how's this - esp river?

martybonus · #1 03-14-2007, 12:57 PM

I didn't know how to feel about this.

No reads on villain, it's his first hand. I played this hand and the next consecutive one pretty much HU against him. I'll post that one too.

In both cases I didn't quite know what to make of his behaviour. I also wasn't convinced I handled this right.

Table is typical party rock garden. I took down at least 2 pots with UTG PFRs. Alot of weak-tights with a couple of loose-passives. Not getting enough callers to play most speculative hands.

Party Poker 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 4 folds, BB calls.

In retrospect, a bit dicey as a PFR OOP, but as I said, PFRs are taking pots down uncontested all over the place.

Flop: (6.40 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls, BB folds.

Turn: (4.20 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls.

River: (6.20 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP2 raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.20 BB

I feel a bit MUBS-y after this. Would he really have only called the flop and turn if he had a set? If he'd raised me at any point I might have more justification in fearing a boat here, but as it was played this was definitely a trip to 3-town.

what do you all think?

Grease · #2 03-14-2007, 12:59 PM

Your play=MUBS.

3-bet and gleefully call a cap.

Daniel Magix · #3 03-14-2007, 01:03 PM

I'm probably too weak-tight overall, but I would still 3bet this river.

BigBadBabar · #4 03-14-2007, 01:16 PM

jesus christ, 3 bet/cap the river.

martybonus · #5 03-14-2007, 01:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
jesus christ

[/ QUOTE ]

just marty will do, but thanks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

neeeel · #6 03-14-2007, 01:30 PM

i guess im the only one to think that a boat is a distinct possibility here? he cold called a preflop raise, a lot of ppl do that with pocket pairs, he slow played the flop, then got worried when the flush card hit so decided to call down, and hit his boat on the river

bozlax · #7 03-14-2007, 01:31 PM

This is actually more likely to be a worse flush than a boat, y'know. It's more likely to be a straight with 64 for that matter. Stop being a baby.

ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S · #8 03-14-2007, 01:40 PM

easy 3bet/cap

if he had 2pair/set you would have known about it already.

martybonus · #9 03-14-2007, 01:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is actually more likely to be a worse flush than a boat, y'know. It's more likely to be a straight with 64 for that matter. Stop being a baby.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, you're right. and even if it were a boat, that's just variance.

how often does a flush lose to a boat anyway?

This actually informs me about a part of my psychology of poker I'd not thought about before.

that is, missing out on 2BB which I could have made here is well worth it to me if it prevents me from going nuts when villain is in fact holding the boat. missing the 2BB here (and in other hands) doesn't make me sick because 'oh well next time he'll have the boat.'

This is obviously bad poker thinking. I just never had a chance to articulate it before.

MUBS protects from fundamental theorem errors, but it causes them as well.

And boz, I'm guessing it causes more errors than it prevents, that sound right? That is, by ignoring MUBS I'm going to win that 2BB so many more times than I lose it...

MUBS is sorta pot-oriented too, isn't it? the pot's already lost or won, but MUBS tries to minimize the impact. really we should be looking at the 2BB difference between me capping and me calling, huh?

Donkey Kong · #10 03-14-2007, 01:46 PM

Very MUBSy
You need to 3-bet this river and call a cap. If he hit his boat, congrats to him for playing his hand like a total gimp.