TPTK, too deep to call, right? 50NL

Jouster777 · #1 03-17-2007, 02:02 AM

Villain is 23/15/4 and seems decent. Despite being fairly deep we've tangled over several largish pots and only shown quality.
I'm pretty sure I can't call this with only one pair but if anyone disagrees I'd like to hear why. My main question is how often is villain bluffing after being induced by the turn check? Flop bet big enough on a dry board? Everyone like the turn check? Everyone hate the river bet?(yeah, me too) 

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

Button ($33.70)
SB ($10.40)
BB ($20)
UTG ($78.15)
Hero ($128.25)
CO ($49.55)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG raises to $2, Hero raises to $6, 4 folds, UTG calls $4.

Flop: ($12.75) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $7, UTG calls $7.

Turn: ($26.75) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: ($26.75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $6, UTG raises to $65.15, Hero??

Final Pot: $97.90

Results in white below: 
UTG doesn't show.
Outcome: UTG wins $97.90.

prodonkey · #2 03-17-2007, 02:46 AM

Why bet $6 on the river? I feel this pot's big decision should be on the turn.. I'd bet something like 18-pot on the turn and be willing to stack since you picked up the nut flush draw.. If he calls the turn I check behind on the river and am usually willing to call a reasonable bet.

IF I do check the turn behind him.. I'm not betting $6 on the river.. I'd probably just check behind

Piece of Cake · #3 03-17-2007, 04:22 AM

That flop bet seems low. I cbet higher in general though.

I bet 10-11 flop. 20-25 into 35 on turn (and call a push). If heart comes on river I push obv and if not I check behind.

As played with checked turn, I bet 14-18 river and fold to push.

All of this may be wrong.

Brian O'Nolan · #4 03-17-2007, 04:57 AM

No, I don't like the turn check after you pick up the nut flush draw. At that point I think you have to pot the turn and be willing to felt it. It seems like a very strange line for villain... wtf can you put him on? 76? 66? I would consider calling because this sure looks like air- if you feel like you have a good enough read on him that he wouldn't peel that flop to bluff you off the hand later and could get to the river with 45 or something, as your line looks a lot like AK.

rakes.a.beach · #5 03-17-2007, 05:07 AM

I normally bet more on the flop too. And turn is def a bet cuz you want to build a pot.

River should be a bigger bet too. You have to bet river for value... but his check/call check/check check/raise all in line looks fishy too. I think it's a lot clearly if you bet like 20 on the river.

Panic__NL · #6 03-17-2007, 05:56 AM

I agree with all other posters, bigger bet on flop, your hand improves on the turn, so bet, and as played this bet is so weak on the river, you ahve no idea why he is pushing here.

Jouster777 · #7 03-17-2007, 09:57 AM

I agree I should bet more on the flop. Doesn't need to be full psb since its dry but more definitely - ~$9 I'd say.

I disagree with those saying bet turn. The main draw out there gives us the nuts and there's no reason for villain to believe we hit a BD flush. This allows pot control when I don't need to protect. Why am I trying to felt this with a single pair? If villain calls a big turn bet I am likely a 4:1 dog.

River bet is just horrible. Nothing more to say about that.

Go_BroKe · #8 03-17-2007, 10:14 AM

why don't we take a free card on the Turn instead of betting it?
We don't need much Protection here, because WE are the "drawer".

I also think that we don't get a lot of value from weaker holdings. Only a weak Ace will call our Turn bet.

I would also check this turn and in your situation I would valuebet the River like 15$.

PwnSauce · #9 03-18-2007, 02:36 AM

It's possible he's making a play here and has trash. Your river value bet was too small. Turn check + riv small value bet probably induced river bluff by him.

Turn check is strange imo, what are you putting him on by turn to make you check it here? Since you're both deep he may have called a bit looser, even if he didn't he can have any pocket pair/AK/AQs/AJs maybe even some worse suited hands. So you may get some worse hands calling, depends on your read of the guy. If you think you are beat, check turn and check behind river.

BobAllinSki · #10 03-18-2007, 08:42 AM

Bet the turn most of the time, you dont want to reach the river with 2 * pot left to play, you want it nice and easy to get it all in if you hit and take a free showdown when you miss.

Never re-open the betting with medium strength hand for such a small gain, either bet an amount that makes the risk of getting raised off your hand worth it, or just check it down.