300/600 Antonius vs Durrr -> Question

[FiSheYe]

I've seen this hand posted from Railbirds and couldn't understand the thought process of Durrr. As analyse I would think this hand is misplayed but I don't know about the pace/metagaming of this Headsup so I won't say it's horrible. Just curious what other good Highstake players think about it.


Full Tilt Poker Game #2005600541: Table Halbert (heads up) - $300/$600 - No Limit Hold'em - 1:46:35 ET - 2007/03/17
Seat 1: Luigi66369 ($120,899.25)
Seat 2: durrrr ($60,899.75)
Luigi66369 posts the small blind of $300
durrrr posts the big blind of $600
The button is in seat #1

Holecards
Luigi66369 has 15 seconds left to act
Luigi66369 raises to $1,800
durrrr raises to $6,500
Luigi66369 has 15 seconds left to act
Luigi66369 calls $4,700

Flop (Pot : $12)

Td2s7h
durrrr bets $10,300
Luigi66369 has 15 seconds left to act
Luigi66369 raises to $114,399.25, and is all in
durrrr calls $44,099.75, and is all in
Luigi66369 shows Tc8c
durrrr shows QdAd
Uncalled bet of $59,999.50 returned to Luigi66369

Turn (Pot : $240)

Td2s7hKc

River (Pot : $240)

Td2s7hKc4s
Luigi66369 shows a pair of Tens
durrrr shows Ace King high
Luigi66369 wins the pot ($121,799) with a pair of Tens
durrrr adds $60,000

Summary
Total pot $121,799.50 | Rake $0.50
Board: Td2s7hKc4s
Seat 1: Luigi66369 (small blind) showed Tc8c and won ($121,799) with a pair of Tens
Seat 2: durrrr (big blind) showed QdAd and lost with Ace King high


What can Durrr put Antonius on that would make a call better than a fold ?
As far as I analysed the pot lays about 77,7k to 44,1k for Durrr which is ~1,76:1; against Antonius specific hand his equity is only 28/72
I tried around with some ranges but he needs to read Antonius to be bluffing/semibluffing A HUGE amount of the time to make this call anywhere close to breakeven/slightly +EV..
I mean I saw awesome calls from Durrr before but is this one simply too read dependent to analyse it? I mean even AK as a bluff has him crushed badly.. There are so few hands he is ahead off and way to few coinflips...

Anyone good or Durrr himself can say something about it? We're all humans and I am not intending to blame Durrr for a bad hand just wanna improve my own game and if there is a good reason to make this call maybe even on a more regular basis, I would love to hear it.
Thanks

[Eagles]

He made a bad read or thought he had a fd.

[FiSheYe]

There are no FD and only one SD (98s) which leaves only Gutshots, Air or 98s out there..
I mean Durrr stated that he trusts his reads a lot and I think he has shown very good calls in the past. Might have been a big misread but I am just curious because your read needs to be very accurate to make this call worthwile.. There is not too much FE if Antonius pushes AI with pure bluffs because Durrr will call with a lot of hands and tends to make very thin calls anyways... Assuming all this together I would like a fold way more..

I mean who of the good players here would make that call anyways? You need to read your opponent on air so often would be sick with the given odds.

[AlcateL]

I can only assume he felt antonius had a weak ace preflop or was positive antonius was going to c/r him all in with any two on that flop at that moment.

[ActionJeff]

there was another hand like this at 200-400 6m

Durr raises sb to 1200. PA 3 bets in bb to 3600. For those not familiar PA almost never folds to the sb raise but generally is not very aggresive with 3 betting. Durr makes a baby 4 bet to 9300 and PA calls. The flop comes 1064 (I think) and Durr bets about 2/3 pot. Patrik shoves for 30k on top and Durr calls with 77. Patrik has AK and Durr holds.

Very weird hand, and very interesting.

[restrikt]

A few things to think about...

Durrrr bets the flop this situation like everytime.... Antonius knows this, and so his pushing range is fairly wide... and Durrrr knows this as well...

I agree that the call is marginal at best... but Durrrr knows Antonius' tendencies way better than all of us, and he generally makes very very good calls.

[FiSheYe]

I know that, but from a Equity perspective he needs a super good read because there are super many hands ahead and very few behind. Even AK...Any PP..
If David Benyamine would have done that you guys would have said he is spewing again ^^

[KRANTZ]

a call like this doesn't have to be profitable immediately to be profitable

[FiSheYe]

Sure but I would agree more with that if he had AK or something.. with this read he could have called AJ, KQ with almost the same reasoning... I think he would have folded those.. I wouldn't be curious half as much if he would have called with AK.. AQ seems to be -ev calling here and the "longterm" stuff shouldn't be overrated in this spot. He can still call with AK with much less risk

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]
Sure but I would agree more with that if he had AK or something.. with this read he could have called AJ, KQ with almost the same reasoning... I think he would have folded those.. I wouldn't be curious half as much if he would have called with AK.. AQ seems to be -ev calling here and the "longterm" stuff shouldn't be overrated in this spot. He can still call with AK with much less risk

[/ QUOTE ]

AJ is pretty much equal to AQ and AK. There's little chance PA has a big ace given the preflop action, so they're all pretty similar in value. AJ is possibly even better than AQ since you've got key running straight outs.

KQ is significantly worse than those ace-high hands since some of PA's bluffing range is ace-high, and he might win by accident unimproved.