two strategies (reraise versus just calling the raise) against a hypothetical opponent hand.
Suppose opponent has A23T suited in clubs. You are a 57/43 dog against this holding. Getting it all in on the flop (which you effectively did), you're committing $5.75 (after your initial bet) to get $6.04 back. EV is +$0.29.
Suppose instead that you call the flop raise and

- check/fold if clubs fall
- check/fold if any low card that enables a straight falls (everything except aces)
- check/call if a non-club ace falls
- bet out on all other cards

Calling the flop raise commits an additional $0.75.

22/41 times, you fold on the turn. (-0.40)
2/41 times, you call a $3.75 turn bet as a 64/36 dog (an ace comes on the turn) (-0.02)
7/41 times, opponent folds to your turn bet as the board pairs (you gain $3.75). (+0.51)
10/41 times, opponent calls a $3.75 bet as a 59/41 dog (+0.52)

Here your total EV is +$0.61 (though you have to make some assumptions about river play as well). This despite (or perhaps because of, depending on your perspective) the fact that you end up folding on the turn over half of the time.

If you could arrange the pot size any way you wanted, you'd probably want to be able to (just barely) get it all in on the turn, since you are more likely than your opponent to make a mistake on the river. But in this hand you don't have the option of sizing the pot any better than just calling the raise on the flop.

[Jim T]

I'm not sure your figures are right. I'm sure you'll let me know if I screwed mine up instead.

Let's compare check/call to bet/call versus simply folding the flop:

Bet/call:
22/41 times you fold turn(-1.50)=-.80
2/41 times non-club ace. I think you end up calling all your money off on the river here the vast majority of the time as a big underdog, when you would be able to find a fold in a smaller pot. (6.50 as 64/36 dog) =-.07. Let's say you find a fold a few times and it's really only= -.05
7/41 times opponent folds, gain (3.75 pot-1.50 invested=2.25) = +.38
10/41 times (11.25*.59-3.75-1.50)=+.34

EV= -.13

Check/call:
22/41 times fold the turn =-.40
2/41 times fold turn=-.04
7/41 times opponent folds turn (gain 2.25-.75=1.50)=+.26
10/41 times opponent calls 2.25 bet as 59/41 dog = +.18

EV =0

This assumes that opponent does what he's supposed to, but given this is .02/.05 you might be forgiven for thinking that you could benefit from their errors on turn/river enough to make much more money.

PS I think that a check/call might induce an over-call or two on the flop from MP1 or MP2, and in this case I don't think that's a bad thing. The only time you're not done with the hand on the turn is after a pair or a blank anyway. Either you win an additional .75 with everyone folding or you get a lot of money in as a big favorite.

[bbartlog]

Yes, if you know that opponent has A23T in clubs, then check/call is superior to bet/call. However, checking is bad because there are many hands that we should be able to force to fold that may otherwise outdraw us - high card flush draws, 78xx, even a hand like A47T (no clubs) should fold to a big bet but might beat us if given a free card. In any case, we don't know that we're up against A23T or something analogous until we get raised, so making decisions as if we were doesn't make sense to me. Which is why I only compared bet/call and bet/reraise.
Your numbers are different from mine because I treat the initial bet (0.75) as a sunk cost while you include it in the calculations.
As for getting overcalls on the flop, you need someone to bet for you in order for that to happen, and there's no guarantee of that. You can also cross 3 more cards (the non-club 9s) off your list of safe turn cards if you play it that passively.
Anyway, having said all that, the hand might play out well for you if you could get multiple callers on the flop and then jam the turn. Odds of a favorable turn card are still one in three, after all.

[You're No Daisy]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be curious to see what MP3 had and to run the numbers from the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain had 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] so go ahead and run the numbers.

[You're No Daisy]

I ran the odds calculator on CardPlayer.com and now that I'm in an objective frame of mind, I [censored] hate the way I played this hand...but at the same time what do I do on the turn if I know I can only split the pot. This seems like an easy laydown, but seems weak at the same time. I think I probably should have bet/called the flop and checked the turn. Here's what the odds say:

Preflop:
Hero:
A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Scoop: 35.14%
Hi:60.83%
Lo: 0.00%
EE: 0.480

Villain:
4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Scoop: 39.17%
Hi: 39.17%
Lo: 58.37%
EE: 0.520

Flop:
Hero:
Scoop: 20.73%
Hi: 57.93%
Lo: 0.00%
EE: 0.393

Villain:
Scoop: 42.07%
Hi: 42.07%
Lo: 74.39%
EE: 0.607

Turn:
Hero:

Scoop: 0%
Hi: 67.50%
Lo: 0.00%
EE: 0.338

Villain:
Scoop: 32.50%
Hi: 32.50%
Lo: 100.00%
EE: 0.662

This was a tough hand, but in hindsight I probably should have check/folded the turn.