Live 6-12 at Canterbury- River Action?

[One Outer]

Villain in this hand is typically loose passive. He has been playing tons of hands and he's been hitting them all night. He's the type of player that will call the flop with nothing trying to hit a draw on the turn. He's got at least a grand in front of him and I haven't lost a pot I've been in with him yet. At this point I think UTG+1 is a smart LAG and I have seen him limp with weird suited connectors up front.

Hero is MP1 w/ A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

UTG (Villain) calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, 2 folds, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villain checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, 3 folds, Villain calls, UTG+1 calls

Turn: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, Villain calls (???), UTG+1 folds

River: T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain checks, Hero ???

[zuluking]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain checks, Hero ???

[/ QUOTE ]

Bets.

[PorkchopDJG]

Check and get the cheap showdown.
To cold call that turn two bet he is most likely to have picked up a flush draw, have a big overpair or have a 3.
You are most likely beat here but the way C-Bury runs who knows for sure.

[JJH3984]

raise preflop. bet the river.

J

[Bob T.]

Ok, I'm going back to the archives here, what Dynasty told me about 6 years ago.

"If you bet, and call a raise, you will be way ahead of anyone who checks the scare card here."

Now, you don't have to call all the raises, and you already put this guy on a flush draw, but there isn't anything that says that he cant have been playing QJ or KJ all along and is going to pay you off here either. I wouldn't have played those hands that way, and you probably wouldn't have, but maybe he did, and it is perfectly likely that some CP 6-12 guy is going to have played it that way.

Bet, call a raise, file the results for future information.

[Bob T.]

[ QUOTE ]
raise preflop. bet the river.



[/ QUOTE ]

Damn, I missed the limp preflop. Raise preflop, bet the river.

[One Outer]

Thank you, Bob. Clearly I think I may have made an error here.

My concern wasn't a raise. If he is just calling on the turn I think he is passive enough to just call even if he did make clubs. My concern is that I might be betting in a spot where I'm not ahead very often at all.

[James.]

raise pf. you show an immediate profit.

on the river i would bet. if he's passive i would fold to a checkraise.

[PorkchopDJG]

Did you win the hand?
What did villian have?

[One Outer]

I'm hoping maybe I can get some more explanation on where everyone is coming from on their responses.

I agree about the preflop raise. I was running bad and I let it affect my aggressiveness.

The river though I don't think is so clear cut. At the time, and still, my thinking is that if he's calling two cold on that board he is most likely to have some sort of straight draw with clubs, clubs with an overcard, a weak 3 or, and I think this is the most remote possiblity, a worse Jack. When the T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] hits the river I'm, IMO, only beating two hands, KJ and QJ. He hit his flush, already has a 3 or paired his kicker with the JT. Another possiblity that I hadn't considered at the time mentioned by PorkchopDJG was a badly slowplayed over pair like QQ. Also, in case I'm wrong and he did just call with a 45 for the straight draw there is no value in betting.

That's my rationale for disagreeing with the consensus so far. If somebody could make a case with the numbers...?