NL100 - Push or check turn with oesfd

[Jojje_2k]

villian's stats: 22/17/2.3 after 30 hands
My stats: 20/15/1.9

Noting special happend so far on this table.


Hold'em NL ($0.50/$1)
Seat 4 is the button.

Seat 1: Hero ($200.25 in chips)
Seat 2: Tunnan74 ($23.50 in chips)
Seat 3: omgiamall ($96 in chips)
Seat 4: Norton71 ($98.50 in chips)
Seat 5: StorQK ($94 in chips)
Seat 6: SFIGATTO ($103 in chips)

StorQK: posts small blind $0.50
SFIGATTO: posts big blind $1

---- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Hero [Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Jc[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]

Hero: raises to $4
Tunnan74: folds
omgiamall: calls $4
Norton71: folds
StorQK: folds
SFIGATTO: calls $3

----- FLOP ----- [T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]

SFIGATTO: bets $8
Hero: raises to $28
omgiamall: fold
SFIGATTO: calls $20

----- Turn ----- [T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]][2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]
SFIGATTO: checks
Hero?

[sixhigh]

checks behind. He isn't going anywhere when you push.

[Djeorge]

I'd maybe raise a little more on the flop, to $32 or something but I'm not sure.

I'm inclined to push the turn there because I'm sure you have a fair amount of FE. It looks like KQ/KJ is fairly likely, you may run into the odd 55 but I thik he's folding a lot of the time here.

[Jojje_2k]

How often must he fold to make a push ev+?

How do you calculate that

[restrikt]

Shove is good.

[Djeorge]

[ QUOTE ]
How often must he fold to make a push ev+?

How do you calculate that

[/ QUOTE ]
The pot is $68 and effective stacks are about $70. If we have 15 outs then we win 15/46 of the itme when called so you get back 15/46(68 + 2*70)=$68 on average when you are called, which is about the size of the bet. Given that it's about EV neutral when you are called, if he folds almost any non-zero amount of the time, it's +EV. It's just the question of how +EV checking is which isn't so easy to calculate.

[illuminati]

He's not folding very often on this board texture. I prob check here and felt him on an offsuit 9 river. It actually looks like he might have a flush draw - I see the flop donk with it fairly often.

[Tickner]

any history with villian at all?

this all depends on how he percieves you.

checking and shoving are both correct under different sets of circumstances. tough to say anything more here imo.

[Perkin]

[ QUOTE ]
How often must he fold to make a push ev+?

How do you calculate that

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's run it 100 times.
He folds X amount of times and calls (100-X) amount of times.

When he folds you win the $68, X*68 over 100 times.

When he calls, you probably have 13 clean outs. (assuming he doesn't have a higher flush draw and that those 2 outs that pair the board are neutral EV)
When he calls you lose 32/47 times for a total loss of (100-X)* 32/47 * -71 = X*48.34 - 4834
When he calls you win 13/47 times for a total win of
(100-X)* 13/47 * (68+71) = X*38.45 + 3845

Add these all up and you get:
X*68 + X*48.34 - 4834 + X*38.45 + 3845
= X*155 - 989

This has to be >0, that happens when X > 6.4.

HOWEVER. It's not enough for it to be +EV, it also has to be more profitable than checking. To calculate the EV of checking we have to make some assumptions (I made up these):
-If you don't make your draw, then you lose the hand (but no more money).
-If you make your straight, you extract on average $50 from him on the river.
-If you make your flush (7 outs) you extract $40 from him on the river (he can't put you on a flush draw easily)
-5/2 of clubs are neutral EV.

Your EV based on these assumptions is:
32/47*0 + 8/47*(68+50) + 7/47(68+40)
= 36 (over 1 hand, 3600 over 100 hands)

For pushing to be the right choice the following needs to apply: X*155 - 989 > 3600 --> X > 30.

He has to fold over 30% of the times to make pushing the correct thing to do under these assumptions.
Obviously the more he folds on the turn, the less he pays you on the river when you make your draw making this whole post kinda pointless [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

(This was a lot of math, feel free to correct me but I'm probably too lazy to edit this post, lol)

[Jojje_2k]

WOW thank u very much