Different approach for preflop calling decisions

[LordMushroom2]

When in the BB facing a preflop raise it is common to decide whether to call or not (if your hand isn´t good enough for re-raising) by doing what your experience tells you the right thing to do is.

But wouldn´t it be a better approach to do it as you do when facing a bet postflop, calculate odds to hit an out on the flop, adjust for (reverse) implied odds and then compare with the odds given by the raiser?

[mvdgaag]

It would, but it would sure take a long time. Do stuff like that when you're not at the table and remember it when you can use it.

[LordMushroom2]

Thanks for the reply.

Do you know of any program that could make these off-table studies more efficient? Something like Pokerstove, only it calculates the chance of being ending up ahead on the flop.

[Mike]

Before we delve into making this more complicated than it should be, is there a basic fault with the way(s) we may arrive at an answer now? I think generally you will find that no matter what system you come up with, it really will not have any real advantage over the decision making process we now use - in practical terms.

[RobNottsUk]

You're assuming showdown poker, and having to make the best hand! Real poker is more subtle and complicated than that.

[mvdgaag]

A agree with RobNottsUk, but there is nothing wrong in mathematically analysing situations if you know their assumptions and limitations. It'll help your game a lot. Pokerstove helps great to find exact percentages (although I prefer memorized odds and the 2/4 rule using outs). Excel is very handy and I've made quite some sheets. You can play around with some estimates to see how it affects the outcome.

[LordMushroom2]

Correct me if I am wrong, but Pokerstove can only show you your chances of having the best hand at showdown, not the chances of ending up ahead on a specific non-river street.

Figuring out how many outs you have can be a bitch because you don´t know exactly what hand your opponent has. So I think Pokerstove is a useful tool to find out exactly how many outs you have on the turn, but preflop and on the flop I don´t think there are any programs that can provide the assistance I am looking for.

Excel could probably do it, but I don´t know if I have the skills or patience to create a spreadsheet that can calculate these things fast.

While the figures given by Pokerstove is not the Alpha and the Omega, I think its figures are an accurate foundation to build (reverse) implied odds on.

[ QUOTE ]
is there a basic fault with the way(s) we may arrive at an answer now?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think so. The current way is to do what experience tells us to do, but when your experience is limited, so will your ability to do the right thing be. And even if you are experienced and profitable, this area might be a leak of yours, but you haven´t noticed it because you are profitable despite the leak.

When a raise is out of the question on the flop or turn, one uses pot odds and adds (reverse) implied odds to see if you can call. I am suggesting to take the same mathematical approach to such situations preflop as well.

While the flop has 3 cards instead of 1, the principles of pot odds remain the same, so there is no theoretical reason why one should approach preflop-situations different from postflop-situations, it is just more difficult mathematically.

[mvdgaag]

[ QUOTE ]
While the flop has 3 cards instead of 1, the principles of pot odds remain the same, so there is no theoretical reason why one should approach preflop-situations different from postflop-situations, it is just more difficult mathematically.

[/ QUOTE ]

In allin situations (or see flop, go allin or fold there). Yes... Otherwise there is no point in trying to find EV for situations preflop. There will be too many decisions to make and too many things to factor in, there is just no awy you can get close to something usefull. Still there is nothing wrong with doing it so you can get a feel for how often you hit, how often your opponent will and if a situation might be profitable or not at all.

If you read Sklansky's NLHETAP you'll find a lot of examples where he takes some distributions of opponents actions/reactions and possible outcomes and makes a weighed EV calculation. This is usefull to do yourself, especially if you are reviewing some hands that you found hard to play or where you might make mistakes.

GL

[blaneMan]

Boy that's like asking a batter how he hits a baseball.

You're gonna lose your most money in the blinds, hands down. My calling requirements are totally different for cash than they are for tournies. I think your approach should be formulated after spending some time at a cash table, and for a tournament, your stack v. raiser's stack/position should be first and foremost on your calling decisions preflop.

The calculations and testing you are seeking are barely a litmus test for real play.

Poker is assessing information as it comes to you.

Good luck.

[weknowhowtolive]

If I have a hand preflop thats crap and im not getting the odds to play it, say a 2 or 3 gap off suiter, and im pretty sure someone is raising with a very specific hand range, i can figure I have the implied odds to take his stack if my low, unsuspicious flop hits.