5/10 big draw on turn

ahnuld · #1 03-09-2007, 10:33 PM

I dunno, this just felt wrong after I did it. Thoughts? Villan is total unknown.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($1572)
UTG ($2779)
MP ($1072)
CO ($1778.25)
Button ($765)
SB ($2459.75)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $5.
2 folds, CO raises to $20, 1 fold, SB (poster) calls $15, Hero calls $10.

Flop: ($60) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $50, CO raises to $150, SB folds, Hero calls $100.

Turn: ($360) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $235, Hero calls $1562 (All-In).

Final Pot: $2157

jrforman · #2 03-09-2007, 10:41 PM

How often you make that kind of overbet on the turn like that with the goods?

ahnuld · #3 03-09-2007, 10:47 PM

1325 into 830. So yeah, id play a set this way, maybe repop it on the flop, and id definitely play 97 this way.

jrforman · #4 03-09-2007, 11:00 PM

I like it a lot then because turn makes a lot of hands you could call flop with and seems likely you get villain to fold enough times plus make your hand on river to make the play profitable.

Josh. · #5 03-09-2007, 11:01 PM

i'm really torn here. your draws all suck. your flush draw is obvious and could easily be over-flushed, and you have a one-card double gutter now, so you don't figure to have much in the way of implied odds.

so i ran a sim vs his likely shove calling range. it's party poker and he minraised preflop so i think he'll gamble with some draws he might not be getting odds with, and AA, KK, and AQ.

Board: Qs 8d 6d Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.066% 70.63% 00.44% 1212 7.50 { QQ+, 88, 66, AdKd, AQs, AdJd, KdQd, QdJd, QTs, Q8s, JdTd, Jd9d, 97s, 86s }
Hand 1: 28.934% 28.50% 00.44% 489 7.50 { 9d5d }

the board is really odd, in that there are 4 cards one space apart. so LOTS of flush draws have either made a straight, have a double gutter, or at least one gutter. so you don't figure to fold out as many bigger flush draws as you'd like to think.

so you're laying 1562 at 29% equity with 595 dead money in there. it works out that you need him to fold about 50% of the time. that's a lot considering he raised the flop and bet the turn. you have no real reason to think he has anything less than a big made hand or a big draw.

if you could call the $235 all-in, you'd need 13 outs to call. best case you have 15. and your draw basically has reverse implied odds.

so i guess you could just fold, as weird as that sounds

ahnuld · #6 03-09-2007, 11:10 PM

josh, thnx for running those numbers. But I think most unknowns at 5/10 would fold AA KK AQ here so could you run the numbers one more time without those hands calling?

Josh. · #7 03-09-2007, 11:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
josh, thnx for running those numbers. But I think most unknowns at 5/10 would fold AA KK AQ here so could you run the numbers one more time without those hands calling?

[/ QUOTE ]

27%. doesn't really tell us much. you'll have lower equity (all your outs are clean vs those hands) but higher fold equity.

you needed to take it down without showdown 48%, now 51%