AQo - bet the river?

bwana devil · #1 03-15-2007, 11:55 AM

villain is 16% vpip but plays very passively and loosely post flop. is betting the river spewing? is there much value in a bet here?

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, CO calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets, CO calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets, CO calls.

River: (6.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO checks, Hero?

jba · #2 03-15-2007, 11:58 AM

sounds like he sucks? I'd bet it.

cdlarmore · #3 03-15-2007, 12:00 PM

bet fold to a raise, he could have 99-jj and i wouldnt be suprised, i think he pays you off to....
nh

Oink · #4 03-15-2007, 12:24 PM

Hands that will pay you off:

AJ(9 combos), 99-TT(12 combos), JT(12) and QT(8). That is 41 all in all.

Hands that will likely either raise or call costing you 1 bet:

AT(12), AK(9), KQ(6) and KJ (9). That is 36 combos and then there is the more unlikely holdings of sets and QJ.

Finally there is the slim chance that villain is bluff raising you of the best hand.

Maybe I am overlooking some worse hands that would call, but it seems like Hero is getting close to 50/50 on a bet, so checking cant be that horrible.

jba · #5 03-15-2007, 12:27 PM

oink you need to discount that AT because of his flop call.

Oink · #6 03-15-2007, 12:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
oink you need to discount that AT because of his flop call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ya missed that and he is prolly calling even worse hands than the ones I mentioned. Still, I think hero should be more careful with his value betting when a 3'rd broadway comes in.