OT: FTOP Do you know how to play with the cards face up?

[xPeru]

200th post, I’m now “enthusiast” – I like it, it implies a lot of effort applied with limited skill – that’s me. When I was a CEO I valued enthusiasm highly, enthusiasts often look at things in a different way and they are great evangelists for their subject. So without the skill to write about strategy (I will definitely wait for Poo-Bah status) I would like to look at the FTOP from an enthusiast’s perspective. Some of this will be intuitive to old hands, and a statement of the bleeding obvious; for newbies I think it will be surprising; but the responses and argument will come from the Enthusiasts!

To Restate FTOP:

"Every time you play a hand differently from the way you would have played it if you could see all your opponents' cards, they gain; and every time you play your hand the same way you would have played it if you could see all their cards, they lose. Conversely, every time opponents play their hands differently from the way they would have if they could see all your cards, you gain; and every time they play their hands the same way they would have played if they could see all your cards, you lose." [pp17-18]

Most new players don’t know how to play correctly even with the cards face up! It’s not as easy as it looks …

Example 1. Let’s look at a hand with 4 players, equal stacks, all cards face up: How will the betting go?

UTG AcKc
Bn 6h6s
SB 9d8d
BB QsJs

Are you sure?

UTG shoves, All fold!!!

If Bn calls, BB has to call because he is priced in. So even though 66 is ahead of AKs, Bn has to fold because he will price in BB, at which point he is only 30.04% to win the hand, and he needs better than 33% to make the odds pay off. Even with the cards face up, the best hand pre-flop won’t necessarily win.

Example 2. Now let’s change UTG’s stack size and see what difference it makes. How does the betting go now?

UTG AcKc $900
Bn 6h6s $3600
SB 9d8d $3600
BB QsJs $3600

All fold to BB!!!

With the cards face up, Bn can call UTG’s shove because SB and BB won’t be priced in. UTG will be an underdog, so he can’t shove. Can Bn shove? – No because, SB will fold and BB will call (49% to 51% - yes, the 6s are a dog to QJs here). If SB called, the numbers are 66 – 28.4%, 98s – 30.21%, QJs – 41%.

Example 3. OK, it’s now the bubble of a standard Pokerstars STT with blinds at 100/200.

Now, it’s correct for UTG to shove again! But who calls/raises over the top? Yes, Bn finally get’s his chance to shove and SB and BB can now correctly fold. ICM tells us so …

Example 4. Now let’s add some reads, it’s now a cash game, equal stacks of 30BB.

Bn is a degenerate gambler, regular poster on 2+2 and is giving up poker to get a proper job. How does the betting go now?

Yep, UTG shoves, Bn calls, SB folds, BB calls.(UTG is 38.82%, Bn is 30.04%, BB is 30.85%) BB is priced in because of the dead money blinds, and the fact that he is only paying 28BBs to call.

Example 5: Finally let’s add some Bankroll Management:

UTG has his whole roll on the table, he knows Bn is going to gamble and so he will be putting his whole roll out there on a less than 40% chance of winning. What happens now?

UTG folds, Bn shoves, SB folds and BB calls.

Conclusion:

Example 1 tells us to learn probabilities as they apply to hand ranges and multiple players given the intransitive nature of poker hands.

Example 2 tells us that pot odds matter a lot.

Example 3 tells us that cEV and $EV are different, and we need to study ICM to know how and when.

Example 4 tells us that reads can change everything – player notes are vital and we should use every resource at our disposal to give us an edge (eg PokerOffice, PokerTracker)

Example 5 tells us that BRM affects how we play. It’s not just about the risk of ruin, it’s about playing good poker.

Same cards; all face up; 5 different outcomes. More are possible if we change the position of each player. If we first learn how to play with the cards face up, maybe we enthusiasts will have a chance of winning when they are face down!

NB: numbers were calculated using texasholdemcalculator, SNGPT and PokerStove (and Excel!).

[fluorescenthippo]

wtf are the blinds in the first example. i have no idea what is going on

[ManChild]

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wtf are the blinds in the first example. i have no idea what is going on

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its because you live in the past and have yet to come to our new understanding of poker in which there is no need to know the blinds in hand #1

[xPeru]

Truly Zen, there is no need to know the blinds in hand 1.

The point is to take FTOP and add one piece of information at a time to show how the play changes. Hand 1 assume the BB is twice the size of the small blind ...

[Pudge714]

It's really weird that you give 4 handed examples in STTF.
Bankroll management shouldn't effect how you play. If you aren't rolled for a game you shouldn't be playing in it.

[xPeru]

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It's really weird that you give 4 handed examples in STTF.

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Did this because we spend so much time looking at bubble situations, so I could use the same example hand for a bubble situation.

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Bankroll management shouldn't effect how you play. If you aren't rolled for a game you shouldn't be playing in it.

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Of course you are right Pudge. IMHO BRM and Tilt are probably the two biggest barriers newbs face in becoming good players. (wtf Mike Matusow). Example 5 shows that good BRM is an essential poker skill that can be derived from FTOP. As I said in the introduction, for old hands some of this is a statement of the bleeding obvious.