Q2o in BB flops TP

[Todd]

UTG 11/2/4 over ~30 to this point. Didnt know what to do, so I chose a passive ck call approach (hoping) he was attacking my blind. Mostly, I know that I will raise on the flop with a lot wider range than TPGK....

It this horrible, or reasonable?


Poker Stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB calls, Hero checks.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4SB, 4 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: 8BB

[fretelöo]

Looks good.

He might be raising with A7 or some such, but that'd also require a read on his part.

I think this is exactly the right balance.

[Big Folder]

I dont know if this is WA/WB, its not like he's raising here with Ace-high or mid-pair. In this small pot I lay down the turn.

[fretelöo]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont know if this is WA/WB, its not like he's raising here with Ace-high or mid-pair. In this small pot I lay down the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you think he raised the flop with KT? Or improved to K7 2pr having limped with it UTG?

He's tight pf, but he's also extremely aggro. He'd not raise 88 or 99, but he'd sure as hell raise this flop with it. Else, you don't get an AF of 4.

Without a read, I'm not folding TP.

[Todd]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont know if this is WA/WB, its not like he's raising here with Ace-high or mid-pair. In this small pot I lay down the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the key question, how often does a random villain raise a BB bet with &lt;Q/Q?

Pro: villain is quite agro, even over ~40 hands
Protect a hand by making it 2 bets for the other 2 behind

Anti: There ARE two runners behind
The table was a new one, only 20 hands, and no real reads on most others

[Entity]

I gotta be honest, if you have any faith in your stats whatsoever the flop is very close to an outright fold. Your read is very limited but when a player is 11/2 over 30 hands that means they aren't playing many pots, which means they're being selective with the hands they're playing. There are no real draws on the flop (65s is it) and given his current stats he doesn't have 65s.

At best you've got 5 outs vs AA/KK in a very small pot, more often you have 3 outs vs AQ/KQ, and still often you have 0 outs vs a set. Muckitlikeitshot.

Rob

[Shillx]

I'd fold the flop

[Big Folder]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I dont know if this is WA/WB, its not like he's raising here with Ace-high or mid-pair. In this small pot I lay down the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you think he raised the flop with KT? Or improved to K7 2pr having limped with it UTG?

He's tight pf, but he's also extremely aggro. He'd not raise 88 or 99, but he'd sure as hell raise this flop with it. Else, you don't get an AF of 4.

Without a read, I'm not folding TP.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well over 30 we really don't have much of a read on him. An AF of 4 is very high, but he hasn't seen many flops (11VP$IP) and he could be very aggressive when he does. Considering 11% VP$IP means he's played about 3 hands, I wouldn't start saying he's mega aggressive and will raise here with mid-pair or underpair.

If we assume that read is accurate given the stats, he's tight-passive preflop he could limp with AQ,KQ,QJ,QTs. He could also limp with 99-77.

I think he raised the flop with TP which means he has a better kicker than us. I dont know many TPP preflop who turn into TAGs postflop. I think that 4 AF is an anomaly.

In addition this pot is so small, I see the turn and if I don't improve I fold.

[Todd]

[ QUOTE ]
I gotta be honest... Muckitlikeitshot.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

Honest is good, and it is the reason why I try to post the hands that I may get the most abuse for, since that provides the best opportunity to learn.

Plus, this is a situation that occurs a lot, TPnK OOP against an agro raiser.

You are right about the low VPIP, but of course, that is just as likely to be skewed by the low hand count as well.

I guess I tend to assume that AF is more relevent over a small hand sample, since it speaks to the hand that he did play, nad how he played them.

T

[Big Folder]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I gotta be honest... Muckitlikeitshot.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

Honest is good, and it is the reason why I try to post the hands that I may get the most abuse for, since that provides the best opportunity to learn.

Plus, this is a situation that occurs a lot, TPnK OOP against an agro raiser.

You are right about the low VPIP, but of course, that is just as likely to be skewed by the low hand count as well.

I guess I tend to assume that AF is more relevent over a small hand sample, since it speaks to the hand that he did play, nad how he played them.

T

[/ QUOTE ]

the AF is not really much of an indicator with an 11% VP$IP. With 40 hands it means he's seen the flop 4 times and it could be with premium hands so he's going to be doing a lot of raising anyways. If he flopped a set two times and floped nothing the third time, his aggression factor will be very high because he was raising/betting a lot and folding the other time.