Close decision or not?

[woodguy]

Hello All,

UB $120 Bountry

BB=300/150 Ante 25 -10 Handed

Me = 13300
SB = 2150
BB = 8000

BB is gb2005. Has a 95% ROI on UB. He has been playing solid TAG type game. He is a winning player across all sites.

I don't play enough to have a rep, but if he checks the db I have a 53% ROI on UB. I have over 200 hands with him on UB in my PT, so he may have notes on me.

I haven't been over active. I'm 22/17 at this point, which is about standard. Shown down good hands.

Folded to me in the CO and I make it 825 to go with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB insta jams.

BB jams 8000....it wasn't an insta jam, but it was pretty quick.

Hero?

Personally I think that my initial bet + SB $$$ + blinds/antes make this a call. I was told that it was a lot closer than that.

I know this is basically a math and range question, but I thought I'd post it.

Your thoughts?

Regards,
Woodguy

[registrar]

Can't really help you. Don't know the site, or the villain, and don't do maths. I'd generally want to call. BB has a nice overlay over what is presumably a fairly wide range for SB if you fold, and you're folding a lot of what you open here, so I'd usually want to call. Slightly less inclined if I have a dominant stack, slightly more inclined if anything BB is likely to make my life difficult with a bigger stack.

As for ranges, perhaps anything pretty for SB but he doesn't matter much. For BB, AQs+, TT+, defintely no narrower than that IMO and possibly substantially wider. You say you haven't been overly active and I don't know how UB plays, but I'm pushing AJs+, 88+ in his shoes over a Woodguy LP raise in this situation because I've always thought of you as pretty laggy and those stats seem pretty laggy to me.

[BarryLyndon]

It is closer than you thought, but it's still a call.

[Foucault]

GB is pretty TAGgy, but he's also the sort to do something blatant like cold call SB's push with AA. I'd expect to see the following hands, not sure of their relative frequencies, but roughly in this order:

AK
TT-KK
AA
AQ/99
88
77/AJ

I'm guessing he pitches 88 and worse, maybe the 99 and AQ. Can't do math without frequencies, but I'd call this. If you know you're ahead of SB's range, and you've got one of the best hands in your range, then BB would have to be doing something wrong for you not to be ahead of him.

Oh and don't forget $40 cash overlay in bounties, that might actually be relevant here.

[TCA]

Ok all i have is a pen and paper but I'll have a go.

Agree with posters two ranges AQs+, TT+
Also AJs+, 88+
Both seem reasonable for BB to push with here so I'll look at both, if it were me Id probably be pushing with second range but you said hes pretty tight.

Im going to ignore SB who could have anything and just go you v BB (also side pot twice as big as main pot).

My maths could be way off here because Im doing most of it in my head.


7175 to call to win 11675. Therefore you are getting 1.63 to 1 to call.

Against AQs, TT+ I reckon you are about 41.8% to win, therefore you can call at 1.39 to 1.

Against AJs, 88+ you are about 50% to win so obviously you can call at 1 to 1.

Either way it looks like a call. Plus you will since have 5300 if you lose which isnt the end of the world.

[arod18]

Can we really ignore SBs range when factoring in whether this is a call or not?

[shaundeeb]

Just out of spite I call GB here though it's really thin. If you win even the sidepot here you are looking awesome and get rid of a good player to your left who will resteal from you when stacks get shallower.

[Foucault]

[ QUOTE ]
Can we really ignore SBs range when factoring in whether this is a call or not?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. We are definitely ahead, but the extent to which we are ahead will influence how much of an underlay we're willing to accept in the side pot. More importantly, SB's range determines the range with which BB will isolate.

Darcy,

My crystal ball is telling me that GB had AK, you made the call and eliminated him, and he berated you in the chat box, reminding you that he is 23rd best player in the world. What do I win?

[grafyx]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Can we really ignore SBs range when factoring in whether this is a call or not?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. We are definitely ahead, but the extent to which we are ahead will influence how much of an underlay we're willing to accept in the side pot. More importantly, SB's range determines the range with which BB will isolate.

Darcy,

My crystal ball is telling me that GB had AK, you made the call and eliminated him, and he berated you in the chat box, reminding you that he is 23rd best player in the world. What do I win?

[/ QUOTE ]

my fav GB quote "talk to me when you have 5% of my winnings". I guess he berates everyone. I thought I was special.

[TCA]

Believe me if I could do the maths here including SB i would have (only really know all in hu situations preflop and odds off top of my head) - Ignoring SB seemed like a good start though to get some figures going.

In many cases I think BB range could even be wider than these though as well since there is 3600ish in pot and just over 1800 to call, so he will be looking at 2 to 1 where he will often have best hand with a lot of hands if he can push you out. Since you havent been that active though I guess there isnt a big reason for him to think you are coming in very light so he probably thinks his hand is best anyway.