NL10 - Good time to bluff river?

DannyOcean_ · #1 03-12-2007, 11:35 PM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($5.90)
UTG ($15.30)
MP ($6.50)
Hero ($8.30)
SB ($9.90)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.5, 2 folds, MP calls $0.40.

Flop: ($1.15) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $1, MP calls $1.

Turn: ($3.15) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks.

River: ($3.15) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP bets $0.5, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $3.65

I generally almost NEVER bluff in NL10 except for standard cbets. Other than those cbets, I bluff very rarely at all. However, I seriously considered a reraise on the river because villian showed almost no strength the entire hand. Pf and flop are standard I beleive, as is the turn check on an awful board. Is this a good spot to try to raise big and take villian off a mediocre hand? No reads.

Mal_Pais · #2 03-12-2007, 11:41 PM

Danny, I wouldn't bluff anybody at NL10 until I've seen them lay a hand down. And I call this river bet just so I can make a note on Villian.

DawnToDusk · #3 03-12-2007, 11:52 PM

It seems like you're asking if you can bluff? I think you got it wrong though. What you did do good is realized that your opponent hasn't shown any real strength throughout the hand. Alright. Well now take that knowledge and put your opponent on a range of hands. Got your range of hands? Great. Now lets garnish a bluff geared toward your range of hands you have for your opponent.

If you bluff raise $X amount what is your opponent going to put you on and what will he view his pot odds as? This is an essential question to sizing bluffs. The amount you bluff-raise will present itself to your opponent and they will put you on a specific range of hands.

We never bluff to get our opponent to fold. No no. We bluff to get our opponents to fold a specific range of hands. After I learned this my bluffs were a lot more succesful. I used to shove chips in the pass thinking "Oh my opponent is weak. Im going to get him to fold." That didn't work out as good as I thought it should of. Sometimes I just looked at him and said he was weak. Other times I didn't even put him on a range (obviously I was less skilled than I am now. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]).

Now this may be over-thinking NL10 a ton, but its better to start thinking about it at the lower limits than having to learn about it at the higher limits. If you make a mistake here it won't cost you as much as it will at the higher limits.

Mal_Pais · #4 03-12-2007, 11:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It seems like you're asking if you can bluff? I think you got it wrong though. What you did do good is realized that your opponent hasn't shown any real strength throughout the hand. Alright. Well now take that knowledge and put your opponent on a range of hands. Got your range of hands? Great. Now lets garnish a bluff geared toward your range of hands you have for your opponent.

If you bluff raise $X amount what is your opponent going to put you on and what will he view his pot odds as? This is an essential question to sizing bluffs. The amount you bluff-raise will present itself to your opponent and they will put you on a specific range of hands.

We never bluff to get our opponent to fold. No no. We bluff to get our opponents to fold a specific range of hands. After I learned this my bluffs were a lot more succesful. I used to shove chips in the pass thinking "Oh my opponent is weak. Im going to get him to fold." That didn't work out as good as I thought it should of. Sometimes I just looked at him and said he was weak. Other times I didn't even put him on a range (obviously I was less skilled than I am now. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]).

Now this may be over-thinking NL10 a ton, but its better to start thinking about it at the lower limits than having to learn about it at the higher limits. If you make a mistake here it won't cost you as much as it will at the higher limits.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's some gold right there.

DannyOcean_ · #5 03-13-2007, 12:30 AM

Thanks for the replies. Obviously, I'm miles behind his range on this board. But, as passively as he has played this hand, i put him a weak single pair, Kx or Qx most likely. maybe JT.

If you were going to try and take this pot from a single pair hand, how much would you bet to drive him out?

DawnToDusk · #6 03-13-2007, 02:03 AM

Definately he might be sitting there with a single pair. After looking at how the hand played it doesn't look like he likes his hand a lot either.

Lets look at some bets. A $2 raise makes the pot ~$5.50 and he has to call call $1.50 for $5.50. Thats 3.66-to-1 odds on his money. Thats pretty good odds for him and you might only get busted draws to fold or lower PP in his hand and the 2 for that. A $3 bet lets him win $6.50 for calling $2.50 more. That offers him 2.6-to-1 odds on his money. Not that great after you have shown some strength. You may get him to fold everything but a Kx hand now. Even then he might lay down the Kx hand if thats. What about a bet of $4? If you bet $4 he will have to call $3.50 to win $7.50. Thats offering him odds of 2.14. What will you get him to fold? Well everything except maybe his Kx hand again. Why not his Kx? Well he may now think you are trying to steal the pot from him with a bluff or may just think his hand is still good too. But he may also fold it.

So it looks like $2 raise isn't very effective in getting him to fold hands in the range gave him. $3 bet works a lot better and may get him to fold everything in his range. A $4 bet works too and may get him to fold everything in his range. So it looks like a $3 bet $4 does the same thing. Which one is right?

Well essentially the $3 and $4 bet do the same thing. With the $4 bet he may call with Kx and fold Kx too. Maybe the only difference with the $4 bet is that he folds Kx a small percentage more than the $3 bet. Well if thats the case the $3 bet is a better bluff. It lets you do eseentially the same thing with less risk. You may get called a little more with Kx but the extra money you have to pay for that added folding frequency isn't worth the risk.

<3s

the machine · #7 03-13-2007, 02:19 AM

i dont think i ever bluffed at 10NL and i started off playing that with a measly 10$ transfer. there basically is no point to bluffing at these stakes because you will be looked up very often. just value bet your good hands, get paid off, and move up.

however i do pay off this bet to see if he actually has anything for one because while its not a good idea to bluff these players they also tend to do it alot and youre getting a great price. as well as i want to know what hes leading the river giving you 7:1 on hte call. 5 BB is a worthy price for some good information about villain. how ever at 10NL i dont know how much the info will actually help since they are all mostly super donkish.

allaboutmyfetti · #8 03-13-2007, 02:31 AM

too lazy to read existing posts (i.e. grunchin)

I would rather call the river here and see wtf he's playing like this (pretty good note material) than try and push a villian off a hand at $10NL

Panic__NL · #9 03-13-2007, 06:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Danny, I wouldn't bluff anybody at NL10 until I've seen them lay a hand down. And I call this river bet just so I can make a note on Villian.

[/ QUOTE ]
QFT

mrt801 · #10 03-13-2007, 06:41 AM

Don't like bluffing this river. I agree with the above that you shouldn't bluff at 10NL.

First of all the check on the turn, doesn't show much strength. So you're bluff on the river (which is clearly a blanc) isn't really believable. You could do this when some overcard comes.

Ik would fire a second barrel on the turn with your open ended. Villain has check-called the flop and checks to you at the turn so probably hasn't got much of a hand. When you fire again at the turn, you get great fold equity and if he calls you still have 8 outs!
And a bluff on the river seems more believable as well!