10/15 NL- opinions on this laydown.....

[lbiars]

10/15 NL cash game (I know, wierd limit) at the Trop in AC. 7 players at the table, pretty much all of them ABC. My table image is tight. I'm in the big blind with 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Huge hand, I know. UTG raises to $45 pref (standard raise), one middle caller, and I call. Flop 322 rainbow. Bingo. Checked around. Turn Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] putting a flushdraw out there. I check, raiser checks, button bets $75. I call b/c I don't want to loser the riaser, which I don't. In fact, he raises $250 on top. I IMMEDIATELY put him on aces. button folds, I call with the intention of checkraising on the river. River is A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I check, he bets $400. $875 in the pot, I have $3500, he has me covered. I go into the tank and fold face up. Table goes wild, I'm an idiot, he's got AQ, blah, blah blah.....

Before calling me a whackjob, here's my reasoning: This guy is ABC, hasn't shown a bluff in the day and a half I played with him. Always bets out on the flop after raising preflop when 2-3 handed. So he checks the 322 flop? Would he do that with AQ? Not afraid of a free card...... hmmmmm. He's got something, that's for sure.

OK, so I've eliminated AQ, what's left? With KK he doesn't bet $400 on the river. With A2 he doesn't preflop raise. QQ is possible, but he probably bets the flop for fear of an A or K coming. At this point, I'm about 90% sure he's got AA or 33, with 5% going to a bluff and 5% going to AQ. Looking back, it's not that hard of a fold in my eyes. Granted I'm getting 3/1, but I have him on such a small range of hands (2 really), that I think folding is correct even though I flopped a boat with garbage.

Privately, he told me he had me and he doesn't understand how I could lay that down. He wouldn't say what he had, but the more I think about it, I think 33 is more likely than AA because of the check on the turn with 2 hearts out there. Or maybe he was saying that to make me feel better, who knows. At least 3 people on the table said he would've had all their money, which goes to show how bad at reading hands they are.

And yes, I could've pushed on the turn but why? He most likely lays down the aces, and if I could get another $1000-$1200 from him on the river and there are only 2 cards that beat me (I thought he had AA at the time), checking gives me the greatest equity.

Thoughts?

Lee


ps- By the way, this face-up fold helped me snap off no less than three bluffs from other guys at the table over the next 5 hours.