50nl TT bottom set

blinlk182 · #1 03-11-2007, 04:55 PM

Villain is super nitty 11.5/8.5 over 120 hands.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP ($34.20)
Button ($17.90)
SB ($74.85)
BB ($54)
Hero ($84.85)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero raises to $2, 3 folds, BB raises to $7, Hero calls $5.

Flop: ($14.25) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($14.25) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $12.5, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $26.75

Is flop check here horrible or standard against a super nitty villain?

Xanta · #2 03-11-2007, 05:01 PM

Flop check is OK here if he really is that nitty but why were you calling his 3bet with TT? Don't forget that your raise was UTG which should tighten his 3betting range even more. Fold pf.

He doesn't have AA or KK enough on the flop to profitably get it in, and the turn is a clear fold.

blinlk182 · #3 03-11-2007, 05:05 PM

Good point. Thanks.

matrix · #4 03-11-2007, 05:45 PM

bet the flop.

you FLOPPED A SET and didn't bet when checked to [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

why oh why would you call preflop if you fold the hand when you flop the goods???

bet flop - hope BB c/raises and we can get all the chips in.

as played call the turn, tho it doesn't really matter what you do here much.

gumpzilla · #5 03-11-2007, 05:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
bet the flop.

you FLOPPED A SET and didn't bet when checked to [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

why oh why would you call preflop if you fold the hand when you flop the goods???

[/ QUOTE ]

Because a solid chunk of hands that he's up against have "flopped the goods" as well. One pretty plausible range for this guy is JJ+, AK, to which we're pretty solidly behind right now! (6 better sets, 12 overpairs with six or ten outs, 16 straights) This is a pretty rare flop that hit everything. Calling preflop and getting something like T73 is obviously much different than this.

I actually think this hand was played pretty well. Folding preflop is okay, too, obviously.

Zagga · #6 03-11-2007, 06:35 PM

I think a preflop call is good for set value, but then you really should get your money in if you hit the set, no matter how scary the flop is and especially if PF raiser checks.

creamfillin · #7 03-11-2007, 06:50 PM

I don't care if we are playing against an asteroid. You flop a set, BET.

gumpzilla · #8 03-11-2007, 07:17 PM

So, for those arguing for a bet here, can you answer the following questions:

What range do you put your opponent on, taking the PT stats into account?

What do you hope to accomplish against that range?

Debaser · #9 03-12-2007, 04:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Is flop check here horrible or standard against a super nitty villain?

[/ QUOTE ]

His range is probably something like AA-JJ and AK. QQ and JJ have us crushed, KK has 10 outs and AA six. The problem is he's unlikely to stack off with AA on that board so if all the money goes in on the flop we're usually well behind.

I check behind here too. If the board pairs on the turn it's all going in cos now only QQ and JJ beat us and AA and KK lost most of their outs.

matrix · #10 03-12-2007, 06:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

why oh why would you call preflop if you fold the hand when you flop the goods???

[/ QUOTE ]

Because a solid chunk of hands that he's up against have "flopped the goods" as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't know what we have.

Unless he has AK QQ or JJ we get our money in good everytime here. On that flop he'll call bets with AQ KQ JTs KJs AA and KK and we're in good shape vs those.

If we are going to fold this flop - then why call preflop?

if his range here is AK JJ+ we're a 45/55 dog on the flop - and a 30/70 dog on this turn.

If his range also includes AQ here (which is quite likely) then we'er a 55/45 favourite on the flop - and a 45/55 dog on the turn which makes it criminal almost not to get it all in here.

pot is offering ~2:1 and we have implied odds of ~5:1 if we catch a pair on the river and get it all-in.

5:1 is enough to call the turn and stack him on the river if he has the straight and we fill up..

the problem with checking the flop here is that we have no idea what range he has now - and if we take a big turn bet as a sign of strength that has us WB and possibly drawing at one out and fold - then we are folding the best hand sometimes. He's betting all the hands that crush us on this turn - as well as a few that we are in good shape against.

He is never folding AK if the river pairs the board. calling just for boat value on this turn is +EV.

Given the dead money in the pot on this flop it's about neutral EV to get it all in on the flop even if his range is just AK JJ+.

Folding here is just scared and you'd be way better off folding preflop if you think villains range is JJ+ AK cos TT is a 2/1 dog preflop to that range.